Predictors of mortality in primary antiphospholipid syndrome. A single-centre cohort study.

The vascular mortality of antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) ranges from 1.4 % to 5.5 %, but its predictors are poorly known. It was the study objective to evaluate the impact of baseline lupus anticoagulant assays, IgG anticardiolipin (aCL), plasma fibrinogen (FNG) and von Willebrand factor (VWF), platelets (PLT) and of genetic polymorphisms of methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase C677T, of prothrombin G20210A and of paraoxonase-1 Q192R on mortality in primary APS (PAPS). Cohort study on 77 thrombotic PAPS and 33 asymptomatic carriers of aPL (PCaPL) seen from 1989 to 2015 and persistently positive for aPL as per annual review. At baseline all participants were tested twice for the ratios of kaolin clotting time (KCTr), activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTTr), dilute Russell viper venom time (DRVVTr), IgG aCL, FNG, VWF and once for PLT. All thrombotic PAPS were on warfarin with regular INR monitoring. During follow-up 11 PAPS deceased (D-PAPS) of recurrent thrombosis despite adequate anticoagulation yielding an overall vascular mortality of 10 %. D-PAPS had the strongest baseline aPTTr and DRVVTr and the highest mean baseline IgG aCL, FNG, VWF and PLT. Cox proportional hazards model identified baseline DRVVTr and FNG as main predictors of mortality with adjusted hazard ratios of 5.75 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.5, 22.4) and of 1.03 (95 %CI: 1.01, 1.04), respectively. In conclusion, plasma DRVVTr and FNG are strong predictors of vascular mortality in PAPS; while FNG lowering agents exist further research should be directed at therapeutic strategies able to dampen aPL production

The standard error of measurement is a more appropriate measure of quality for postgraduate medical assessments than is reliability: an analysis of MRCP(UK) examinations

Background: Cronbach's alpha is widely used as the preferred index of reliability for medical postgraduate examinations. A value of 0.8-0.9 is seen by providers and regulators alike as an adequate demonstration of acceptable reliability for any assessment. Of the other statistical parameters, Standard Error of Measurement (SEM) is mainly seen as useful only in determining the accuracy of a pass mark. However the alpha coefficient depends both on SEM and on the ability range (standard deviation, SD) of candidates taking an exam. This study investigated the extent to which the necessarily narrower ability range in candidates taking the second of the three part MRCP(UK) diploma examinations, biases assessment of reliability and SEM.Methods: a) The interrelationships of standard deviation (SD), SEM and reliability were investigated in a Monte Carlo simulation of 10,000 candidates taking a postgraduate examination. b) Reliability and SEM were studied in the MRCP(UK) Part 1 and Part 2 Written Examinations from 2002 to 2008. c) Reliability and SEM were studied in eight Specialty Certificate Examinations introduced in 2008-9.Results: The Monte Carlo simulation showed, as expected, that restricting the range of an assessment only to those who had already passed it, dramatically reduced the reliability but did not affect the SEM of a simulated assessment. The analysis of the MRCP(UK) Part 1 and Part 2 written examinations showed that the MRCP(UK) Part 2 written examination had a lower reliability than the Part 1 examination, but, despite that lower reliability, the Part 2 examination also had a smaller SEM (indicating a more accurate assessment). The Specialty Certificate Examinations had small Ns, and as a result, wide variability in their reliabilities, but SEMs were comparable with MRCP(UK) Part 2.Conclusions: An emphasis upon assessing the quality of assessments primarily in terms of reliability alone can produce a paradoxical and distorted picture, particularly in the situation where a narrower range of candidate ability is an inevitable consequence of being able to take a second part examination only after passing the first part examination. Reliability also shows problems when numbers of candidates in examinations are low and sampling error affects the range of candidate ability. SEM is not subject to such problems; it is therefore a better measure of the quality of an assessment and is recommended for routine use

Crafting organization

The recent shift in attention away from organization studies as science has allowed for consideration of new ways of thinking about both organization and organizing and has led to several recent attempts to \u27bring down\u27 organizational theorizing. In this paper, we extend calls for organization to be represented as a creative process by considering organization as craft. Organizational craft, we argue, is attractive, accessible, malleable, reproducible, and marketable. It is also a tangible way of considering organization studies with irreverence. We draw on the hierarchy of distinctions among fine art, decorative art, and craft to suggest that understanding the organization of craft assists in complicating our understanding of marginality. We illustrate our argument by drawing on the case of a contemporary Australian craftworks and marketplace known initially as the Meat Market Craft Centre (\u27MMCC\u27) and then, until its recent closure, as Metro! &Dagger; Stella Minahan was a board member and then the Chief Executive Officer of the Metro! Craft Centre.<br /

A measure centrality index for systematic empirical comparison of consciousness theories

Consciousness science is marred by disparate constructs and methodologies, making it challenging to systematically compare theories. This foundational crisis casts doubts on the scientific character of the field itself. Addressing it, we propose a framework for systematically comparing consciousness theories by introducing a novel inter-theory classification interface, the Measure Centrality Index (MCI). Recognizing its gradient distribution, the MCI assesses the degree of importance a specific empirical measure has for a given consciousness theory. We apply the MCI to probe how the empirical measures of the Global Neuronal Workspace Theory (GNW), Integrated Information Theory (IIT), and Temporospatial Theory of Consciousness (TTC) would fare within the context of the other two. We demonstrate that direct comparison of IIT, GNW, and TTC is meaningful and valid for some measures like Lempel-Ziv Complexity (LZC), Autocorrelation Window (ACW), and possibly Mutual Information (MI). In contrast, it is problematic for others like the anatomical and physiological neural correlates of consciousness (NCC) due to their MCI-based differential weightings within the structure of the theories. In sum, we introduce and provide proof-of-principle of a novel systematic method for direct inter-theory empirical comparisons, thereby addressing isolated evolution of theories and confirmatory bias issues in the state-of-the-art neuroscience of consciousness

Implementing statistical equating for MRCP(UK) parts 1 and 2.

The MRCP(UK) exam, in 2008 and 2010, changed the standard-setting of its Part 1 and Part 2 examinations from a hybrid Angoff/Hofstee method to statistical equating using Item Response Theory, the reference group being UK graduates. The present paper considers the implementation of the change, the question of whether the pass rate increased amongst non-UK candidates, any possible role of Differential Item Functioning (DIF), and changes in examination predictive validity after the change

The Spread of Bluetongue Virus Serotype 8 in Great Britain and Its Control by Vaccination

Bluetongue (BT) is a viral disease of ruminants transmitted by Culicoides biting midges and has the ability to spread rapidly over large distances. In the summer of 2006, BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8) emerged for the first time in northern Europe, resulting in over 2000 infected farms by the end of the year. The virus subsequently overwintered and has since spread across much of Europe, causing tens of thousands of livestock deaths. In August 2007, BTV-8 reached Great Britain (GB), threatening the large and valuable livestock industry. A voluntary vaccination scheme was launched in GB in May 2008 and, in contrast with elsewhere in Europe, there were no reported cases in GB during 2008.Here, we use carefully parameterised mathematical models to investigate the spread of BTV in GB and its control by vaccination. In the absence of vaccination, the model predicted severe outbreaks of BTV, particularly for warmer temperatures. Vaccination was predicted to reduce the severity of epidemics, with the greatest reduction achieved for high levels (95%) of vaccine uptake. However, even at this level of uptake the model predicted some spread of BTV. The sensitivity of the predictions to vaccination parameters (time to full protection in cattle, vaccine efficacy), the shape of the transmission kernel and temperature dependence in the transmission of BTV between farms was assessed.A combination of lower temperatures and high levels of vaccine uptake (>80%) in the previously-affected areas are likely to be the major contributing factors in the control achieved in England in 2008. However, low levels of vaccination against BTV-8 or the introduction of other serotypes could result in further, potentially severe outbreaks in future

May measurement month 2018: an analysis of blood pressure screening results from Colombia

High blood pressure (BP) is the leading global preventable cause of death and the most common risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, due to its asymptomatic nature, the lack of awareness of this condition causes underdiagnosis and low rates of adherence to pharmacological treatment. Looking for practical approaches to increase awareness worldwide, the International Society of Hypertension (ISH) implemented the 2nd May Measurement Month campaign in 2018 (MMM18). In order to contribute to this initiative, Colombia participated as one of the 89 countries involved in this hypertension screening programme. Blood pressure was measured in subjects from 11 departments in Colombia. Under the leadership of the Fundacio´n Oftalmolo´gica de Santander (FOSCAL), 400 volunteers across the country collected the data following the MMM protocol. Measurements from 35 548 participants with a mean age of 41.9 years were obtained. In total, 9475 (26.7%) of the total population studied had hypertension. Of those with hypertension, 69.9% of these subjects were aware of their condition, 65.0% were on antihypertensive medication, and 43.1% had controlled BP. Of those on medication, 66.3% had controlled BP. Hypertension screening, awareness, treatment, and control should be a priority in public health objectives due to its elevated burden of disease and direct association with increased CVD. The MMM campaign provided a positive impact in the diagnosis of hypertension across Colombia. Although efforts are being made to expand treatment capability and adherence, still more are needed to insure a broader coverage of antihypertensive medication in Colombia

Patterns of allergic sensitization and factors associated with emergence of sensitization in the rural tropics early in the life course: findings of an Ecuadorian birth cohort

Introduction: There are limited data on emergence of allergic sensitization (or atopy) during childhood in tropical regions. Methods: We followed a birth cohort of 2,404 newborns to 8 years in tropical Ecuador and collected: risk factor data by maternal questionnaires periodically from birth; atopy was measured by skin prick test reactivity (SPT) to aeroallergens in parents, and aeroallergens and food allergens in children at 2, 3, 5, and 8 years; and stool samples for soil-transmitted helminths (STH) from children periodically to 8 years and from parents and household members at the time of recruitment of cohort children. Data on risk factors were measured either at birth or repeatedly (time-varying) from birth to 8 years. Longitudinal repeated-measures analyses were done using generalized estimating equations to estimate the age-dependent risk of positive SPT (SPT+) to any allergen or mite during early childhood. Results: SPT+ to any allergen was present in 29.0% of fathers and 24.8% of mothers, and in cohort children increased with age, initially to mite but later to cockroach, reaching 14.8% to any allergen (10.7% mite and 5.3% cockroach) at 8 years. Maternal SPT+, particularly presence of polysensitization (OR 2.04, 95% CI 1.49–2.77) significantly increased the risk of SPT+ during childhood, while household overcrowding at birth decreased the risk (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.72–0.98). For mite sensitization, maternal polysensitization increased (OR 2.14, 95% CI 1.40–3.27) but rural residence (OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.50–0.94) and birth order (3rd−4th vs. 1st−2nd: OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.52–0.98) decreased the risk. Time-varying exposures to agricultural activities (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.60–0.98) and STH parasites (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.64–0.91) during childhood decreased while anthelmintics increased the childhood risk (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.05–2.05) of mite sensitization. Conclusion: Our data show the emergence of allergic sensitization, primarily to mite and cockroach allergens, during childhood in tropical Ecuador. A role for both antenatal and post-natal factors acting as potential determinants of SPT+ emergence was observed

A Modeling Framework to Describe the Transmission of Bluetongue Virus within and between Farms in Great Britain

Recently much attention has been given to developing national-scale micro-simulation models for livestock diseases that can be used to predict spread and assess the impact of control measures. The focus of these models has been on directly transmitted infections with little attention given to vector-borne diseases such as bluetongue, a viral disease of ruminants transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. Yet BT has emerged over the past decade as one of the most important diseases of livestock.We developed a stochastic, spatially-explicit, farm-level model to describe the spread of bluetongue virus (BTV) within and between farms. Transmission between farms was modeled by a generic kernel, which includes both animal and vector movements. Once a farm acquired infection, the within-farm dynamics were simulated based on the number of cattle and sheep kept on the farm and on local temperatures. Parameter estimates were derived from the published literature and using data from the outbreak of bluetongue in northern Europe in 2006. The model was validated using data on the spread of BTV in Great Britain during 2007. The sensitivity of model predictions to the shape of the transmission kernel was assessed.The model is able to replicate the dynamics of BTV in Great Britain. Although uncertainty remains over the precise shape of the transmission kernel and certain aspects of the vector, the modeling approach we develop constitutes an ideal framework in which to incorporate these aspects as more and better data become available. Moreover, the model provides a tool with which to examine scenarios for the spread and control of BTV in Great Britain