Occurrence of Radionuclides and Hazardous Elements in the Transboundary River Basin Kyrgyzstan–Kazakhstan

Important for irrigation, the transboundary river basin between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan is vulnerable to geochemical and anthropogenic sources of pollution. The use of water use indices, together with measurements of the elemental and radionuclide composition of the water and bottom sediments, provides a means for evaluating the continued use of the water from this region. Recent monitoring shows the highest concentrations of hazardous contaminants include lead and thorium contained in the bottom and banks of the Kichi-Kemin River. These contaminants are likely remnants of an accidental spill at the Aktyuz tailing dump in 1964. The specific activity of the Th-232 of the bottom and banks of the Kichi-Kemin River is 107–189 Bq/kg. There is evidence of anthropogenic sources of additional pollution from uranium in both the bottom sediments and the water in the Oyrandy River. The geochemical origins of uranium and other associated elements in the water of the Shu River are likely the Kamyshanovskoye deposit. Contact between the riverbed and ore bodies in this region likely leads to elevated concentrations of several geogenic contaminants, including lithium, strontium, uranium, and boron (Li, Sr, U, B), increasing by as much as 60–130%. The uranium concentrations in the water of channels that are used for irrigation exceed the maximum allowable contaminant levels by 3.8 times. Future work is needed to evaluate the ecological and human health impacts of these contaminants in irrigation and drinking water

Human Impacts on Forest Biodiversity in Protected Walnut-Fruit Forests in Kyrgyzstan

We used a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics, supported by empirical field data and socioeconomic data, to examine the impacts of human disturbances on a protected forest landscape in Kyrgyzstan. Local use of 27 fruit and nut species was recorded and modeled. Results indicated that in the presence of fuelwood cutting with or without grazing, species of high socioeconomic impor- tance such as Juglans regia, Malus spp., and Armeniaca vulgaris were largely eliminated from the landscape after 50–150 yr. In the absence of disturbance or in the presence of grazing only, decline of these species occurred at a much lower rate, owing to competi- tive interactions between tree species. This suggests that the current intensity of fuelwood harvesting is not sustainable. Conversely, cur- rent grazing intensities were found to have relatively little impact on forest structure and composition, and could potentially play a positive role in supporting regeneration of tree species. These results indicate that both positive and negative impacts on biodiversity can arise from human populations living within a protected area. Potentially, these could be reconciled through the development of participatory approaches to conservation management within this reserve, to ensure the maintenance of its high conservation value while meeting human needs

Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia: An Update

Our previous assessment of debt sustainability in developing Asia, conducted in 2011, found that the region's fiscal outlook was mostly benign. In this study we update the debt sustainability assessment, taking stock of the latest data and including a larger number of countries. With the benefit of hindsight, we assess the accuracy of our earlier debt ratio forecasts and the underlying macroeconomic assumptions. By and large, we find that standard debt sustainability analysis (DSA) represents a valid forecasting tool, able to predict debt ratios fairly accurately under reasonable assumptions and circumstances. Further, our fan chart analysis confirms the importance for stochastic analysis to integrate standard DSA, in order to capture heightened macroeconomic volatility, which we observe for some countries in the region. Looking forward to 2020, debt ratio projections confirm that the outlook remains benign for the region as a whole, country heterogeneity notwithstanding. On the issue of DSA methods and implementation, we emphasize the importance of macroeconomic forecast accuracy and suggest that volatility be captured by risk analysis tools that would optimally flank the standard DSA framework