Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones?

Composites of wind speeds, equivalent potential temperature, mean sea level pressure, vertical velocity, and relative humidity have been produced for the 100 most intense extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere winter for the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the high resolution global environment model (HiGEM). Features of conceptual models of cyclone structure—the warm conveyor belt, cold conveyor belt, and dry intrusion—have been identified in the composites from ERA-40 and compared to HiGEM. Such features can be identified in the composite fields despite the smoothing that occurs in the compositing process. The surface features and the three-dimensional structure of the cyclones in HiGEM compare very well with those from ERA-40. The warm conveyor belt is identified in the temperature and wind fields as a mass of warm air undergoing moist isentropic uplift and is very similar in ERA-40 and HiGEM. The rate of ascent is lower in HiGEM, associated with a shallower slope of the moist isentropes in the warm sector. There are also differences in the relative humidity fields in the warm conveyor belt. In ERA-40, the high values of relative humidity are strongly associated with the moist isentropic uplift, whereas in HiGEM these are not so strongly associated. The cold conveyor belt is identified as rearward flowing air that undercuts the warm conveyor belt and produces a low-level jet, and is very similar in HiGEM and ERA-40. The dry intrusion is identified in the 500-hPa vertical velocity and relative humidity. The structure of the dry intrusion compares well between HiGEM and ERA-40 but the descent is weaker in HiGEM because of weaker along-isentrope flow behind the composite cyclone. HiGEM’s ability to represent the key features of extratropical cyclone structure can give confidence in future predictions from this model

Projected change in wintertime precipitation in California using projected changes in extratropical cyclone activity

This is the final version of the article. Available from the American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this record.Wintertime extratropical cyclones in the east Pacific region are the source of much of the precipitation over California. There is a lot of uncertainty in future projections of Californian precipitation associated with predicted changes in the jet stream and the midlatitude storm tracks. The question this work seeks to answer is how the changes in the frequency and the intensity of extratropical cyclones in the Pacific storm track influence future changes in Californian precipitation. We used an objective cyclone identification method applied to 25 CMIP5 models for the historical and RCP8.5 simulations and investigated the changing relationships between storm frequency, intensity and precipitation. Cyclone data from the historical simulations and differences between the historical and RCP8.5 simulations were used to “predict” the modeled precipitation in the RCP8.5 simulations. In all models, the precipitation predicted using historical relationships gives a lower future precipitation change than the direct model output. In the future, the relationship between track density and precipitation indicates that for the same number of tracks, more precipitation is received. The relationship between track intensity and precipitation (which is quite weak in the historical simulations) does not change in the future. This suggests that other sources, likely enhanced moisture availability, are more important than changes in the intensity of cyclones for the rainfall associated with the storm tracks.This work was funded by the Australian Research Council (ARC) through a Discovery Early Career Research Award (DE140101305), and the Centre of Excellence for Climate Systems Science (CE110001028)

Efeito acaricida in vitro de extratos de plantas do Pantanal no carrapato de bovinos, Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus.

Estudou-se a ação acaricida dos extratos brutos etanólicos de 14 plantas do Pantanal sobre fêmeas ingurgitadas do carrapato-do-boi. Os bioensaios foram realizados em triplicatas pelo método de imersão das teleóginas e estimadas a produção de ovos, a eclodibilidade e a eficácia dos extratos. Extratos do lenho da raiz e da casca da raiz de Annona dioica, da raiz e da casca do caule de Simarouba versicolor, da raiz de Annona cornifolia e de Duguetia furfuracea tiveram atividade acaricida entre 50% e 100% e resposta dose-dependente. Extratos de Dimorphandra mollis, Magonia pubescens, Protium heptaphyllum, Hyptis crenata, Sebastiana hispida, Aspidosperma australe, Senna occidentalis e de Elyonurus muticus mostraram atividade acaricida baixa ou ausente (0% a 10%). Extratos da parte aérea de A. cornifolia, da planta inteira de Croton glandulosus e da casca do caule de Stryphnodendron obovatum mostraram atividade acaricida intermediária (10% a 20%). A alta atividade acaricida observada nos extratos de A. dioica, A. cornifolia e D. furfuracea indica ação de acetogeninas, moléculas naturais com várias atividades farmacológicas já descritas e presentes, principalmente, nas plantas da família Annonaceae.bitstream/CNPGC-2010/13215/1/BP26.pd

An evaluation of urinary microRNA reveals a high sensitivity for bladder cancer

Background: Urinary biomarkers are needed to improve the care and reduce the cost of managing bladder cancer. Current biomarkers struggle to identify both high and low-grade cancers due to differing molecular pathways. Changes in microRNA (miR) expression are seen in urothelial carcinogenesis in a phenotype-specific manner. We hypothesised that urinary miRs reflecting low- and high-grade pathways could detect bladder cancers and overcome differences in genetic events seen within the disease. Methods: We investigated urinary samples (n ¼ 121) from patients with bladder cancer (n ¼ 68) and age-matched controls (n ¼ 53). Fifteen miRs were quantified using real-time PCR. Results: We found that miR is stable within urinary cells despite adverse handling and detected differential expression of 10 miRs from patients with cancer and controls (miRs 15a/15b/24-1/27b/100/135b/203/212/328/1224, ANOVA Po0.05). Individually, miR-1224-3p had the best individual performance with specificity, positive and negative predictive values and concordance of 83%, 83%, 75% and 77%, respectively. The combination of miRs-135b/15b/1224-3p detected bladder cancer with a high sensitivity (94.1%), sufficient specificity (51%) and was correct in 86% of patients (concordance). Conclusion: The use of this panel in patients with haematuria would have found 94% of urothelial cell carcinoma, while reducing cystoscopy rates by 26%. However, two invasive cancers (3%) would have been missed

Avaliação Bioeconômica de Antiparasitários Fitoterápicos e Homeopáticos em Bovinos de Corte.

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Desempenho produtivo e reprodutivo de ovelhas do grupo "Nativo Pantaneiro" selecionadas como resistentes e susceptíveis a verminose no Mato Grosso do Sul: resultados parciais.

O presente trabalho objetivou avaliar os índices zootécnicos e o parasitismo em ovelhas selecionadas pelo OPG pertencentes ao grupo "nativo pantaneiro". Estão sendo utilizadas 180 ovelhas, oriundas do Pantanal Sul-mato-grossense, estratificadas por peso e pela média de OPG, e classificadas em resistentes (RR), susceptíveis (SS) e intermediárias (RS), submetidas a dois níveis de suplementação proteica: (P) e (P+). A proporção macho/fêmea foi de 1:30, com estação de monta de 30 dias, sincronização do cio e repasse com 14 dias. O anti-helmíntico foi usado, individualmente de acordo com o OPG e o VG. Quanto às médias de natalidade, mortalidade de ovelhas e desmame, o grupo das ovelhas RR apresentou 88%, 6,7% e 78,3%; e das ovelhas SS 85%, 25% e 60%, respectivamente (P<0,05). A taxa de mortalidade de cordeiros até o desmame foi de 11% e 29%, respectivamente para RR e SS (P<0,05). A média de OPG das ovelhas RR (789) foi significativamente menor que do grupo SS (1896) (P<0,05). Em relação ao peso ao nascer e peso aos 30 dias não houve diferenças significativas para o efeito de grupo selecionado, mostrando efeito apenas para OPG (P<0,05). Conforme o resultado parcial dos dados obtidos no primeiro ano de produção observa-se que a seleção dos animais pela contagem de ovos por grama de fezes (OPG) se mostra muito importante nos resultados zootécnicos e econômicos do sistema de produção de ovinos. [Reproductive and productive performance of the "Nativo Pantaneiro" genetic group sheep selected as resistant and susceptible to worms in Mato Grosso do Sul State, Brazil. Partial results]. Abstract: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the performance indexes and parasitism rates by selecting animals for eggs per gram of faeces (EPG) in sheep of the "Nativo Pantaneiro" genetic group. A total of 180 ewe originating from the Pantanal of Mato Grosso do Sul, were stratified by weight and the average of EPG, and classified as resistant (RR), susceptible (SS) and intermediate (RS). These groups were supplemented with two different protein levels: (P) and (P +). The male:female ratio was 1:30, with breeding season, estrus synchronization and return to breeding in 14 days. The anthelmintic was used individually according to the EPG and PVC. Sheep of the group RR had average birth rate, ewe mortality and weaning, respectively as 88%, 6.7% and 78.3%. Sheep from SS group had 85%, 60% and 25%, respectively (P<0 05). The mortality rate of lambs to weaning was 11% in RR group and 29% in SS group (P<0.05). In relation to birth at weight and weight at 30 days there were no significant differences between selected group, showing an effect only for EPG levels (P<0.05). These partial results suggests that animal selection for reproduction by EPG is very important and useful to reach better economic results in ewes production systems

Dynamical analysis of extreme precipitation in the US northeast based on large-scale meteorological patterns

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer via the DOI in this record.Previous work has identified six large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) of dynamic tropopause height associated with extreme precipitation over the Northeast US, with extreme precipitation defined as the top 1% of daily station precipitation. Here, we examine the three-dimensional structure of the tropopause LSMPs in terms of circulation and factors relevant to precipitation, including moisture, stability, and synoptic mechanisms associated with lifting. Within each pattern, the link between the different factors and extreme precipitation is further investigated by comparing the relative strength of the factors between days with and without the occurrence of extreme precipitation. The six tropopause LSMPs include two ridge patterns, two eastern US troughs, and two troughs centered over the Ohio Valley, with a strong seasonality associated with each pattern. Extreme precipitation in the ridge patterns is associated with both convective mechanisms (instability combined with moisture transport from the Great Lakes and Western Atlantic) and synoptic forcing related to Great Lakes storm tracks and embedded shortwaves. Extreme precipitation associated with eastern US troughs involves intense southerly moisture transport and strong quasi-geostrophic forcing of vertical velocity. Ohio Valley troughs are associated with warm fronts and intense warm conveyor belts that deliver large amounts of moisture ahead of storms, but little direct quasi-geostrophic forcing. Factors that show the largest difference between days with and without extreme precipitation include integrated moisture transport, low-level moisture convergence, warm conveyor belts, and quasi-geostrophic forcing, with the relative importance varying between patterns.National Science FoundationSwiss National Science Foundation (SNSF