Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents

Funding: J.M.C., A.D.L., E.F.L., and E.A.M. were supported by a Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment—Environmental Ventures Program grant (PIs: E.A.M., A.D.L., and E.F.L.). E.A.M. was also supported by a Hellman Faculty Fellowship and a Terman Award. A.D.L., B.A.N., F.M.M., E.N.G.S., M.S.S., A.R.K., R.D., A.A., and H.N.N. were supported by a National Institutes of Health R01 grant (AI102918; PI: A.D.L.). E.A.M., A.M.S.I., and S.J.R. were supported by a National Science Foundation (NSF) Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases (EEID) grant (DEB-1518681), and A.M.S.I. and S.J.R. were also supported by an NSF DEB RAPID grant (1641145). E.A.M. was also supported by a National Institute of General Medical Sciences Maximizing Investigators’ Research Award grant (R35GM133439) and an NSF and Fogarty International Center EEID grant (DEB-2011147).Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28-85% for vectors, 44-88% for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Research agenda for preventing mosquito-transmitted diseases through improving the built environment in sub-Saharan Africa

Mosquito-transmitted diseases are a major threat to health in sub-Saharan Africa, but could be reduced through modifications to the built environment. Here we report findings from a major workshop held to identify the research gaps in this area, namely: (1) evidence of the health benefits to changes to the built environment, (2) understanding how mosquitoes enter buildings, (3) novel methods for reducing mosquito-house entry, (4) sustainable approaches for reducing mosquito habitats, (5) case studies of micro-financing for healthy homes and (6) methods for increasing scale-up. Multidisciplinary research is essential to build out mosquito-transmitted diseases, and not build them in

Understanding the relation between Zika virus infection during pregnancy and adverse fetal, infant and child outcomes: a protocol for a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis of longitudinal studies of pregnant women and their infants and children

IntroductionZika virus (ZIKV) infection during pregnancy is a known cause of microcephaly and other congenital and developmental anomalies. In the absence of a ZIKV vaccine or prophylactics, principal investigators (PIs) and international leaders in ZIKV research have formed the ZIKV Individual Participant Data (IPD) Consortium to identify, collect and synthesise IPD from longitudinal studies of pregnant women that measure ZIKV infection during pregnancy and fetal, infant or child outcomes.Methods and analysisWe will identify eligible studies through the ZIKV IPD Consortium membership and a systematic review and invite study PIs to participate in the IPD meta-analysis (IPD-MA). We will use the combined dataset to estimate the relative and absolute risk of congenital Zika syndrome (CZS), including microcephaly and late symptomatic congenital infections; identify and explore sources of heterogeneity in those estimates and develop and validate a risk prediction model to identify the pregnancies at the highest risk of CZS or adverse developmental outcomes. The variable accuracy of diagnostic assays and differences in exposure and outcome definitions means that included studies will have a higher level of systematic variability, a component of measurement error, than an IPD-MA of studies of an established pathogen. We will use expert testimony, existing internal and external diagnostic accuracy validation studies and laboratory external quality assessments to inform the distribution of measurement error in our models. We will apply both Bayesian and frequentist methods to directly account for these and other sources of uncertainty.Ethics and disseminationThe IPD-MA was deemed exempt from ethical review. We will convene a group of patient advocates to evaluate the ethical implications and utility of the risk stratification tool. Findings from these analyses will be shared via national and international conferences and through publication in open access, peer-reviewed journals.Trial registration numberPROSPERO International prospective register of systematic reviews (CRD42017068915).</jats:sec

S1 Data.

<p><b>S1 Data. Files 1, 2, and 3: Case data aggregated to neighborhood level with neighborhood characteristics.</b> All cases were mapped to the neighborhood level. <b>Folder A in S1 Data. Shape files.</b> Shapefiles were used to define the neighborhoods. <b>Folder B in S1 Data. Geodatabase of shapefiles. </b>Neighborhood characteristic. DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.5172508<b></b></p><p> </p><p><b> </b></p><p><b></b></p

S1 Text.

<p><b>S1 Text. Geonarrative Transcripts.</b> All SVG interviews were transcribed in Spanish and translated from Spanish to English by Fluent and Native speakers. DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.5172502</p

S2 Text.

<p><b>S2 Text. SVG interviewee prompts.</b> SVG interviews were semi-structured and led by the local expert or leader. These questions were used to prompt leaders to point risks related to arboviral transmission in the neighborhood. DOI 10.6084/m9.figshare.5197315</p

S3 Text.

<p><b>S3 Text. SVG Interview Footnotes. </b>All SVG interviews were transcribed and translated. We used examples taken from these expert narratives throughout the paper to illustrate the various points being raised. CHW = community health worker, VC = vector control specialist. DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.5172970</p

alphavirus and flavivirus data

Jittered (5km) gps points of cases (alpha and flavi viruses) and raw data for lasso model and table 1

Optimization of a Membrane Feeding Assay for Plasmodium vivax Infection in Anopheles albimanus.

INTRODUCTION:Individuals exposed to malaria infections for a long time develop immune responses capable of blocking Plasmodium transmission to mosquito vectors, potentially limiting parasite spreading in nature. Development of a malaria TB vaccine requires a better understanding of the mechanisms and main effectors responsible for transmission blocking (TB) responses. The lack of an in vitro culture system for Plasmodium vivax has been an important drawback for development of a standardized method to assess TB responses to this parasite. This study evaluated host, vector, and parasite factors that may influence Anopheles mosquito infection in order to develop an efficient and reliable assay to assess the TB immunity. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:A total of 94 P. vivax infected patients were enrolled as parasite donors or subjects of direct mosquito feeding in two malaria endemic regions of Colombia (Tierralta, and Buenaventura). Parasite infectiousness was assessed by membrane feeding assay or direct feeding assay using laboratory reared Anopheles mosquitoes. Infection was measured by qPCR and by microscopically examining mosquito midguts at day 7 for the presence of oocysts. Best infectivity was attained in four day old mosquitoes fed at a density of 100 mosquitos/cage. Membrane feeding assays produced statistically significant better infections than direct feeding assays in parasite donors; cytokine profiles showed increased IFN-γ, TNF and IL-1 levels in non-infectious individuals. Mosquito infections and parasite maturation were more reliably assessed by PCR compared to microscopy. CONCLUSIONS:We evaluated mosquito, parasite and host factors that may affect the outcome of parasite transmission as measured by artificial membrane feeding assays. Results have led us to conclude that: 1) optimal mosquito infectivity occurs with mosquitoes four days after emergence at a cage density of 100; 2) mosquito infectivity is best quantified by PCR as it may be underestimated by microscopy; 3) host cellular immune response did not appear to significantly affect mosquito infectivity; and 4) no statistically significant difference was observed in transmission between mosquitoes directly feeding on humans and artificial membrane feeding assays