Bayesian optimization for materials design

We introduce Bayesian optimization, a technique developed for optimizing time-consuming engineering simulations and for fitting machine learning models on large datasets. Bayesian optimization guides the choice of experiments during materials design and discovery to find good material designs in as few experiments as possible. We focus on the case when materials designs are parameterized by a low-dimensional vector. Bayesian optimization is built on a statistical technique called Gaussian process regression, which allows predicting the performance of a new design based on previously tested designs. After providing a detailed introduction to Gaussian process regression, we introduce two Bayesian optimization methods: expected improvement, for design problems with noise-free evaluations; and the knowledge-gradient method, which generalizes expected improvement and may be used in design problems with noisy evaluations. Both methods are derived using a value-of-information analysis, and enjoy one-step Bayes-optimality

Aspiration therapy for the treatment of obesity: 4-year results of a multicenter randomized controlled trial.

BackgroundThe AspireAssist is the first Food and Drug Administration-approved endoluminal device indicated for treatment of class II and III obesity.ObjectivesWe earlier reported 1-year results of the PATHWAY study. Here, we report 4-year outcomes.SettingUnited States-based, 10-center, randomized controlled trial involving 171 participants with the treatment arm receiving Aspiration Therapy (AT) plus Lifestyle Therapy and the control arm receiving Lifestyle Therapy (2:1 randomization).MethodsAT participants were permitted to continue in the study for an additional year up to a maximum of 5 years providing they maintained at least 10% total weight loss (TWL) from baseline at each year end. For AT participants who continued the study, 5 medical monitoring visits were provided at weeks 60, 68, 76, 90, and 104 and thereafter once every 13 weeks up to week 260. Exclusion criteria were a history of eating disorder or evidence of eating disorder on a validated questionnaire. Follow-up weight, quality of life, and co-morbidities were compared with the baseline levels. In addition, rates of serious adverse event, persistent fistula, withdrawal, and A-tube replacement were reported. All analyses were performed using a per-protocol analysis.ResultsOf the 82 AT participants who completed 1 year, 58 continued to this phase of the trial. Mean baseline body mass index of these 58 patients was 41.6 ± 4.5 kg/m2. At the end of first year (at the beginning of the follow-up study), these 58 patients had a body mass index of 34.1 ± 5.4 kg/m2 and had achieved an 18.3 ± 8.0% TWL. On a per protocol basis, patients experienced 14.2%, 15.3%, 16.6%, and 18.7% TWL at 1, 2, 3, and 4 years, respectively (P < .01 for all). Forty of 58 patients (69%) achieved at least 10% TWL at 4 years or at time of study withdrawal. Improvements in quality of life scores and select cardiometabolic parameters were also maintained through 4 years. There were 2 serious adverse events reported in the second through fourth years, both of which resolved with removal or replacement of the A tube. Two persistent fistulas required surgical repair, representing approximately 2% of all tube removals. There were no clinically significant metabolic or electrolytes disorders observed, nor any evidence for development of any eating disorders.ConclusionsThe results of this midterm study have shown that AT is a safe, effective, and durable weight loss alternative for people with class II and III obesity and who are willing to commit to using the therapy and adhere to adjustments in eating behavior

Sequential design of computer experiments for the estimation of a probability of failure

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the volume of the excursion set of a function $f:\mathbb{R}^d \to \mathbb{R}$ above a given threshold, under a probability measure on $\mathbb{R}^d$ that is assumed to be known. In the industrial world, this corresponds to the problem of estimating a probability of failure of a system. When only an expensive-to-simulate model of the system is available, the budget for simulations is usually severely limited and therefore classical Monte Carlo methods ought to be avoided. One of the main contributions of this article is to derive SUR (stepwise uncertainty reduction) strategies from a Bayesian-theoretic formulation of the problem of estimating a probability of failure. These sequential strategies use a Gaussian process model of $f$ and aim at performing evaluations of $f$ as efficiently as possible to infer the value of the probability of failure. We compare these strategies to other strategies also based on a Gaussian process model for estimating a probability of failure.Comment: This is an author-generated postprint version. The published version is available at http://www.springerlink.co

Reliability of Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis for Estimating Whole‐Fish Energy Density and Percent Lipids

We evaluated bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) as a nonlethal means of predicting energy density and percent lipids for three fish species: Yellow perch Perca flavescens, walleye Sander vitreus, and lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis. Although models that combined BIA measures with fish wet mass provided strong predictions of total energy, total lipids, and total dry mass for whole fish, including BIA provided only slightly better predictions than using fish mass alone. Regression models that used BIA measures to directly predict the energy density or percent lipids of whole fish were generally better than those using body mass alone (based on Akaike’s information criterion). However, the goodness of fit of models that used BIA measures varied widely across species and at best explained only slightly more than one‐half the variation observed in fish energy density or percent lipids. Models that combined BIA measures with body mass for prediction had the strongest correlations between predicted and observed energy density or percent lipids for a validation group of fish, but there were significant biases in these predictions. For example, the models underestimated energy density and percent lipids for lipid‐rich fish and overestimated energy density and percent lipids for lipid‐poor fish. A comparison of observed versus predicted whole‐fish energy densities and percent lipids demonstrated that models that incorporated BIA measures had lower maximum percent error than models without BIA measures in them, although the errors for the BIA models were still generally high (energy density: 15‐18%; percent lipids: 82‐89%). Considerable work is still required before BIA can provide reliable predictions of whole‐fish energy density and percent lipids, including understanding how temperature, electrode placement, and the variation in lipid distribution within a fish affect BIA measures.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/141722/1/tafs1519.pd

D-cycloserine augmentation of exposure-based cognitive behavior therapy for anxiety, obsessive-compulsive, and posttraumatic stress disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data

Importance: Whether and under which conditions D-cycloserine (DCS) augments the effects of exposure-based cognitive behavior therapy for anxiety, obsessive-compulsive, and posttraumatic stress disorders is unclear. Objective: To clarify whether DCS is superior to placebo in augmenting the effects of cognitive behavior therapy for anxiety, obsessive-compulsive, and posttraumatic stress disorders and to evaluate whether antidepressants interact with DCS and the effect of potential moderating variables. Data Sources: PubMed, EMBASE, and PsycINFO were searched from inception to February 10, 2016. Reference lists of previous reviews and meta-analyses and reports of randomized clinical trials were also checked. Study Selection: Studies were eligible for inclusion if they were (1) double-blind randomized clinical trials of DCS as an augmentation strategy for exposure-based cognitive behavior therapy and (2) conducted in humans diagnosed as having specific phobia, social anxiety disorder, panic disorder with or without agoraphobia, obsessive-compulsive disorder, or posttraumatic stress disorder. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Raw data were obtained from the authors and quality controlled. Data were ranked to ensure a consistent metric across studies (score range, 0-100). We used a 3-level multilevel model nesting repeated measures of outcomes within participants, who were nested within studies. Results: Individual participant data were obtained for 21 of 22 eligible trials, representing 1047 of 1073 eligible participants. When controlling for antidepressant use, participants receiving DCS showed greater improvement from pretreatment to posttreatment (mean difference, -3.62; 95% CI, -0.81 to -6.43; P = .01; d = -0.25) but not from pretreatment to midtreatment (mean difference, -1.66; 95% CI, -4.92 to 1.60; P = .32; d = -0.14) or from pretreatment to follow-up (mean difference, -2.98, 95% CI, -5.99 to 0.03; P = .05; d = -0.19). Additional analyses showed that participants assigned to DCS were associated with lower symptom severity than those assigned to placebo at posttreatment and at follow-up. Antidepressants did not moderate the effects of DCS. None of the prespecified patient-level or study-level moderators was associated with outcomes. Conclusions and Relevance: D-cycloserine is associated with a small augmentation effect on exposure-based therapy. This effect is not moderated by the concurrent use of antidepressants. Further research is needed to identify patient and/or therapy characteristics associated with DCS response.2018-05-0

Characterization of Sulfolobus islandicus rod-shaped virus 2 gp19, a single-strand specific endonuclease

The hyperthermophilic Sulfolobus islandicus rod-shaped virus 2 (SIRV2) encodes a 25-kDa protein (SIRV2gp19) annotated as a hypothetical protein with sequence homology to the RecB nuclease superfamily. Even though SIRV2gp19 homologs are conserved throughout the rudivirus family and presumably play a role in the viral life cycle, SIRV2gp19 has not been functionally characterized. To define the minimal requirements for activity, SIRV2gp19 was purified and tested under varying conditions. SIRV2gp19 is a single-strand specific endonuclease that requires Mg2+ for activity and is inactive on double-stranded DNA. A conserved aspartic acid in RecB nuclease superfamily Motif II (D89) is also essential for SIRV2gp19 activity and mutation to alanine (D89A) abolishes activity. Therefore, the SIRV2gp19 cleavage mechanism is similar to previously described RecB nucleases. Finally, SIRV2gp19 single-stranded DNA endonuclease activity could play a role in host chromosome degradation during SIRV2 lytic infection

EON-ROSE and the Canadian Cordillera Array – Building Bridges to Span Earth System Science in Canada

EON-ROSE (Earth-System Observing Network - Réseau d’Observation du Système terrestrE) is a new initiative for a pan-Canadian research collaboration to holistically examine Earth systems from the ionosphere into the core. The Canadian Cordillera Array (CC Array) is the pilot phase, and will extend across the Cordillera from the Beaufort Sea to the U.S. border. The vision for EON-ROSE is to install a network of telemetered observatories to monitor solid Earth, environmental and atmospheric processes. EON-ROSE is an inclusive, combined effort of Canadian universities, federal, provincial and territorial government agencies, industry, and international collaborators. Brainstorming sessions and several workshops have been held since May 2016. The first station will be installed at Kluane Lake Research Station in southwestern Yukon during the summer of 2018. The purpose of this report is to provide a framework for continued discussion and development.RÉSUMÉEON-ROSE (Earth-System Observing Network - Réseau d’Observation du Système terrestrE) est une nouvelle initiative de collaboration de recherche pancanadienne visant à étudier de manière holistique les systèmes terrestres, depuis l’ionosphère jusqu’au noyau. Le Réseau canadien de la cordillère (CC Array) en est la phase pilote, laquelle couvrira toute la Cordillère, de la mer de Beaufort jusqu’à la frontière étasunienne. L’objectif d’EON-ROSE est d’installer un réseau d’observatoires télémétriques pour suivre en continu les processusterrestres, environnementaux et atmosphériques. EON-ROSE est un effort combiné et inclusif des universités canadiennes, des organismes gouvernementaux fédéraux, provinciaux et territoriaux, de l’industrie et de collaborateurs internationaux. Des séances de remue-méninges et plusieurs ateliers ont été tenus depuis mai 2016. La première station sera installée à la station de recherche du lac Kluane, dans le sud-ouest du Yukon, au cours de l’été 2018. Le but du présent rapport est de fournir un cadre de discussion et de développement continu

Revascularization for Unprotected Left Main Coronary Artery Disease: An Evolution in Clinical Decision Making

Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) has been considered the standard therapy for unprotected (nonrevascularized) left main coronary disease (ULM). However, increasing experience with ULM percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has resulted in high procedural success and favorable early and late clinical outcomes. In particular, reduction in clinical restenosis with drug-eluting stents, evolution of procedural technique, and demonstration of favorable outcomes from comparative trials with CABG have promoted consideration of PCI as an alternative revascularization strategy in selected patients with ULM disease. This review summarizes the results from comparative studies examining PCI versus CABG for ULM disease, discusses changing indications for ULM PCI and identifies outstanding issues that must be considered before further advancing treatment recommendations

Children, parents, and pets exercising together (CPET) randomised controlled trial: study rationale, design, and methods

Objectively measured physical activity is low in British children, and declines as childhood progresses. Observational studies suggest that dog-walking might be a useful approach to physical activity promotion in children and adults, but there are no published public health interventions based on dog-walking with children. The Children, Parents, and Pets Exercising Together Study aims to develop and evaluate a theory driven, generalisable, family-based, dog walking intervention for 9-11 year olds

Longitudinal Assessment of the Effect of Atrasentan on Thoracic Bioimpedance in Diabetic Nephropathy:A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND: Fluid retention is a common adverse event in patients who receive endothelin (ET) receptor antagonist therapy, including the highly selective ETA receptor antagonist, atrasentan. OBJECTIVE: We performed longitudinal assessments of thoracic bioimpedance in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and nephropathy to determine whether a decrease in bioimpedance accurately reflected fluid retention during treatment with atrasentan. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study in 48 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and nephropathy who were receiving stable doses of renin angiotensin system inhibitors and diuretics. METHODS: Patients were randomized 1:1:1 to placebo, atrasentan 0.5 mg, or atrasentan 1.25 mg once daily for 8 weeks. Thoracic bioimpedance, vital signs, clinical exams, and serologies were taken at weeks 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8, with the exception of serum hemoglobin, which was not taken at week 1, and serum brain natriuretic peptide, which was only taken at baseline, week 4, and week 8. RESULTS: Alterations in bioimpedance were more often present in those who received atrasentan than in those who received placebo, though overall differences were not statistically significant. Transient declines in thoracic bioimpedance during the first 2 weeks of atrasentan exposure occurred before or during peak increases in body weight and hemodilution (decreased serum hemoglobin). CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that thoracic bioimpedance did not reflect changes in weight gain or edema with atrasentan treatment in this study. However, the sample size was small, and it may be of interest to explore the use of thoracic bioimpedance in a larger population to understand its potential clinical use in monitoring fluid retention in patients with chronic kidney disease who receive ET receptor antagonists