Longevity, Life-Cycle Behavior and Pension Reform

How can public pension systems be reformed to ensure fiscal stability in the face of increasing life expectancy? To address this pressing open question in public finance, we estimate a life-cycle model in which the optimal employment, retirement and consumption decisions of forward-looking individuals depend, inter alia, on life expectancy and the design of the public pension system. We calculate that, in the case of Germany, the fiscal consequences of the 6.4 year increase in age 65 life expectancy anticipated to occur over the 40 years that separate the 1942 and 1982 birth cohorts can be offset by either an increase of 4.34 years in the full pensionable age or a cut of 37.7% in the per-year value of public pension benefits. Of these two distinct policy approaches to coping with the fiscal consequences of improving longevity, increasing the full pensionable age generates the largest responses in labor supply and retirement behavior.life expectancy, public pension reform, retirement, employment, life-cycle models, consumption, tax and transfer system

A Novel Computerized Real Effort Task Based on Sliders

In this note, we present a novel computerized real effort task based on moving sliders across a screen which overcomes many of the drawbacks of existing real effort tasks. The task was first developed and used by us in Gill and Prowse (American Economic Review, forthcoming). We outline the design of our "slider task", describe its advantages compared to existing real effort tasks and provide a statistical analysis of the behavior of subjects undertaking the task. We believe that the task will prove valuable to researchers in designing future real effort experiments, and to this end we provide z-Tree code and guidance to assist researchers wishing to implement the slider task.real effort task, slider task, design of laboratory experiments, learning and time effects, Individual heterogeneity

A Structural Analysis of Disappointment Aversion in a Real Effort Competition

We develop a novel computerized real effort task, based on moving sliders across a screen, to test experimentally whether agents are disappointment averse when they compete in a real effort sequential-move tournament. Our theory predicts that a disappointment averse agent, who is loss averse around her endogenous expectations-based reference point, responds negatively to her rival's effort. We find significant evidence for this discouragement effect, and use the Method of Simulated Moments to estimate the strength of disappointment aversion on average and the heterogeneity in disappointment aversion across the population.disappointment aversion, loss aversion, reference-dependent preferences, reference point adjustment, expectations, tournament, real effort experiment, slider task

Gender Differences and Dynamics in Competition: The Role of Luck

We present experimental evidence which sheds new light on why women may be less competitive than men. Specifically, we observe striking differences in how men and women respond to good and bad luck in a competitive environment. Following a loss, women tend to reduce effort, and the effect is independent of the monetary value of the prize that the women failed to win. Men, on the other hand, reduce effort only after failing to win large prizes. Responses to previous competitive outcomes explain about 11% of the variation that we observe in women's efforts, but only about 4% of the variation in the effort of men, and differential responses to luck account for about half of the gender performance gap in our experiment. These findings help to explain both female underperformance in environments with repeated competition and the tendency for women to select into tournaments at a lower rate than men.behavioral preferences, real effort experiment, gender differences, gender gap, competition, competition aversion, tournament, luck, win, loss, narrow framing

A Structural Approach to Estimating the Effect of Taxation on the Labor Market Dynamics of Older Workers

We estimate a dynamic structural life-cycle model of employment, non-employment and retirement that includes endogenous accumulation of human capital and intertemporal non-separabilities in preferences. Additionally, the model accounts for the effect of the tax and transfer system on work incentives. The structural parameter estimates are used to evaluate the effects of a tax reform targeted at low income individuals on employment behavior and retirement decisions.life-cycle labor supply, income taxation

Employment Effects of Welfare Reforms: Evidence from a Dynamic Structural Life-Cycle Model

In this paper we develop a dynamic structural life-cycle model of labor supply behavior which fully accounts for the effect of income tax and transfers on labor supply incentives. Additionally, the model recognizes the demand side driven rationing risk that might prevent individuals from realizing their optimal labor supply state, resulting in involuntary unemployment. We use this framework to study the employment effects of transforming a traditional welfare state, as is currently in place in Germany, towards a more Anglo-American system in which a large proportion of transfers are paid to the working poor.life-cycle labor supply, involuntary unemployment, in-work credits

Mapping New Zealand and Antarctic snowpack from LANDSAT

Ther are no author-identified significant results in this report

International study into the use of intermittent hormone therapy in the treatment of carcinoma of the prostate : A meta-analysis of 1446 patients

OBJECTIVE: To review pooled phase II data to identify features of different regimens of intermittent hormone therapy (IHT), developed to reduce the morbidity of treating metastatic prostate cancer, and which carries a theoretical advantage of delaying the onset of androgen-independent prostate cancer, (AIPC) that are associated with success, highlighting features which require exploration with prospective trials to establish the best strategies for using this treatment. METHODS: Individual data were collated on 1446 patients with adequate information, from 10 phase II studies with >50 cases, identified through Pubmed. RESULTS: Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were developed to predict treatment success with a high degree of statistical success. The prostate-specific antigen (PSA) nadir, the PSA threshold to restart treatment, and medication type and duration, were important predictors of outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The duration of biochemical remission after a period of HT is a durable early indicator of how rapidly AIPC and death will occur, and will make a useful endpoint in future trials to investigate the best ways to use IHT based on the important treatment cycling variables described above. Patients spent a mean of 39% of the time off treatment. The initial PSA level and PSA nadir allow the identification of patients with prostate cancer in whom it might be possible to avoid radical therapy.Peer reviewe

Mid age APOE ε4 carriers show memory-related functional differences and disrupted structure-function relationships in hippocampal regions

Carriers of the APOE e4 allele are at higher risk of age-related cognitive decline and Alzheimer's disease (AD). The underlying neural mechanisms are uncertain, but genotype differences in medial temporal lobe (MTL) functional activity and structure at mid-age might contribute. We tested 16 non-e4 and 16 e4 carriers (aged 45-55) on a subsequent memory task in conjunction with MRI to assess how hippocampal volume (from T1 structural) and microstructure (neurite orientation-dispersion, from NODDI) differs by genotype and in relation to memory encoding. No previous study has investigated APOE effects on hippocampal microstructure using NODDI. Recall performance did not differ by genotype. A genotype by condition interaction in left parahippocampus indicated that in e4 carriers activity did not differentiate subsequently remembered from forgotten words. Hippocampal volumes and microstructure also did not differ by genotype but hippocampal volumes correlated positively with recognition performance in non-e4 carriers only. Similarly, greater hippocampal neurite orientation-dispersion was linked to better recall but only in non-e4s. Thus, we suggest that mid-age e4 carriers show a breakdown of normal MTL activation and structure-performance relationships. This could reflect an inability to utilise compensatory mechanisms, and contribute to higher risk of cognitive decline and AD in later life

Exposing the human nude phenotype [4]

Peer reviewedSubmitted Versio