The potential for REDD+ to reduce forest degradation in Vietnam

Natural forests in Vietnam have experienced rapid declines in the last 70 years, as a result of degradation from logging and conversion of natural forests to timber and rubber plantations. Degradation of natural forests leads to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services, impacting the livelihoods of surrounding communities. Efforts to address ongoing loss of natural forests, through mechanisms such as Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+), require an understanding of the links between forest degradation and the livelihoods of local communities, which have rarely been studied in Vietnam. We combined information from livelihood surveys, remote sensing and forest inventories around a protected natural forest area in North Central Vietnam. For forest-adjacent communities, we found natural forests contributed an average of 28% of total household income with plantation forests contributing an additional 15%. Although officially prohibited, logging contributed more than half of the total income derived from natural forests. Analysis of Landsat images over the period 1990 to 2014 combined with forest inventory data, demonstrates selective logging was leading to ongoing degradation of natural forests resulting in loss of 3.3±0.8 Mg biomass ha-1 yr-1 across the protected area. This is equivalent to 1.5% yr-1 of total forest biomass, with rates as high as 3% yr-1 in degraded and easily accessible parts of the protected area. We estimate that preventing illegal logging would incur local opportunity costs of USD $4.10±0.90 per Mg CO2, similar to previous estimates for tropical forest protected areas and substantially less than the opportunity costs in timber or agricultural concessions. Our analysis suggests activities to reduce forest degradation in protected areas are likely to be financially viable through Vietnam's REDD+ program

Robust Amazon precipitation projections in climate models that capture realistic land–atmosphere interactions

Land–atmosphere interactions have an important influence on Amazon precipitation (P), but evaluation of these processes in climate models has so far been limited. We analysed relationships between Amazon P and evapotranspiration (ET) in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models to evaluate controls on surface moisture fluxes and assess the credibility of regional P projections. We found that only 13 out of 38 models captured an energy limitation on Amazon ET, in agreement with observations, while 20 models instead showed Amazon ET is limited by water availability. Models that misrepresented controls on ET over the historical period projected both large increases and decreases in Amazon P by 2100, likely amplified by unrealistic land–atmosphere interactions. In contrast, large future changes in annual and seasonal-scale Amazon P were suppressed in models that simulated realistic controls on ET, due to modulating land–atmosphere interactions. By discounting projections from models that simulated unrealistic ET controls, our analysis halved uncertainty in basin-wide future P change. The ensemble mean of plausible models showed a robust drying signal over the eastern Amazon and in the dry season, and P increases in the west. Finally, we showed that factors controlling Amazon ET evolve over time in realistic models, reducing climate stability and leaving the region vulnerable to further change

Evapotranspiration in the Amazon: spatial patterns, seasonality, and recent trends in observations, reanalysis, and climate models

Water recycled through transpiring forests influences the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Amazon and has been shown to play a role in the initiation of the wet season. However, due to the challenges and costs associated with measuring evapotranspiration (ET) directly and high uncertainty in remote-sensing ET retrievals, the spatial and temporal patterns in Amazon ET remain poorly understood. In this study, we estimated ET over the Amazon and 10 sub-basins using a catchment-balance approach, whereby ET is calculated directly as the balance between precipitation, runoff, and change in groundwater storage. We compared our results with ET from remote-sensing datasets, reanalysis, models from Phase 5 and Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6 respectively), and in situ flux tower measurements to provide a comprehensive overview of current understanding. Catchment-balance analysis revealed a gradient in ET from east to west/southwest across the Amazon Basin, a strong seasonal cycle in basin-mean ET primarily controlled by net incoming radiation, and no trend in ET over the past 2 decades. This approach has a degree of uncertainty, due to errors in each of the terms of the water budget; therefore, we conducted an error analysis to identify the range of likely values. Satellite datasets, reanalysis, and climate models all tended to overestimate the magnitude of ET relative to catchment-balance estimates, underestimate seasonal and interannual variability, and show conflicting positive and negative trends. Only two out of six satellite and model datasets analysed reproduced spatial and seasonal variation in Amazon ET, and captured the same controls on ET as indicated by catchment-balance analysis. CMIP5 and CMIP6 ET was inconsistent with catchment-balance estimates over all scales analysed. Overall, the discrepancies between data products and models revealed by our analysis demonstrate a need for more ground-based ET measurements in the Amazon as well as a need to substantially improve model representation of this fundamental component of the Amazon hydrological cycle

Using Remote Sensing to Map the Risk of Human Monkeypox Virus in the Congo Basin

Although the incidence of human monkeypox has greatly increased in Central Africa over the last decade, resources for surveillance remain extremely limited. We conducted a geospatial analysis using existing data to better inform future surveillance efforts. Using active surveillance data collected between 2005 and 2007, we identified locations in Sankuru district, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) where there have been one or more cases of human monkeypox. To assess what taxa constitute the main reservoirs of monkeypox, we tested whether human cases were associated with (i) rope squirrels (Funisciurus sp.), which were implicated in monkeypox outbreaks elsewhere in the DRC in the 1980s, or (ii) terrestrial rodents in the genera Cricetomys and Graphiurus, which are believed to be monkeypox reservoirs in West Africa. Results suggest that the best predictors of human monkeypox cases are proximity to dense forests and associated habitat preferred by rope squirrels. The risk of contracting monkeypox is significantly greater near sites predicted to be habitable for squirrels (OR = 1.32; 95% CI 1.08–1.63). We recommend that semi-deciduous rainforests with oil-palm, the rope squirrel’s main food source, be prioritized for monitoring

Impacts of large-scale climatic disturbances on the terrestrial carbon cycle

BACKGROUND: The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere steadily increases as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions but with large interannual variability caused by the terrestrial biosphere. These variations in the CO(2 )growth rate are caused by large-scale climate anomalies but the relative contributions of vegetation growth and soil decomposition is uncertain. We use a biogeochemical model of the terrestrial biosphere to differentiate the effects of temperature and precipitation on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) during the two largest anomalies in atmospheric CO(2 )increase during the last 25 years. One of these, the smallest atmospheric year-to-year increase (largest land carbon uptake) in that period, was caused by global cooling in 1992/93 after the Pinatubo volcanic eruption. The other, the largest atmospheric increase on record (largest land carbon release), was caused by the strong El Niño event of 1997/98. RESULTS: We find that the LPJ model correctly simulates the magnitude of terrestrial modulation of atmospheric carbon anomalies for these two extreme disturbances. The response of soil respiration to changes in temperature and precipitation explains most of the modelled anomalous CO(2 )flux. CONCLUSION: Observed and modelled NEE anomalies are in good agreement, therefore we suggest that the temporal variability of heterotrophic respiration produced by our model is reasonably realistic. We therefore conclude that during the last 25 years the two largest disturbances of the global carbon cycle were strongly controlled by soil processes rather then the response of vegetation to these large-scale climatic events

Model parameterization to simulate and compare the PAR absorption potential of two competing plant species

Mountain pastures dominated by the pasture grass Setaria sphacelata in the Andes of southern Ecuador are heavily infested by southern bracken (Pteridium arachnoideum), a major problem for pasture management. Field observations suggest that bracken might outcompete the grass due to its competitive strength with regard to the absorption of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). To understand the PAR absorption potential of both species, the aims of the current paper are to (1) parameterize a radiation scheme of a two-big-leaf model by deriving structural (LAI, leaf angle parameter) and optical (leaf albedo, transmittance) plant traits for average individuals from field surveys, (2) to initialize the properly parameterized radiation scheme with realistic global irradiation conditions of the Rio San Francisco Valley in the Andes of southern Ecuador, and (3) to compare the PAR absorption capabilities of both species under typical local weather conditions. Field data show that bracken reveals a slightly higher average leaf area index (LAI) and more horizontally oriented leaves in comparison to Setaria. Spectrometer measurements reveal that bracken and Setaria are characterized by a similar average leaf absorptance. Simulations with the average diurnal course of incoming solar radiation (1998–2005) and the mean leaf–sun geometry reveal that PAR absorption is fairly equal for both species. However, the comparison of typical clear and overcast days show that two parameters, (1) the relation of incoming diffuse and direct irradiance, and (2) the leaf–sun geometry play a major role for PAR absorption in the two-big-leaf approach: Under cloudy sky conditions (mainly diffuse irradiance), PAR absorption is slightly higher for Setaria while under clear sky conditions (mainly direct irradiance), the average bracken individual is characterized by a higher PAR absorption potential. (∼74 MJ m−2 year−1). The latter situation which occurs if the maximum daily irradiance exceeds 615 W m−2 is mainly due to the nearly orthogonal incidence of the direct solar beam onto the horizontally oriented frond area which implies a high amount of direct PAR absorption during the noon maximum of direct irradiance. Such situations of solar irradiance favoring a higher PAR absorptance of bracken occur in ∼36% of the observation period (1998–2005). By considering the annual course of PAR irradiance in the San Francisco Valley, the clear advantage of bracken on clear days (36% of all days) is completely compensated by the slight but more frequent advantage of Setaria under overcast conditions (64% of all days). This means that neither bracken nor Setaria show a distinct advantage in PAR absorption capability under the current climatic conditions of the study area