Bounds for the expected value of one-step processes

Mean-field models are often used to approximate Markov processes with large state-spaces. One-step processes, also known as birth-death processes, are an important class of such processes and are processes with state space $\{0,1,\ldots,N\}$ and where each transition is of size one. We derive explicit bounds on the expected value of such a process, bracketing it between the mean-field model and another simple ODE. Our bounds require that the Markov transition rates are density dependent polynomials that satisfy a sign condition. We illustrate the tightness of our bounds on the SIS epidemic process and the voter model.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, revise

Dynamic control of modern, network-based epidemic models

In this paper we make the first steps to bridge the gap between classic control theory and modern, network-based epidemic models. In particular, we apply nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) to a pairwise ODE model which we use to model a susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) epidemic on nontrivial contact structures. While classic control of epidemics concentrates on aspects such as vaccination, quarantine, and fast diagnosis, our novel setup allows us to deliver control by altering the contact network within the population. Moreover, the ideal outcome of control is to eradicate the disease while keeping the network well connected. The paper gives a thorough and detailed numerical investigation of the impact and interaction of system and control parameters on the controllability of the system. For a certain combination of parameters, we used our method to identify the critical control bounds above which the system is controllable. We foresee that our approach can be extended to even more realistic or simulation-based models with the aim of applying these to real-world situations

Effect of genetic and environmental influences on cardiometabolic risk factors: a twin study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Both genetic and environmental factors play a role in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. The magnitude of genetic and environmental influences may vary in different populations and can be investigated by twin studies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this cross-sectional study, 101 (63 monozygotic and 38 dizygotic) adult twin pairs (n = 202; mean age: 44.3 ± 15.8 years) were investigated. Past medical history was recorded and physical examination was performed. Fasting venous blood samples were taken for measuring laboratory parameters. For assessing heritability of 14 cardiovascular risk factors, the structural equation (A-C-E) model was used.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The following risk factors were highly (> 70.0%) or moderately (50.0 - 69.0%) heritable: weight (88.1%), waist circumference (71.0%), systolic blood pressure (57.1%), diastolic blood pressure (57.7%), serum creatinine (64.1%), fibrinogen (59.9%), and serum C-reactive protein (51.9%). On the other hand, shared and unique environmental influences had the highest proportion of total phenotypic variance in serum total cholesterol (46.8% and 53.2%), serum HDL-cholesterol (58.1% and 14.9%), triglycerides (0.0% and 55.9%), fasting blood glucose (57.1% and 42.9%), fasting insulin (45.4% and 54.5%), serum uric acid (46.0% and 31.3%), and serum homocysteine (71.8% and 28.2%, respectively).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Some cardiometabolic risk factors have strong heritability while others are substantially influenced by environmental factors. Understanding the special heritability characteristics of a particular risk factor can substantiate further investigations, especially in molecular genetics. Moreover, identifying genetic and environmental contribution to certain cardiometabolic risk factors can help in designing prevention and treatment strategies in the population investigated.</p

Characteristics of ferroelectric-ferroelastic domains in N{\'e}el-type skyrmion host GaV4_4S8_8

GaV$_4$S$_8$ is a multiferroic semiconductor hosting N{\'e}el-type magnetic skyrmions dressed with electric polarization. At T$_s$ = 42K, the compound undergoes a structural phase transition of weakly first-order, from a non-centrosymmetric cubic phase at high temperatures to a polar rhombohedral structure at low temperatures. Below T$_s$, ferroelectric domains are formed with the electric polarization pointing along any of the four $\left< 111 \right>$ axes. Although in this material the size and the shape of the ferroelectric-ferroelastic domains may act as important limiting factors in the formation of the N{\'e}el-type skyrmion lattice emerging below T$_C$=13\:K, the characteristics of polar domains in GaV$_4$S$_8$ have not been studied yet. Here, we report on the inspection of the local-scale ferroelectric domain distribution in rhombohedral GaV$_4$S$_8$ using low-temperature piezoresponse force microscopy. We observed mechanically and electrically compatible lamellar domain patterns, where the lamellae are aligned parallel to the (100)-type planes with a typical spacing between 100 nm-1.2 $\mu$m. We expect that the control of ferroelectric domain size in polar skyrmion hosts can be exploited for the spatial confinement and manupulation of N{\'e}el-type skyrmions

Evaluation of TMV Lesion Formation and Timing of Signal Transduction during Induction of Systemic Acquired Resistance (SAR) in Tobacco with a Computer-Assisted Method

Nicotiana tabacum L. cv. Xanthi nc plants were inoculated with tobacco mosaic virus (TMV) in order to develop a method for evaluation of lesion size and its distribution characteristics during the induction of systemic acquired resistance (SAR). All necrotic lesions were scored with an image analysis software and subjected to statistical analysis. The diminished lesion size and its right-skewed, non-normal distribution seem to be an important feature of SAR response. The results showed that the degree of induced resistance differs according to the position of the leaf on the plant’s shoot. In order to detect the timing of signal transduction from TMV infected leaves to distant ones, the infected leaves were removed from the tobacco plants at different time intervals. When the infected leaves were removed after 4 days, the SAR was always induced on the distant leaves indicating complete signal transduction within 4 days

Citizen science as a new tool in dog cognition research

The work of Á.M. was supported by the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (MTA 01 031).Family dogs and dog owners offer a potentially powerful way to conduct citizen science to answer questions about animal behavior that are difficult to answer with more conventional approaches. Here we evaluate the quality of the first data on dog cognition collected by citizen scientists using the Dognition. com website. We conducted analyses to understand if data generated by over 500 citizen scientists replicates internally and in comparison to previously published findings. Half of participants participated for free while the other half paid for access. The website provided each participant a temperament questionnaire and instructions on how to conduct a series of ten cognitive tests. Participation required internet access, a dog and some common household items. Participants could record their responses on any PC, tablet or smartphone from anywhere in the world and data were retained on servers. Results from citizen scientists and their dogs replicated a number of previously described phenomena from conventional lab-based research. There was little evidence that citizen scientists manipulated their results. To illustrate the potential uses of relatively large samples of citizen science data, we then used factor analysis to examine individual differences across the cognitive tasks. The data were best explained by multiple factors in support of the hypothesis that nonhumans, including dogs, can evolve multiple cognitive domains that vary independently. This analysis suggests that in the future, citizen scientists will generate useful datasets that test hypotheses and answer questions as a complement to conventional laboratory techniques used to study dog psychology.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Is an Independent Risk Factor for Coronary Artery Disease in Central Obesity

Several inflammatory biomarkers were found to be associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a marker of subclinical inflammation that increases with the stress response. Visceral adiposity index (VAI) calculated as a combination of anthropometric and metabolic parameters reflects both the extent and function of visceral adipose tissue. Given the association of subclinical inflammation with both obesity and cardiovascular diseases, it is plausible that the inflammation-CVD association is modulated by the amount and function of adipose tissue. Thus, our aim was to examine the association between NLR and coronary artery calcium score (CACS), an intermediate marker of coronary artery disease in asymptomatic patients across VAI tertiles. Methods: Data from 280 asymptomatic participants of a cardiovascular screening program were analysed. In addition to the collection of lifestyle and medical history, a non-contrast cardiac CT scan and laboratory tests were performed on all participants. Multivariate logistic regression was conducted with CACS > 100 as the outcome and with conventional cardiovascular risk factors and NLR, VAI, and NLR by VAI tertile as predictors. Results: We found an interaction between VAI tertiles and NLR; NLR values were similar in the lower VAI tertiles, while they were higher in the CACS > 100 in the 3rd VAI tertile (CACS ≤ 100: 1.94 ± 0.58 vs. CACS > 100: 2.48 ± 1.1, p = 0.008). According to multivariable logistic regression, the interaction between NLR and VAI tertiles remained: NLR was associated with CACS > 100 in the 3rd VAI tertile (OR = 1.67, 95% CI 1.06-2.62, p = 0.03) but not in the lower tertiles even after adjustment for age, sex, smoking, history of hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, and diabetes mellitus, as well as high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Our findings draw attention to the independent association between subclinical, chronic, systemic inflammation and subclinical coronary disease in obesity

Experimental and Theoretical Study on the OH-Reaction Kinetics and Photochemistry of Acetyl Fluoride (CH3C(O)F), an Atmospheric Degradation Intermediate of HFC-161 (C2H5F)

The direct reaction kinetic method of low pressure fast discharge flow (DF) with resonance fluorescence monitoring of OH (RF) has been applied to determine rate coefficients for the overall reactions OH + C2H5F (EtF) (1) and OH + CH3C(O)F (AcF) (2). Acetyl fluoride reacts slowly with the hydroxyl radical, the rate coefficient at laboratory temperature is k(2)(300 K) = (0.74 +/- 0.05) x 10(-14) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) (given with 2 sigma statistical uncertainty). The temperature dependence of the reaction does not obey the Arrhenius law and it is described well by the two-exponential rate expression of k(2)(300-410 K) = 3.60 x 10(-3) exp(-10500/T) + 1.56 x 10(-13) exp(-910/T) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The rate coefficient of k(1) = (1.90 +/- 0.19) x 10(-13) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) has been determined for the EtF-reaction at room temperature (T = 298 K). Microscopic mechanisms for the OH + CH3C(O)F reaction have also been studied theoretically using the ab initio CBS-QB3 and G4 methods. Variational transition state theory was employed to obtain rate coefficients for the OH + CH3C(O)F reaction as a function of temperature on the basis of the ab initio data. The calculated rate coefficients are in good agreement with the experimental data. It is revealed that the reaction takes place predominantly via the indirect H-abstraction mechanism involving H-bonded prereactive complexes and forming the nascent products of H2O and the CH2CFO radical. The non-Arrhenius behavior of the rate coefficient at temperatures below 500 K is ascribed to the significant tunneling effect of the in-the-plane H-abstraction dynamic bottleneck. The production of FC(O)OH + CH3 via the addition/elimination mechanism is hardly competitive due to the significant barriers along the reaction routes. Photochemical experiments of AcF were performed at 248 nm by using exciplex lasers. The total photodissociation quantum yield for CH3C(O)F has been found significantly less than unity; among the primary photochemical processes, C-C bond cleavage is by far dominating compared with CO-elimination. The absorption spectrum of AcF has also been determined by displaying a strong blue shift compared with the spectra of aliphatic carbonyls. Consequences of the results on atmospheric chemistry have been discussed