The impacts of climate change on UK energy demand

The impacts of climate change on the energy system are diverse; this article focuses on the potential effects on UK energy demand and the ramifications for national infrastructure building on the findings of the UK’s 2012 Climate Change Risk Assessment. It reviews the available literature, where it exists, on the relationships among current energy demand, weather and climate change, and the implications for these relationships due to mitigation plans and potential adaptation responses. The review highlights the mechanisms by which future climate change, in particular changes in mean and extreme temperature, could affect the annual amount of UK energy demand and the seasonal, daily and spatial variation of the impacts. Published literature quantifying the effects of climate change on UK energy demand is limited; thus, where evidence is not available, information on the current relationship between weather and demand is combined with expert judgement to highlight potential demand responses to a changing climate without quantification. The impacts identified could have significant implications for the long-term planning of energy infrastructure and system operation and building design, depending on their magnitude, highlighting the need for further research in this area

Facilitating domestic demand response in Britain’s electricity system

Load flexibility can supplant some of the supply-side flexibility lost as intermittent renewables are installed and reduce the network investment needed to meet growing electricity demand. This diffusion of innovation study uses interviews to examine the factors that might lead to adopting or rejecting domestic demand response. The results show that policymakers can make the most of demand flexibility by aligning the technical and bidding requirements of different flexibility markets, regulating flexibility markets and aggregators to protect households participating in such markets, and making the energy price reflective of carbon content, location, and time of use

Mixed Integer Linear Programming Model of House with Heat Pump and Electric Vehicle in DNO Flexibility Market and Balancing Mechanism

Mixed interger linear programming problem written in Python using the Pyomo framework and GLPK solver. The problem examines the optimal demand schedule of a heat pump and electric vehicle when they are subject to a time-of-use tariff, distribution network operator flexibility market and the balancing mechanism. The heat pumps and electric vehicles actions are limited by the needs of the device owner, modelled as constraints

What if negative emission technologies fail at scale? : Implications of the Paris Agreement for big emitting nations

A cumulative emissions approach is increasingly used to inform mitigation policy. However, there are different interpretations of what 2 degrees C' implies. Here it is argued that cost-optimization models, commonly used to inform policy, typically underplay the urgency of 2 degrees C mitigation. The alignment within many scenarios of optimistic assumptions on negative emissions technologies (NETs), with implausibly early peak emission dates and incremental short-term mitigation, delivers outcomes commensurate with 2 degrees C commitments. In contrast, considering equity and socio-technical barriers to change, suggests a more challenging short-term agenda. To understand these different interpretations, short-term CO2 trends of the largest CO2 emitters, are assessed in relation to a constrained CO2 budget, coupled with a what if' assumption that negative emissions technologies fail at scale. The outcomes raise profound questions around high-level framings of mitigation policy. The article concludes that applying even weak equity criteria, challenges the feasibility of maintaining a 50% chance of avoiding 2 degrees C without urgent mitigation efforts in the short-term. This highlights a need for greater engagement with: (1) the equity dimension of the Paris Agreement, (2) the sensitivity of constrained carbon budgets to short-term trends and (3) the climate risks for society posed by an almost ubiquitous inclusion of NETs within 2 degrees C scenarios.POLICY RELEVANCESince the Paris meeting, there is increased awareness that most policy solutions' commensurate with 2 degrees C include widespread deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). Yet much less is understood about that option's feasibility, compared with near-term efforts to curb energy demand. Moreover, the many different ways in which key information is synthesized for policy makers, clouds the ability of policy makers to make informed decisions. This article presents an alternative approach to consider what the Paris Agreement implies, if NETs are unable to deliver more carbon sinks than sources. It illustrates the scale of the climate challenge for policy makers, particularly if the Agreement's aim to address equity' is accounted for. Here it is argued that much more attention needs to be paid to what CO2 reductions can be achieved in the short-term, rather than taking a risk that could render the Paris Agreement's policy goals unachievable