Social Policy Targeting and Binary Information Transfer between Surveys

This paper deals with the optimal transfer of binary information (BIT) on group membership between different statistical surveys of an identical population, a need arising frequently in socio-economic surveys. The limited number of questions asked in any one survey may necessitate information transfer between surveys. We design a method for a a BIT between a source-survey originally including the information and a target survey in which it is needed. An efficient BIT depends on (1) efficient estimation of the statistical model explaining group-membership as estimated by the ROC-curve, (2) the choice of a cutoff value for translating the forecasted logistic probability back into a binary variable and (3) a statistically testable quality control of the transfer. We suggest an optimal cutoff point that minimizes the sum of squared errors instead of the well-known Hosmer-Lemeshow method. Our application illustrates how survey data can be enhanced, when repeated interviews are expensive or difficult to implement. We enhance the Household Expenditure Survey (HES) by transferring a binary variable of households' religious group membership from the Social Survey to the HES. This helps identify extremely poor groups for poverty calculations and improved targeting of anti-poverty policy.ROC curves; Binary Variables; Logistic Regression; Group Identification; Optimal Cutoff Value; Poverty Targeting; Poverty Mapping; Small Area Estimation

Social Policy Targeting and Binary Information Transfer between Surveys

This paper deals with the optimal transfer of binary information (BIT) on group membership between different statistical surveys of an identical population, a need arising frequently in socio-economic surveys. The limited number of questions asked in any one survey may necessitate information transfer between surveys. We design a method for a a BIT between a source-survey originally including the information and a target survey in which it is needed. An efficient BIT depends on (1) efficient estimation of the statistical model explaining group-membership as estimated by the ROC-curve, (2) the choice of a cutoff value for translating the forecasted logistic probability back into a binary variable and (3) a statistically testable quality control of the transfer. We suggest an optimal cutoff point that minimizes the sum of squared errors instead of the well-known Hosmer-Lemeshow method. Our application illustrates how survey data can be enhanced, when repeated interviews are expensive or difficult to implement. We enhance the Household Expenditure Survey (HES) by transferring a binary variable of households' religious group membership from the Social Survey to the HES. This helps identify extremely poor groups for poverty calculations and improved targeting of anti-poverty policy

The Domestic Demographic Crisis in the Context of Political Economy

The article is the author’s study of key aspects of the current demographic crisis in Ukraine. The study is carried out on the theoretical platform of the political economy approach and covers the events of the period 1993–2018. Researchers interpret the large-scale depopulation of the country’s population as the main result of its development over the period of a quarter of a century and consider the social causes of this process. The aim of the article is to identify the main social causes of the regress in the demographic development of the country. In order to identify the main causes of the demographic regress in Ukraine, the article presents the key characteristics of the natural and migratory movement of the population, its economic activity, morbidity, causes of high mortality and deviant behavior. The authors prove that the leading social cause of the demographic crisis in Ukraine lies in the mechanism of excessive social stratification of the society, which hinders the unlocking of the potential of human capital of the nation and its movement towards social progress. According to the authors, the mentioned mechanism supports the antisocial way of enriching the privileged minority and the destructive for most of the population way of self-reproduction of poverty, ultrahigh morbidity and mortality. The authors of the article argue that the demographic crisis in Ukraine can be overcome by directing the state’s economic course towards solving the problem of the country’s demographic development

Сенс життя, екзистенційна психотерапія і COVID-19

In the modern theory and practice of consulting the search for the meaning of life, prevention, and treatment ("intellectual vaccination"), the existential direction is not represented at all, although its need is obvious and has the right to life. Existential crises can be based on death, serious illness, transitional periods - positive and negative in personal life and professional activity, making irreversible decisions, sudden isolation, searching for the meaning of life, and all this, which is already becoming, we hope, a temporary basis - this is COVID 19. The main content of existentialism testifies that it is indeed one of the most worldly, personality-oriented directions of modern psychological science, which seeks to explain the essence of man in indissoluble unity with all the structures of its existence. Existential psychotherapy - psychological assistance based on the mind, respect, and active knowledge of the therapist of all the features and aspects of the individual being (existence) of the patient's personality, without the intention to find out the pathological or ineffective characteristics of his life, behavior, and activity. The humanistic potential is significant, which affirms a person as a self-sufficient person. The authors gave examples of the application of the method of existential psychotherapy in the rehabilitation of patients with postcovid syndrome and other pathological conditions.Analyzing the thoughts and actions of our patients, we have in practice received confirmation of the scientific works of scientists dealing with the problem under study. Promising areas can also be considered the creation of the school "Existential psychotherapy in the rehabilitation of patients with post-coid syndrome", the holding of a conference on the topic "Existential psychotherapy in the development and rehabilitation of recovering from COVID-19", the opening of a "humanitarian vaccination room" and others.Taking into account modern trends in society, existential psychotherapy has a great future in the cognitive, therapeutic areas, as well as in the rehabilitation of sick and post-sighted convalescents.Separately, it should be noted that all the data they use in this article is given taking into account the time frame until February 14, 2021.В сучасній теорії та практиці консультування пошуку сенсу життя, профілактики і лікування («інтелектуальною вакцинацією») екзистенційний напрям взагалі не представлений, хоча його потреба очевидна і має право на життя. В основі екзистенційних криз може бути смерть, важка хвороба, перехідні періоди – позитивні і негативні в особистому житті і професійної діяльності, прийняття безповоротних рішень, раптова ізоляція, пошуки сенсу життя, і все це, яке вже стає, надіємось, тимчасовою основою – це COVID-19. Основний зміст екзистенціалізму свідчить, що це справді один із найбільш людиномірних, особистісно орієнтованих напрямків сучасної психологічної науки, який прагне пояснити сутність людини в нерозривній єдності з усіма структурами її екзистенції. Екзистенційна психотерапія – психологічна допомога, що ґрунтується на увазі, пошані й активному пізнанні терапевтом усіх особливостей та аспектів індивідуального буття (екзистенції) особистості пацієнта, без наміру з’ясувати патологічні чи неефективні характеристики його життя, поведінки і діяльності. Вагомим є гуманістичний потенціал, який утверджує людину як самодостатню особистість. Автори навели приклади застосування методу екзистенційної психотерапії в реабілітації хворих із постковідним синдромом та іншими патологічними станами. Аналізуючи думки і дії наших пацієнтів, ми на практиці отримали підтвердження наукових праць учених, що займаються досліджуваною проблематикою. Перспективними напрямками можна вважати також створення школи «Екзистенційна психотерапія в реабілітації хворих з постковідним синдромом», проведення конференції на тему «Екзистенційна психотерапія в розвитку та реабілітації одужуючих під час COVID-19», відкриття «кабінету гуманітарної вакцинації» тощо. З огляду на сучасні тенденції в суспільстві, екзистенційна психотерапія має велике майбутнє в пізнавальній, лікувальній сферах, а також реабілітації хворих і постковідних одужуючих. Окремо варто наголосити, що усі дані, якими вони оперують у цій статті, наведені з урахуванням часових рамок до 14 лютого 2021 року

Dynamic problems of the theory of elasticity for layers and semilayers with cavities

We present a solution methodology for dynamic problems of the theory of elasticity based on the fundamental (F)-solutions approach for layers and semilayers containing cavities. Under the proposed solution framework boundary-value problems for three-dimensional cylindrical bodies are reduced to well-studied systems of one-dimensional singular integral equations. With the aid of the integral Fourier transform in time, we study the problem of impulse loading at the sides of cavities. We also demonstrate how the combination of the proposed methodology with the approach of reflections can be used for the solution of analogous problems for semi-infinite layers. When you are citing the document, use the following link http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/2240

Наработка изотопов 11C и 18F. Получение радиофармпрепарата «Глюкоза 11C»

Обобщены результаты наработки фотоядерным способом изотопов 11С и 18F в различных мишенях-матрицах. Исследования выполнены на линейных ускорителях электронов НИК "Ускоритель" ННЦ ХФТИ НАН Украины в диапазоне энергий 10 -40 МэВ для выяснения возможностей получения максимально достижимых уровней активности изотопов 11С, и 18F с целью планирования дальнейших разработок по созданию на основе этих изотопов радиофармпрепарата (РФП) для ядерной медицины. В рамках вышеизложенного подхода нами проведены измерения уровней активности изотопа 18F переходящего в окружающую водную среду при облучении мишеней–матриц из фторопласта (С2F4) потоком тормозного излучения. Выход изотопа 18F в водную среду в самых благоприятных условиях (по энергии и среднему току пучка) составил 3,6 % от величины активности матрицы 40 МБк/г, что является весьма низким показателем. Несмотря на обнадеживающее значение удельной активности изотопа 18F в мишенях–матрицах фторида лития (LiF) -77 МБк/г и плавиковой кислоты (НF) – близкой к 100 МБк/г вопрос извлечения изотопа 18F из матриц С2F4, LiF и НF для приготовления на его основе РФП остается открытым и ставит под сомнение целесообразность такой методологии наработки изотопа 18F для дальнейшего использования. Более результативной оказалась наработка изотопа 11С в облученной мишене-матрице стандартной лечебной формы «глюкозы моногидрат» (глюкоза). Показано, что в результате облучения глюкозы пучком гамма-квантов удается осуществить «мечение» глюкозы изотопом 11С, который образуется в результате фотоядерной реакции 12С(γ,n)11C на ядре 12С, входящем в состав молекулы глюкозы - С6Н12О6 · H2O. Облученный образец глюкозы, растворенный в заданном объеме растворителя (дистиллированной воды) будет готовым к использованию РФП «Глюкоза, 11C». Показано, что «фотоядерный метод» обеспечивает получение РФП «Глюкоза, 11C» с полной активностью, необходимой для проведения ПЭТ диагностики. РФП «Глюкоза, 11C» к моменту его использования обладает 100% радионуклидной чистотой. РФП «Глюкоза, 11C» таким способом получен впервые. Обсуждается выбор оптимальной конструкции водоохлаждаемого мишенного устройства, обеспечивающего щадящий (в смысле тепловых нагрузок) режим облучения капсулы, заполненной таблетками глюкозы. Используя программу “SolidWorks FlowSimulation 2011”, рассчитаны количественные характеристики скоростей потоков воды, обтекающих капсулу с глюкозой и конвертер

Semaglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with obesity and prevalent heart failure: a prespecified analysis of the SELECT trial

Background: Semaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist, reduces the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in people with overweight or obesity, but the effects of this drug on outcomes in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and heart failure are unknown. We report a prespecified analysis of the effect of once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide 2·4 mg on ischaemic and heart failure cardiovascular outcomes. We aimed to investigate if semaglutide was beneficial in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease with a history of heart failure compared with placebo; if there was a difference in outcome in patients designated as having heart failure with preserved ejection fraction compared with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction; and if the efficacy and safety of semaglutide in patients with heart failure was related to baseline characteristics or subtype of heart failure. Methods: The SELECT trial was a randomised, double-blind, multicentre, placebo-controlled, event-driven phase 3 trial in 41 countries. Adults aged 45 years and older, with a BMI of 27 kg/m2 or greater and established cardiovascular disease were eligible for the study. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) with a block size of four using an interactive web response system in a double-blind manner to escalating doses of once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide over 16 weeks to a target dose of 2·4 mg, or placebo. In a prespecified analysis, we examined the effect of semaglutide compared with placebo in patients with and without a history of heart failure at enrolment, subclassified as heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, or unclassified heart failure. Endpoints comprised MACE (a composite of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and cardiovascular death); a composite heart failure outcome (cardiovascular death or hospitalisation or urgent hospital visit for heart failure); cardiovascular death; and all-cause death. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03574597. Findings: Between Oct 31, 2018, and March 31, 2021, 17 604 patients with a mean age of 61·6 years (SD 8·9) and a mean BMI of 33·4 kg/m2 (5·0) were randomly assigned to receive semaglutide (8803 [50·0%] patients) or placebo (8801 [50·0%] patients). 4286 (24·3%) of 17 604 patients had a history of investigator-defined heart failure at enrolment: 2273 (53·0%) of 4286 patients had heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, 1347 (31·4%) had heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, and 666 (15·5%) had unclassified heart failure. Baseline characteristics were similar between patients with and without heart failure. Patients with heart failure had a higher incidence of clinical events. Semaglutide improved all outcome measures in patients with heart failure at random assignment compared with those without heart failure (hazard ratio [HR] 0·72, 95% CI 0·60-0·87 for MACE; 0·79, 0·64-0·98 for the heart failure composite endpoint; 0·76, 0·59-0·97 for cardiovascular death; and 0·81, 0·66-1·00 for all-cause death; all pinteraction>0·19). Treatment with semaglutide resulted in improved outcomes in both the heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HR 0·65, 95% CI 0·49-0·87 for MACE; 0·79, 0·58-1·08 for the composite heart failure endpoint) and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction groups (0·69, 0·51-0·91 for MACE; 0·75, 0·52-1·07 for the composite heart failure endpoint), although patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction had higher absolute event rates than those with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. For MACE and the heart failure composite, there were no significant differences in benefits across baseline age, sex, BMI, New York Heart Association status, and diuretic use. Serious adverse events were less frequent with semaglutide versus placebo, regardless of heart failure subtype. Interpretation: In patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular diease and overweight or obesity, treatment with semaglutide 2·4 mg reduced MACE and composite heart failure endpoints compared with placebo in those with and without clinical heart failure, regardless of heart failure subtype. Our findings could facilitate prescribing and result in improved clinical outcomes for this patient group. Funding: Novo Nordisk

Implementation of Nord Stream construction - Stabilizing factor of German's Power Industry Sonderweg?

The continuously decreasing amount of mineral resources and its future is becoming an omnipresent topic in the EU. The key is to obtain good terms of resource import. Agreement signed by the Russian president Vladimir Putin and the German chancellor Gerhard Schröder considering the construction of the Nordstream gas pipeline, leading from Russian Wyborg to German Greifswald, shattered the EU's concept of energetic policy meaning the EU energetic security. Even though the energetic concept puts emphasis on diminishing the reliance on Russian gas import into EU, Germany took its own direction. In these times when the demand for gas import is steadily increasing, every country is trying to have good relations with Russia and secure themselves a stable supply of gas. Germany, thanks to its successful long-term cooperation with Russia, is able to avoid a possible future gas crisis that might be caused by the transit countries. The gas pipeline's direct connection to the Russian gas reserves ensured the coverage of Germany's demand but in the time of need (crisis) even help out neighbouring countries inside the EU. Not only is the European energetic concept going through series of changes, but even the Russian side must react to the increasing gas demand. The extensive researches, searching for new gas..

Realizace stavby Nord stream - stabilizační faktor německého energetického sonderwegu?

Stále se snižující zásoby nerostného bohatství a jejich další vývoj se stává předmětem diskuzí nejen v Evropské unii. Klíčové je sjednat si včas podmínky pro dovoz surovin. Smlouva podepsaná mezi ruským prezidentem Vladimírem Putinem a německým kancléřem Gerhardem Schröderem o výstavbě plynovodu Nordstream, vedoucího z ruského Wyborgu přímo do německého Greifswaldu, roztříštila koncept energetické politiky Evropské unie, respektive evropské energetické bezpečnosti. Ačkoliv energetický koncept klade důraz na odpoutání se od většinových dodávek ruského plynu do Evropské unie, Německo se vydává vlastní cestou. V době, kdy poptávka po dodávkách plynu v Evropě stále vzrůstá, se každá země snaží těžit ze svého postavení vůči Rusku a zajistit pro sebe stabilní přísun zásob plynu. Německo díky dlouholeté úspěšné spolupráci s Ruskem získává možnost vyhnout se budoucím plynovým krizím, které by byly zapříčiněny tranzitními zeměmi. Přímé napojení plynovodu na ruské plynové zásoby zajistilo Německu nejen pokrytí vlastní spotřeby, ale i v případě nutnosti, respektive krize, by Německo bylo schopno pomoci i dalším sousedícím státům v rámci Evropské unie. Nejen evropský energetický koncept prochází změnami, ale i ruská strana musí reagovat na vzrůstající poptávku po plynu. Rozsáhlé výzkumné práce, hledání nových...The continuously decreasing amount of mineral resources and its future is becoming an omnipresent topic in the EU. The key is to obtain good terms of resource import. Agreement signed by the Russian president Vladimir Putin and the German chancellor Gerhard Schröder considering the construction of the Nordstream gas pipeline, leading from Russian Wyborg to German Greifswald, shattered the EU's concept of energetic policy meaning the EU energetic security. Even though the energetic concept puts emphasis on diminishing the reliance on Russian gas import into EU, Germany took its own direction. In these times when the demand for gas import is steadily increasing, every country is trying to have good relations with Russia and secure themselves a stable supply of gas. Germany, thanks to its successful long-term cooperation with Russia, is able to avoid a possible future gas crisis that might be caused by the transit countries. The gas pipeline's direct connection to the Russian gas reserves ensured the coverage of Germany's demand but in the time of need (crisis) even help out neighbouring countries inside the EU. Not only is the European energetic concept going through series of changes, but even the Russian side must react to the increasing gas demand. The extensive researches, searching for new gas...Department of German and Austrian StudiesKatedra německých a rakouských studiíFakulta sociálních vědFaculty of Social Science