Directional Prediction of Returns under Asymmetric Loss: Direct and Indirect Approaches

To predict a return characteristic, one may construct models of different complexity describing the dynamics of different objects. The most complex object is the entire predictive density, while the least complex is the characteristic whose forecast is of interest. This paper investigates, using experiments with real data, the relation between the complexity of the modeled object and the predictive quality of the return characteristic of interest, in the case when this characteristic is a return sign, or, equivalently, the direction-of-change. Importantly, we carry out the comparisons assuming that the underlying loss function is asymmetric, which is more plausible than the quadratic loss still prevailing in the analysis of returns. Our experiments are performed with returns of various frequencies on a stock market index and exchange rate. By and large, modeling the dynamics of returns by autoregressive conditional quantiles tends to produce forecasts of higher quality than modeling the whole predictive density or modeling the return indicators themselves.Directional prediction, sign prediction, model complexity, prediction quality, asymmetric loss, predictive density, conditional quantiles, binary autoregression

Ethno-cultural component in Sochi residents’ geopolitical consciousness

The article concerns crucial issues of Sochi residents’ political consciousness features formation in the context of toleration and interethnic dialog development, analyses factors, having effect on cultures interpenetration in Sochi politics

Mental Health of Liquidators of the Chernobyl Disaster

It is about one decade since the occurrence of the Chernobyl accident. Although it is generally assumed that many people are still suffered physically and mentally from radioactive contamination, we cannot say that their situation has been fully investigated. For two years, from 1990 to 1992, psychiatric influences on the people who had participated in cleaning the radioactive contaminated areas for some period from right after the accident were investigated, and this paper reports on the results of the investigation. The subjects were 274 people (222 males and 52 females): they answered questionnaires and the existence of the listed symptoms was confirmed. Most of the subjects had some kind of psychiatric symptoms, which were mainly asthenic, pseudo-neurotic, depressive, psychopathic and organic, but they were not so significant as to confirm a certain disease. However, they were suffered from negative effects on various social functions due to these psychiatric symptoms. We think these symptoms as a whole could be called a post-Chernobyl cerebrasthenic syndrome

«THEATRE OF THE BEAR» OR ON DRAMA OF THE CEREMONIAL PERFORMANCE

The article is devoted to bear festival held by the ethnic groups of the Amur-Sakhalin region on the subject of the killed bear in the hunting field. The festival is regarded as a phenomenon of not only ritual, but also the aesthetic culture as a possible form of folk theater

Mental Health of Liquidators of the Chernobyl Disaster

It is about one decade since the occurrence of the Chernobyl accident. Although it is generally assumed that many people are still suffered physically and mentally from radioactive contamination, we cannot say that their situation has been fully investigated. For two years, from 1990 to 1992, psychiatric influences on the people who had participated in cleaning the radioactive contaminated areas for some period from right after the accident were investigated, and this paper reports on the results of the investigation. The subjects were 274 people (222 males and 52 females): they answered questionnaires and the existence of the listed symptoms was confirmed. Most of the subjects had some kind of psychiatric symptoms, which were mainly asthenic, pseudo-neurotic, depressive, psychopathic and organic, but they were not so significant as to confirm a certain disease. However, they were suffered from negative effects on various social functions due to these psychiatric symptoms. We think these symptoms as a whole could be called a post-Chernobyl cerebrasthenic syndrome

Features of development of organizations in the context of digital transformation

The article characterizes the main trends in the development of organizations in modern economic conditions: the spread of coronavirus infection, a new industrial revolution, a shift in political courses, an increase in economic nationalism, a desire to maintain sustainability, digital transformation. To achieve the goal - to identify the features of the development of organizations in the context of digital transformation - the authors investigated the status of digital transformation in the Russian Federation by industry, the priorities of the digital transformation directions of Russian companies, the success factors of digital transformation. The paper analyses the use and implementation of modern technological solutions in the activities of enterprises in the context of digital transformation. In conclusion, the authors emphasize the role of the head of an organization that implements digital technologies to achieve strategic goals in the context of the transformation of the economic space

Dynamics of Broadband Lasing Cascade from a Single Dot-in-well InGaAs Microdisk

The development of a fast semiconductor laser is required for the realization of next-generation telecommunication applications. Since lasers operating on quantum dot ground state transitions exhibit only limited gain due to the saturation effect, we investigate lasing from excited states and compare its corresponding static and dynamic behavior to the one from the ground state. InAs quantum dots (QDs) grown in dot-in-well (DWELL) structures allowed to obtain light emission from ground and three excited states in a spectral range of 1.0–1.3 μm. This emission was coupled to whispering gallery modes (WGMs) of a 6 μm microdisk resonator and studied at room temperature by steady-state and time-resolved micro-photoluminescence. We demonstrate a cascade development of lasing arising from the ladder of quantum dot states, and compare the lasing behavior of ground and excited state emission. While the lasing threshold is being increased from the ground state to the highest excited state, the dynamic behavior is improved: turn-on times and lifetimes of WGMs become shorter paving the way towards high frequency direct driven microlasers. © 2019, The Author(s)

Распространенность металло-β-лактамаз и эффлюкс-механизмов у карбапенемрезистентных госпитальных штаммов Pseudomonas aeruginosa, выделенных в г. Москве в 2012–2015 гг.

Background. Pseudomonas aeruginosa, the major nosocomial opportunistic pathogen, is an important cause of infectious morbidity and mortality among immunocompromised patients.Objective. To establish the role of metallo-β-lactamases (MBL) and efflux-mediated mechanisms in conferring carbapenem resistance in nosocomial isolates of P. aeruginosa.Methods. We analyzed carbapenem nonsusceptible nosocomial P. aeruginosa isolates obtained from pediatric and adult patients at three hospitals in Moscow in 2012–2015. Carbapenem susceptibility was assessed using the E-test. In addition, minimal inhibitory concentrations (MICs) of meropenem were tested by the broth microdilution method. The presence of MBL was determined using the EDTA-mediated suppression test. Efflux-dependent resistance was measured using an assay based on MIC modification by an ionophore carbonyl cyanide 3-chlorophenyl hydrazine (CCCP).Results. A total of 54 carbapenem nonsusceptible P. aeruginosa isolates was examined. The presence of an MBL was detected in 37 (69%) isolates, 29 (54%) isolates had efflux-mediated resistance. In 10 (19%) isolates neither MBL nor efflux activity was found. Five out of 6 isolates (83%) with highly active efflux were MBL-positive. Among isolates with low efflux activity, 74% (17/23) possessed MBL, whereas in isolates with no efflux the rate of MBL-positivity was 60% (15/25).Conclusion. The prevalence of MBL- and efflux-mediated carbapenem resistance in nosocomial P. aeruginosa is high. Moreover, our results reveal that several resistance mechanisms may combine at the isolate level. These data may contribute to the development of novel strategies in combating carbapenem resistance.Обоснование. Синегнойная палочка — Pseudomonas aeruginosa — входит в число наиболее актуальных возбудителей оппортунистических инфекций, являясь одной из главных причин госпитальной заболеваемости.Цель: проанализировать роль металло-β-лактамаз (МБЛ) и эффлюкс-механизмов в формировании карбапенемрезистентности у госпитальных штаммов P. aeruginosa.Методы. В качестве объектов исследования были использованы 54 изолята P. aeruginosa от детей и взрослых пациентов из трех госпиталей города Москвы, полученных в течение 2012–2015 гг. Для всех штаммов были определены минимальные подавляющие концентрации (МПК) меропенема. Все отобранные штаммы были протестированы на наличие МБЛ путем подавления их активности этилендиаминтетрауксусной кислотой. Оценка активности эффлюкс-систем производилась на основе определения степени подавления МПК под влиянием ингибитора эффлюкса карбонил-цианид-3-хлорфенилгидразона.Результаты. Было выявлено 69% (37/54) МБЛ-продуцирующих штаммов [МБЛ(+)], значимость эффлюкс-механизмов в формировании карбапенемрезистентности подтверждена у 54% (29/54) штаммов. В 19% (10/54) карбапенемрезистентных изолятов P. aeruginosa не обнаружено ни МБЛ, ни активности эффлюкс-систем. Распространенность МБЛ положительно коррелировала (rS =0,068) с активностью эффлюкса: среди бактерий с отсутствием эффлюкс-активности было 60% МБЛ(+)-штаммов, среди изолятов с умеренным эффлюксом — 74%, а в популяции с гиперэкспрессией эффлюкса 83% штаммов обладали МБЛ.Заключение. Полученные результаты иллюстрируют широкую распространенность важнейших механизмов карбапенемрезистентности — МБЛ- и эффлюкс-активности — и доказывают существование сложных сочетаний различных форм устойчивости у одного и того же штамма. Полученная информация может быть полезной для создания лечебно-профилактических методов борьбы с карбапенемрезистентностью