The impact of direct acting antivirals on hepatitis C virus disease burden and associated costs in four european countries

Background and Aims We assessed the clinical and economic impact of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) in England, Italy, Romania and Spain.Methods An HCV progression Markov model was developed considering DAA eligibility and population data during the years 2015-2019. The period of time to recover the investment in DAAs was calculated as the cost saved by avoiding estimated clinical events for 1000 standardized treated patients. A delayed treatment scenario because of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was also developed.Results The estimated number of avoided hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensated cirrhosis and liver transplantations over a 20-year time horizon was: 1,057 in England; 1,221 in Italy; 1,211 in Romania; and 1,103 in Spain for patients treated during 2015-2016 and 640 in England; 626 in Italy; 739 in Romania; and 643 in Spain for patients treated during 2017-2019. The cost-savings ranged from euro 45 to euro 275 million. The investment needed to expand access to DAAs in 2015-2019 is estimated to be recovered in 6.5 years in England; 5.4 years in Italy; 6.7 years in Romania; and 4.5 years in Spain. A delay in treatment because of COVID-19 will increase liver mortality in all countries.Conclusion Direct-acting antivirals have significant clinical benefits and can bring substantial cost-savings over the next 20 years, reaching a Break-even point in a short period of time. When pursuing an exit strategy from strict lockdown measures for COVID-19, providing DAAs should remain high on the list of priorities in order to maintain HCV elimination efforts

A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression to estimate undiagnosed individuals with HCV in different Italian regions

Background: Although an increase in hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence from Northern to Southern Italy has been reported, the burden of asymptomatic individuals in different Italian regions is currently unknown. Methods: A probabilistic approach, including a Markov chain for liver disease progression, was applied to estimate current HCV viraemic burden. The model defined prevalence by geographic area using an estimated annual historical HCV incidence by age, treatment rate, and migration rate from the Italian National database. Viraemic infection by age group was estimated for each region by main HCV transmission routes of individuals for stage F0–F3 (i.e. patients without liver cirrhosis and thus potentially asymptomatic) and F4 (patients with liver cirrhosis, thus potentially symptomatic). Results: By January 2020, it was estimated that there were 409,184 Italian individuals with HCV (prevalence of 0.68%; 95% CI: 0.54–0.82%), of which 300,171 (0.50%; 95% CI: 0.4–0.6%) were stage F0–F3. Considering all individuals with HCV in stage F0–F3, the geographical distributions (expressed as the proportion of HCV infected individuals by macroarea within the overall estimated number of F0–F3 individuals and prevalence values, expressed as the percentage of individuals with HCV versus the overall number of individuals for each macroarea) were as follows: North 42.1% (0.45%; 95% CI: 0.36–0.55%), Central 24.1% (0.61%; 95% CI: 0.48–0.74%), South 23.2% (0.50%; 95% CI: 0.4–0.61%), and the Isles 10.6% (0.49%; 95% CI: 0.39–0.59%). The population of people who inject drugs accounted for 50.4% of all individuals infected (F0–F3). Undiagnosed individuals (F0–F3) were ~ 15 years younger (⁓ 50 years) compared with patients with stage F4 (⁓ 65 years), with similar age distributions across macroareas. In contrast to what has been reported on HCV epidemiology in Italy, an increasing trend in the proportion of potentially undiagnosed individuals with HCV (absolute number within the F0–F3) from South (23.2%) to North (42.1%) emerged, independent of similar regional prevalence values. Conclusion: This targeted approach, which addresses the specific profile of undiagnosed individuals, is helpful in planning effective elimination strategies by region in Italy and could be a useful methodology for other countries in implementing their elimination plans

Estimated prevalence of undiagnosed HCV infected individuals in Italy: A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression

Background: The universal treatment of diagnosed patients with chronic HCV infection has been widely conducted in Italy since 2017. However, the pool of individuals diagnosed but yet to be treated in Italy has been estimated to end around 2025, leaving a significant proportion of infected individuals undiagnosed/without care. Estimates of this population are currently unknown. Methods: A probabilistic modelling approach was applied to estimate annual historical HCV incident cases by their age-group (0–100 years) distribution from available literature and Italian National database (1952 to October 2019). Viraemic infection rates were modelled on the main infection routes in Italy: people who inject drugs (PWID), tattoos, sexual transmission, glass syringe use, blood transfusion and vertical transmission. Annual liver fibrosis stage transition probabilities were modelled using a Markov model. The number of HCV viraemic asymptomatic (fibrosis stage F0-F3:potentially undiagnosed/unlinked to care) and symptomatic (fibrosis stage F4: potentially linked to care) individuals was estimated. Results: By October 2019, total viraemic HCV individuals in Italy (excluding treated patients since 1992) were estimated to be 410,775 (0.68 % of current population of Italy; 95 % CI: 0.64−0.71%, based on the current Italian population), of which 281,809 (0.47 %; 95 % CI:0.35−0.60%) were fibrosis stage F0-F3. Among different high risk groups in stage F0-F3, the following distribution was estimated: PWID; 52.0 % (95 % CI:37.9–66.6 %), tattoo; 28.8 % (95 % CI:23–32.3 %), sexual transmission; 12.0 % (95 % CI:9.6–13.7 %), glass syringe and transfusion; 6.4 % (95 % CI:2.4–17.8 %), and vertical transmission; 0.7 % (95 % CI:0.4–1.2 %). Conclusion: Under the assumption that most untreated HCV-infected individuals with stage F0-F3 are undiagnosed, more than 280,000 individuals are undiagnosed and/or unlinked to care in Italy. Marked heterogeneity across the major routes of HCV transmission was estimated. This modelling approach may be a useful tool to characterise the HCV epidemic profile also in other countries, based on country specific epidemiology and HCV main transmission routes

Liver function following hepatitis C virus eradication by direct acting antivirals in patients with liver cirrhosis: data from the PITER cohort

Background: The development of direct-acting antivirals (DAA) for HCV has revolutionized the treatment of HCV, including its treatment in patients with HIV coinfection. The aim of this study was to compare the changes in liver function between coinfected and monoinfected patients with cirrhosis who achieved HCV eradication by DAA. Methods: Patients with pre-treatment diagnosis of HCV liver cirrhosis, consecutively enrolled in the multicenter PITER cohort, who achieved a sustained virological response 12 weeks after treatment cessation (SVR12) were analysed. Changes in Child-Pugh (C-P) class and the occurrence of a decompensating event was prospectively evaluated after the end of DAA treatment. Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate factors independently associated with changes in liver function following viral eradication. Results: We evaluated 1350 patients, of whom 1242 HCV monoinfected (median follow-up 24.7, range 6.8–47.5 months after viral eradication) and 108 (8%) HCV/HIV coinfected (median follow-up 27.1, range 6.0–44.6). After adjusting for age, sex, HCV-genotype, HBsAg positivity and alcohol use, HIV was independently associated with a more advanced liver disease before treatment (C-P class B/C vs A) (OR: 3.73, 95% CI:2.00–6.98). Following HCV eradication, C-P class improved in 17/20 (85%) coinfected patients (from B to A and from C to B) and in 53/82 (64.6%) monoinfected patients (from B to A) (p = 0.08). C-P class worsened in 3/56 coinfected (5.3%) (from A to B) and in 84/1024 (8.2%) monoinfected patients (p = 0.45) (from A to B or C and from B to C). Baseline factors independently associated with C-P class worsening were male sex (HR = 2.00; 95% CI = 1.18–3.36), platelet count < 100,000/μl (HR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.08–2.85) and increased INR (HR = 2.41; 95% CI 1.51–3.84). Following viral eradication, in 7 of 15 coinfected (46.6%) and in 61 of 133 (45.8%) monoinfected patients with previous history of decompensation, a new decompensating event occurred. A first decompensating event was recorded in 4 of 93 (4.3%) coinfected and in 53 of 1109 (4.8%) monoinfected patients (p = 0.83). Conclusions: Improvement of liver function was observed following HCV eradication in the majority of patients with cirrhosis; however viral eradication did not always mean cure of liver disease in both monoinfected and coinfected patients with advanced liver disease

Liver function following hepatitis C virus eradication by direct acting antivirals in patients with liver cirrhosis: data from the PITER cohort

Background: The development of direct-acting antivirals (DAA) for HCV has revolutionized the treatment of HCV, including its treatment in patients with HIV coinfection. The aim of this study was to compare the changes in liver function between coinfected and monoinfected patients with cirrhosis who achieved HCV eradication by DAA. Methods: Patients with pre-treatment diagnosis of HCV liver cirrhosis, consecutively enrolled in the multicenter PITER cohort, who achieved a sustained virological response 12 weeks after treatment cessation (SVR12) were analysed. Changes in Child-Pugh (C-P) class and the occurrence of a decompensating event was prospectively evaluated after the end of DAA treatment. Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate factors independently associated with changes in liver function following viral eradication. Results: We evaluated 1350 patients, of whom 1242 HCV monoinfected (median follow-up 24.7, range 6.8–47.5 months after viral eradication) and 108 (8%) HCV/HIV coinfected (median follow-up 27.1, range 6.0–44.6). After adjusting for age, sex, HCV-genotype, HBsAg positivity and alcohol use, HIV was independently associated with a more advanced liver disease before treatment (C-P class B/C vs A) (OR: 3.73, 95% CI:2.00–6.98). Following HCV eradication, C-P class improved in 17/20 (85%) coinfected patients (from B to A and from C to B) and in 53/82 (64.6%) monoinfected patients (from B to A) (p = 0.08). C-P class worsened in 3/56 coinfected (5.3%) (from A to B) and in 84/1024 (8.2%) monoinfected patients (p = 0.45) (from A to B or C and from B to C). Baseline factors independently associated with C-P class worsening were male sex (HR = 2.00; 95% CI = 1.18–3.36), platelet count < 100,000/μl (HR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.08–2.85) and increased INR (HR = 2.41; 95% CI 1.51–3.84). Following viral eradication, in 7 of 15 coinfected (46.6%) and in 61 of 133 (45.8%) monoinfected patients with previous history of decompensation, a new decompensating event occurred. A first decompensating event was recorded in 4 of 93 (4.3%) coinfected and in 53 of 1109 (4.8%) monoinfected patients (p = 0.83). Conclusions: Improvement of liver function was observed following HCV eradication in the majority of patients with cirrhosis; however viral eradication did not always mean cure of liver disease in both monoinfected and coinfected patients with advanced liver disease

Temporal Logic Based Monitoring of Assisted Ventilation in Intensive Care Patients

We introduce a novel approach to automatically detect ineffective breathing efforts in patients in intensive care subject to assisted ventilation. The method is based on synthesising from data temporal logic formulae which are able to discriminate between normal and ineffective breaths. The learning procedure consists in first constructing statistical models of normal and abnormal breath signals, and then in looking for an optimally discriminating formula. The space of formula structures, and the space of parameters of each formula, are searched with an evolutionary algorithm and with a Bayesian optimisation scheme, respectively. We present here our preliminary results and we discuss our future research directions.\&nbsp;</p

Trends in chronic hepatitis B virus infection in Italy over a 10-year period: Clues from the nationwide PITER and MASTER cohorts toward elimination

Objectives: The study measures trends in the profile of patients with chronic hepatitis B virus linked to care in Italy. Methods: A cross-sectional, multicenter, observational cohort (PITER cohort) of consecutive patients with hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) over the period 2019-2021 from 46 centers was evaluated. The reference was the MASTER cohort collected over the years 2012-2015. Standard statistical methods were used. Results: The PITER cohort enrolled 4583 patients, of whom 21.8% were non-Italian natives. Compared with those in MASTER, the patients were older and more often female. The prevalence of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) declined (7.2% vs 12.3; P &lt;0.0001) and that of anti-hepatitis D virus (HDV) remained stable (9.3% vs 8.3%). In both cohorts, about 25% of the patients had cirrhosis, and those in the PITER cohort were older. HBeAg-positive was 5.0% vs 12.6% (P &lt;0.0001) and anti-HDV positive 24.8% vs 17.5% (P &lt;0.0017). In the logistic model, the variables associated with cirrhosis were anti-HDV-positive (odds ratio = 10.08; confidence interval 7.63-13.43), age, sex, and body mass index; the likelihood of cirrhosis was reduced by 40% in the PITER cohort. Among non-Italians, 12.3% were HBeAg-positive (vs 23.4% in the MASTER cohort; P &lt;0.0001), and 12.3% were anti-HDV-positive (vs 11.1%). Overall, the adherence to the European Association for the Study of the Liver recommendations for antiviral treatment increased over time. Conclusion: Chronic hepatitis B virus infection appears to be in the process of becoming under control in Italy; however, HDV infection is still a health concern in patients with cirrhosis and in migrants

Clinical features and comorbidity pattern of HCV infected migrants compared to native patients in care in Italy: A real-life evaluation of the PITER cohort

Background: Direct-acting antivirals are highly effective for the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, regardless race/ethnicity. We aimed to evaluate demographic, virological and clinical data of HCV-infected migrants vs. natives consecutively enrolled in the PITER cohort. Methods: Migrants were defined by country of birth and nationality that was different from Italy. Mann-Whitney U test, Chi-squared test and multiple logistic regression were used. Results: Of 10,669 enrolled patients, 301 (2.8%) were migrants: median age 47 vs. 62 years, (p &lt; 0.001), females 56.5% vs. 45.3%, (p &lt; 0.001), HBsAg positivity 3.8% vs. 1.4%, (p &lt; 0.05). Genotype 1b was prevalent in both groups, whereas genotype 4 was more prevalent in migrants (p &lt; 0.05). Liver disease severity and sustained virologic response (SVR) were similar. A higher prevalence of comorbidities was reported for natives compared to migrants (p &lt; 0.05). Liver disease progression cofactors (HBsAg, HIV coinfection, alcohol abuse, potential metabolic syndrome) were present in 39.1% and 47.1% (p &gt; 0.05) of migrants and natives who eradicated HCV, respectively. Conclusion: Compared to natives, HCV-infected migrants in care have different demographics, HCV genotypes, viral coinfections and comorbidities and similar disease severity, SVR and cofactors for disease progression after HCV eradication. A periodic clinical assessment after HCV eradication in Italians and migrants with cofactors for disease progression is warranted