Emerging Challenges and Opportunities in Infectious Disease Epidemiology.

Much of the intellectual tradition of modern epidemiology stems from efforts to understand and combat chronic diseases persisting through the 20th century epidemiologic transition of countries such as the United States and United Kingdom. After decades of relative obscurity, infectious disease epidemiology has undergone an intellectual rebirth in recent years amid increasing recognition of the threat posed by both new and familiar pathogens. Here, we review the emerging coalescence of infectious disease epidemiology around a core set of study designs and statistical methods bearing little resemblance to the chronic disease epidemiology toolkit. We offer our outlook on challenges and opportunities facing the field, including the integration of novel molecular and digital information sources into disease surveillance, the assimilation of such data into models of pathogen spread, and the increasing contribution of models to public health practice. We next consider emerging paradigms in causal inference for infectious diseases, ranging from approaches to evaluating vaccines and antimicrobial therapies to the task of ascribing clinical syndromes to etiologic microorganisms, an age-old problem transformed by our increasing ability to characterize human-associated microbiota. These areas represent an increasingly important component of epidemiology training programs for future generations of researchers and practitioners

Transport of a colloidal particle driven across a temporally oscillating optical potential energy landscape

A colloidal particle is driven across a temporally oscillating one-dimensional optical potential energy landscape and its particle motion is analysed. Different modes of dynamic mode locking are observed and are confirmed with the use of phase portraits. The effect of the oscillation frequency on the mode locked step width is addressed and the results are discussed in light of a high-frequency theory and compared to simulations. Furthermore, the influence of the coupling between the particle and the optical landscape on mode locking is probed by increasing the maximum depth of the optical landscape. Stronger coupling is seen to increase the width of mode locked steps. Finally, transport across the temporally oscillating landscape is studied by measuring the effective diffusion coefficient of a mobile particle, which is seen to be highly sensitive to the driving velocity and mode locking

Symmetric and asymmetric solitons in linearly coupled Bose-Einstein condensates trapped in optical lattices

We study spontaneous symmetry breaking in a system of two parallel quasi-one-dimensional traps, equipped with optical lattices (OLs) and filled with a Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC). The cores are linearly coupled by tunneling. Analysis of the corresponding system of linearly coupled Gross-Pitaevskii equations (GPEs) reveals that spectral bandgaps of the single GPE split into subgaps. Symmetry breaking in two-component BEC solitons is studied in cases of the attractive (AA) and repulsive (RR) nonlinearity in both traps; the mixed situation, with repulsion in one trap and attraction in the other (RA), is considered too. In all the cases, stable asymmetric solitons are found, bifurcating from symmetric or antisymmetric ones (and destabilizing them), in the AA and RR systems, respectively. In either case, bi-stability is predicted, with a nonbifurcating stable branch, either antisymmetric or symmetric, coexisting with asymmetric ones. Solitons destabilized by the bifurcation tend to rearrange themselves into their stable asymmetric counterparts. The impact of a phase mismatch, between the OLs in the two cores is also studied. Also considered is a related model, for a binary BEC in a single-core trap with the OL, assuming that the two species (representing different spin states of the same atom) are coupled by linear interconversion. In that case, the symmetry-breaking bifurcations in the AA and RR models switch their character, if the inter-species nonlinear interaction becomes stronger than the intra-species nonlinearity.Comment: 21 pages + 24 figs, accepted to Phys. Rev.

A complete record from colonization to extinction reveals density dependence and the importance of winter conditions for a population of the silvery blue, Glaucopsyche lygdamus.

Butterflies in the family Lycaenidac are often the focus of conservation efforts. However, our understanding of lycaenid population dynamics has been limited to relatively few examples of long-term monitoring data that have been reported. Here, factors associated with population regulation are investigated using a complete record of a single population of the silvery blue, Glaucopsyche lygdamus Doubleday (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae). Adults of G. lygdamus were first observed in an annual grassland near Davis, California, in 1982 and were last seen in 2003. Relationships between inter-annual variation in abundance and climatic variables were examined, accounting for density dependent effects. Significant effects of both negative density dependence and climatic variation were detected, particularly precipitation and temperature during winter months. Variation in precipitation, the strongest predictor of abundance, was associated directly and positively with butterfly abundance in the same year. Winter temperatures had a negative effect in the same year, but had a lagged, positive effect on abundance in the subsequent year. Mechanistic hypotheses are posed that include climatic effects mediated through both larval and adult plant resources

MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES TO MITIGATE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF WEATHER UNCERTAINTY IN EFFLUENT APPLICATION TO IRRIGATED CORN IN SEMIARID REGIONS

This study compares subsurface drip irrigation and sprinkler irrigation with respect to expected returns, aquifer life, nutrient utilization and accumulation in the production of irrigated corn using swine effluent and fresh groundwater from a depleting aquifer in the Oklahoma Panhandle. Most of the equations estimated econometrically had heteroskedasticity problems and MLE was used. The econometric estimation of a PDF of ammonia volatilization dependent on amount of nitrogen applied, for each irrigation system, was successful and is the basis for developing a stochastic chain for the soil nitrogen carryover equation. The results of the stochastic dynamic programming model are still being developed and will be presented at the conference.Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy,

Self-similar solutions of semilinear wave equations with a focusing nonlinearity

We prove that in three space dimensions a nonlinear wave equation $u_{tt}-\Delta u = u^p$ with $p\geq 7$ being an odd integer has a countable family of regular spherically symmetric self-similar solutions.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures, minor corrections to match the published versio

Spatial Endogenous Fire Risk and Efficient Fuel Management and Timber Harvest

This paper integrates a spatial fire behavior model and a stochastic dynamic optimization model to determine the optimal spatial pattern of fuel management and timber harvest. Each years fire season causes the loss of forest values and lives in the western US. This paper uses a multi-plot analysis and incorporates uncertainty about fire ignition locations and weather conditions to inform policy by examining the role of spatial endogenous risk - where management actions on one stand affect fire risk in that and adjacent stands. The results support two current strategies, but question two other strategies, for managing forests with fire risk.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Integrated Reservoir Management under Stochastic Conditions

Economic optimization, Lake levels, Marketed and non-marketed water uses, Non-linear programming, Recreational benefits, Reservoir management, Stochastic inflows, Value of a visitor day, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Development, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, Public Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty,