The Key Role of Heavy Precipitation Events in Climate Model Disagreements of Future Annual Precipitation Changes in California

Climate model simulations disagree on whether future precipitation will increase or decrease over California, which has impeded efforts to anticipate and adapt to human-induced climate change. This disagreement is explored in terms of daily precipitation frequency and intensity. It is found that divergent model projections of changes in the incidence of rare heavy (\u3e60 mm day−1) daily precipitation events explain much of the model disagreement on annual time scales, yet represent only 0.3% of precipitating days and 9% of annual precipitation volume. Of the 25 downscaled model projections examined here, 21 agree that precipitation frequency will decrease by the 2060s, with a mean reduction of 6–14 days yr−1. This reduces California\u27s mean annual precipitation by about 5.7%. Partly offsetting this, 16 of the 25 projections agree that daily precipitation intensity will increase, which accounts for a model average 5.3% increase in annual precipitation. Between these conflicting tendencies, 12 projections show drier annual conditions by the 2060s and 13 show wetter. These results are obtained from 16 global general circulation models downscaled with different combinations of dynamical methods [Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), Regional Spectral Model (RSM), and version 3 of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM3)] and statistical methods [bias correction with spatial disaggregation (BCSD) and bias correction with constructed analogs (BCCA)], although not all downscaling methods were applied to each global model. Model disagreements in the projected change in occurrence of the heaviest precipitation days (\u3e60 mm day−1) account for the majority of disagreement in the projected change in annual precipitation, and occur preferentially over the Sierra Nevada and Northern California. When such events are excluded, nearly twice as many projections show drier future conditions

Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation usingstatistical and dynamical downscaling

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling

Cardiovascular Effects in Childhood Cancer Survivors Treated with Anthracyclines

Anthracyclines are commonly used to treat childhood leukemias and lymphomas, as well as other malignancies, leading to a growing population of long-term childhood cancer survivors. However, their use is limited by cardiotoxicity, increasing survivors' vulnerability to treatment-related complications that can markedly affect their quality of life. Survivors are more likely to suffer from heart failure, coronary artery disease, and cerebrovascular accidents compared to the general population. The specific mechanisms of anthracycline cardiotoxicity are complex and remain unclear. Hence, determining the factors that may increase susceptibility to cardiotoxicity is of great importance, as is monitoring patients during and after treatment. Additionally, treatment and prevention options, such as limiting cumulative dosage, liposomal anthracyclines, and dexrazoxane, continue to be explored. Here, we review the cardiovascular complications associated with the use of anthracyclines in treating malignancies in children and discuss methods for preventing, screening, and treating such complications in childhood cancer survivors

Color Transparency Effects in Electron Deuteron Interactions at Intermediate Q^2

High momentum transfer electrodisintegration of polarized and unpolarized deuterium targets, $d(e,e'p)n$ is studied. We show that the importance of final state interactions-FSI, occuring when a knocked out nucleon interacts with the other nucleon, depends strongly on the momentum of the spectator nucleon. In particular, these FSI occur when the essential contributions to the scattering amplitude arise from internucleon distances $\sim 1.5~fm$. But the absorption of the high momentum $\gamma^*$ may produce a point like configuration, which evolves with time. In this case, the final state interactions probe the point like configuration at the early stage of its evolution. The result is that significant color transparency effects, which can either enhance or suppress computed cross sections, are predicted to occur for $\sim 4 GeV^2 \ge Q^2\leq~10~(GeV/c)^2$.Comment: 37 pages LaTex, 12 uuencoded PostScript Figures as separate file, to be published in Z.Phys.

Inhomogeneous nucleation in quark hadron phase transition

The effect of subcritical hadron bubbles on a first-order quark-hadron phase transition is studied. These subcritical hadron bubbles are created due to thermal fluctuations, and can introduce a finite amount of phase mixing (quark phase mixed with hadron phase) even at and above the critical temperature. For reasonable choices of surface tension and correlation length, as obtained from the lattice QCD calculations, we show that the amount of phase mixing at the critical temperature remains below the percolation threshold. Thus, as the system cools below the critical temperature, the transition proceeds through the nucleation of critical-size hadron bubbles from a metastable quark-gluon phase (QGP), within an inhomogeneous background populated by an equilibrium distribution of subcritical hadron bubbles. The inhomogeneity of the medium results in a substantial reduction of the nucleation barrier for critical bubbles. Using the corrected nucleation barrier, we estimate the amount of supercooling for different parameters controlling the phase transition, and briefly discuss its implications to cosmology and heavy-ion collisions.Comment: LaTeX, 14 pages with 8 Postscript figures. Discussion added in introduction and conclusion, Fig. 8 added, few more references added, Typographical errors corrected. Version to appear in Phys. Rev.

Transcriptional and phenotypic characterization of novel Spx-regulated genes in Streptococcus mutans

CAPES - COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DE PESSOAL E NÍVEL SUPERIORFAPESP - FUNDAÇÃO DE AMPARO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULOIn oral biofilms, two of the major environmental challenges encountered by the dental pathogen Streptococcus mutans are acid and oxidative stresses. Previously, we showed that the S. mutans transcriptional regulators SpxA1 and SpxA2 (formerly SpxA and SpxB, respectively) are involved in stress survival by activating the expression of classic oxidative stress genes such as dpr, nox, sodA and tpx. We reasoned that some of the uncharacterized genes under SpxA1/A2 control are potentially involved in oxidative stress management. Therefore, the goal of this study was to use Spx-regulated genes as a tool to identify novel oxidative stress genes in S. mutans. Quantitative real-time PCR was used to evaluate the responses of ten Spx-regulated genes during H2O2 stress in the parent and Delta spx strains. Transcription activation of the H2O2-induced genes (8 out of 10) was strongly dependent on SpxA1 and, to a lesser extent, SpxA2. In vitro transcription assays revealed that one or both Spx proteins directly regulate three of these genes. The gene encoding the FeoB ferrous permease was slightly repressed by H2O2 but constitutively induced in strains lacking SpxA1. Nine genes were selected for downstream mutational analysis but inactivation of smu127, encoding a subunit of the acetoin dehydrogenase was apparently lethal. In vitro and in vivo characterization of the viable mutants indicated that, in addition to the transcriptional activation of reducing and antioxidant pathways, Spx performs an important role in iron homeostasis by regulating the intracellular availability of free iron. In particular, inactivation of the genes encoding the Fe-S biogenesis SUF system and the previously characterized iron-binding protein Dpr resulted in impaired growth under different oxidative stress conditions, increased sensitivity to iron and lower infectivity in rats. These results serve as an entryway into the characterization of novel genes and pathways that allow S. mutans to cope with oxidative stress.In oral biofilms, two of the major environmental challenges encountered by the dental pathogen Streptococcus mutans are acid and oxidative stresses. Previously, we showed that the S. mutans transcriptional regulators SpxA1 and SpxA2 (formerly SpxA and SpxB, respectively) are involved in stress survival by activating the expression of classic oxidative stress genes such as dpr, nox, sodA and tpx. We reasoned that some of the uncharacterized genes under SpxA1/A2 control are potentially involved in oxidative stress management. Therefore, the goal of this study was to use Spx-regulated genes as a tool to identify novel oxidative stress genes in S. mutans. Quantitative real-time PCR was used to evaluate the responses of ten Spx-regulated genes during H2O2 stress in the parent and Delta spx strains. Transcription activation of the H2O2-induced genes (8 out of 10) was strongly dependent on SpxA1 and, to a lesser extent, SpxA2. In vitro transcription assays revealed that one or both Spx proteins directly regulate three of these genes. The gene encoding the FeoB ferrous permease was slightly repressed by H2O2 but constitutively induced in strains lacking SpxA1. Nine genes were selected for downstream mutational analysis but inactivation of smu127, encoding a subunit of the acetoin dehydrogenase was apparently lethal. In vitro and in vivo characterization of the viable mutants indicated that, in addition to the transcriptional activation of reducing and antioxidant pathways, Spx performs an important role in iron homeostasis by regulating the intracellular availability of free iron. In particular, inactivation of the genes encoding the Fe-S biogenesis SUF system and the previously characterized iron-binding protein Dpr resulted in impaired growth under different oxidative stress conditions, increased sensitivity to iron and lower infectivity in rats. These results serve as an entryway into the characterization of novel genes and pathways that allow S. mutans to cope with oxidative stress104CAPES - COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DE PESSOAL E NÍVEL SUPERIORFAPESP - FUNDAÇÃO DE AMPARO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULOCAPES - COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DE PESSOAL E NÍVEL SUPERIORFAPESP - FUNDAÇÃO DE AMPARO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULOCAPES [6849-12-1]FAPESP [2012/032278-3, 2014/03816-4]6849-12-12012/032278-3; 2014/03816-

The challenges of modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed epidemic modeling at the forefront of worldwide public policy making. Nonetheless, modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 remains a challenge. Here, we detail three regional-scale models for forecasting and assessing the course of the pandemic. This work demonstrates the utility of parsimonious models for early-time data and provides an accessible framework for generating policy-relevant insights into its course. We show how these models can be connected to each other and to time series data for a particular region. Capable of measuring and forecasting the impacts of social distancing, these models highlight the dangers of relaxing nonpharmaceutical public health interventions in the absence of a vaccine or antiviral therapies

Antisocial behaviour and teacher–student relationship quality: The role of emotion‐related abilities and callous–unemotional traits

Background: Childhood antisocial behaviour has been associated with poorer teacher-student relationship (TSR) quality. It is also well-established that youth with antisocial behaviour have a range of emotion-related deficits, yet the impact of these students’ emotion-related abilities on the TSR is not understood. Furthermore, the addition of the Limited Prosocial Emotions specifier in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5) indicates that understanding the role of callous-unemotional (CU) traits for youth with antisocial behaviour problems is of particular importance. Aims: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between antisocial behaviour difficulties and the TSR by examining the influence of emotion-related abilities and CU traits. Sample: Twelve teachers from 10 primary schools provided anonymised information on 108 children aged 6-11 years. Results: Antisocial behaviour was associated with higher teacher-student conflict (but not closeness) as well as higher emotion lability/negativity and lower emotion understanding/empathy. Emotion lability/negativity was associated with higher teacher-student conflict (but not closeness), and emotion understanding/empathy was associated with lower teacher-student conflict and higher closeness. CU traits was associated with higher teacher-student conflict and lower teacher-student closeness (controlling for antisocial behaviour more broadly). We found no evidence of a moderating effect of CU traits or emotion-related abilities on the association between antisocial behaviour and TSR quality. Conclusions: Interventions for behaviour difficulties should consider teacher-student relationships in the classroom. Strategies which aim to improve teacher-student closeness as well as reduce teacher-student conflict may be of particular value to students with high CU traits