Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Understanding the role of genetic variability in LRRK2 in Indian population

Background: Genetic variability in LRRK2 has been unequivocally established as a major risk factor for familial and sporadic forms of PD in ethnically diverse populations. Objectives: To resolve the role of LRRK2 in the Indian population. Methods: We performed targeted resequencing of the LRRK2 locus in 288 cases and 298 controls and resolved the haplotypic structure of LRRK2 in a combined cohort of 800 cases and 402 controls in the Indian population. We assessed the frequency of novel missense variants in the white and East Asian population by leveraging exome sequencing and densely genotype data, respectively. We did computational modeling and biochemical approach to infer the potential role of novel variants impacting the LRRK2 protein function. Finally, we assessed the phosphorylation activity of identified novel coding variants in the LRRK2 gene. Results: We identified four novel missense variants with frequency ranging from 0.0008% to 0.002% specific for the Indian population, encompassing armadillo and kinase domains of the LRRK2 protein. A common genetic variability within LRRK2 may contribute to increased risk, but it was nonsignificant after correcting for multiple testing, because of small cohort size. The computational modeling showed destabilizing effect on the LRRK2 function. In comparison to the wild-type, the kinase domain variant showed 4-fold increase in the kinase activity. Conclusions: Our study, for the first time, identified novel missense variants for LRRK2, specific for the Indian population, and showed that a novel missense variant in the kinase domain modifies kinase activity in vitro

Replication of a Novel Parkinson's Locus in a European Ancestry Population

International audienceBackground: A recently published East Asian genome-wide association study of Parkinson;s disease (PD) reported 2 novel risk loci, SV2C and WBSCR17.Objectives: The objective of this study were to determine whether recently reported novel SV2C and WBSCR17 loci contribute to the risk of developing PD in European and East Asian ancestry populations.Methods: We report an association analysis of recently reported variants with PD in the COURAGE-PD cohort (9673 PD patients; 8465 controls) comprising individuals of European and East Asian ancestries. In addition, publicly available summary data (41,386 PD patients; 476,428 controls) were pooled.Results: Our findings confirmed the role of the SV2C variant in PD pathogenesis (rs246814, COURAGE-PD PEuropean = 6.64 × 10-4 , pooled PD P = 1.15 × 10-11 ). The WBSCR17 rs9638616 was observed as a significant risk marker in the East Asian pooled population only (P = 1.16 × 10-8 ).Conclusions: Our comprehensive study provides an up-to-date summary of recently detected novel loci in different PD populations and confirmed the role of SV2C locus as a novel risk factor for PD irrespective of the population or ethnic group analyzed. © 2021 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society

Resequencing the complete SNCA locus in Indian patients with Parkinson’s disease

Abstract The genetic loci implicated in familial Parkinson’s disease (PD) have limited generalizability to the Indian PD population. We tested mutations and the frequency of known mutations in the SNCA gene in a PD cohort from India. We selected 298 PD cases and 301 age-matched controls for targeted resequencing (before QC), along with 363 PD genomes of Indian ancestry and 1029 publicly available whole genomes from India as healthy controls (IndiGenomes), to determine the frequency of monogenic SNCA mutations. The raw sequence reads were analyzed using an in-house analysis pipeline, allowing the detection of small variants and structural variants using Manta. The in-depth analysis of the SNCA locus did not identify missense or structural variants, including previously identified SNCA mutations, in the Indian population. The familial forms of SNCA gene variants do not play a major role in the Indian PD population and this warrants further research in the under-represented population