Relative Risk Regression in Medical Research: Models, Contrasts, Estimators, and Algorithms

The relative risk or prevalence ratio is a natural and familiar summary of association between a binary outcome and an exposure or intervention. For rare events, the relative risk can be approximately estimated by logistic regression. For common events estimation is more difficult. We review proposed estimation algorithms for relative risk regression. Some of these give inconsistent estimates or invalid standard errors. We show that the methods that give correct inference can be viewed as arising from a family of quasilikelihood estimating functions for the same generalized linear model, differing in their efficiency and in their robustness to outlying values of the predictors. We give recommendations for fitting relative risk regression models in various popular statistical systems

Semiparametric Two-Part Models with Proportionality Constraints: Analysis of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

SUMMARY. In this article, we analyze the coronary artery calcium (CAC) score in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), where about half of the CAC scores are zero and the rest are continuously distributed. When the observed data has a mixture distribution, two-part models can be the natural choice. With a two-part model, there are two covariate effects, with one in each part of the model. Determination of whether the two covariate effects are proportional can provide more insights into the process underlying development and progression of CAC. In this study, we model the CAC score using a semiparametric two-part model, and investigate the determination of proportionality of the covariate effects. We propose penalized maximum likelihood estimation and using thin plate splines in practical data analysis, and establish asymptotic estimation properties. We propose a step-wise hypothesis testing based approach to determine proportionality. Simulation studies suggest satisfactory finite-sample performance of the proposed approach. Analysis of the MESA data suggests that proportionality holds for all covariates except the LDL and HDL

Racial/ethnic heterogeneity in associations of blood pressure and incident cardiovascular disease by functional status in a prospective cohort: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

OBJECTIVES:Research has demonstrated that the association between high blood pressure and outcomes is attenuated among older adults with functional limitations, compared with healthier elders. However, it is not known whether these patterns vary by racial/ethnic group. We evaluated race/ethnicity-specific patterns of effect modification in the association between blood pressure and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) by functional status. SETTING:We used data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (2002-2004, with an average of 8.8 years of follow-up for incident CVD). We assessed effect modification of systolic blood pressure and cardiovascular outcomes by self-reported physical limitations and by age. PARTICIPANTS:The study included 6117 participants (aged 46 to 87; 40% white, 27% black, 22% Hispanic and 12% Chinese) who did not have CVD at the second study examination (when self-reported physical limitations were assessed). OUTCOME MEASURES:Incident CVD was defined as an incident myocardial infarction, coronary revascularisation, resuscitated cardiac arrest, angina, stroke (fatal or non-fatal) or death from CVD. RESULTS:We observed weaker associations between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and CVD among white adults with physical limitations (incident rate ratio (IRR) per 10 mm Hg higher SBP: 1.09 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.20)) than those without physical limitations (IRR 1.29 (1.19, 1.40); P value for interaction <0.01). We found a similar pattern among black adults. Poor precision among the estimates for Hispanic or Chinese participants limited the findings in these groups. The attenuated associations were consistent across both multiplicative and additive scales, though physical limitations showed clearer patterns than age on an additive scale. CONCLUSION:Attenuated associations between high blood pressure and incident CVD were observed for blacks and whites with poor function, though small sample sizes remain a limitation for identifying differences among Hispanic or Chinese participants. Identifying the characteristics that distinguish those in whom higher SBP is associated with less risk of morbidity or mortality may inform our understanding of the consequences of hypertension among older adults

Risk Factors for Long-Term Coronary Artery Calcium Progression in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BackgroundCoronary artery calcium (CAC) detected by noncontrast cardiac computed tomography scanning is a measure of coronary atherosclerosis burden. Increasing CAC levels have been strongly associated with increased coronary events. Prior studies of cardiovascular disease risk factors and CAC progression have been limited by short follow-up or restricted to patients with advanced disease.Methods and resultsWe examined cardiovascular disease risk factors and CAC progression in a prospective multiethnic cohort study. CAC was measured 1 to 4 times (mean 2.5 scans) over 10 years in 6810 adults without preexisting cardiovascular disease. Mean CAC progression was 23.9 Agatston units/year. An innovative application of mixed-effects models investigated associations between cardiovascular disease risk factors and CAC progression. This approach adjusted for time-varying factors, was flexible with respect to follow-up time and number of observations per participant, and allowed simultaneous control of factors associated with both baseline CAC and CAC progression. Models included age, sex, study site, scanner type, and race/ethnicity. Associations were observed between CAC progression and age (14.2 Agatston units/year per 10 years [95% CI 13.0 to 15.5]), male sex (17.8 Agatston units/year [95% CI 15.3 to 20.3]), hypertension (13.8 Agatston units/year [95% CI 11.2 to 16.5]), diabetes (31.3 Agatston units/year [95% CI 27.4 to 35.3]), and other factors.ConclusionsCAC progression analyzed over 10 years of follow-up, with a novel analytical approach, demonstrated strong relationships with risk factors for incident cardiovascular events. Longitudinal CAC progression analyzed in this framework can be used to evaluate novel cardiovascular risk factors

Late systolic central hypertension as a predictor of incident heart failure : the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Background: Experimental studies demonstrate that high aortic pressure in late systole relative to early systole causes greater myocardial remodeling and dysfunction, for any given absolute peak systolic pressure. Methods and Results: We tested the hypothesis that late systolic hypertension, defined as the ratio of late (last one third of systole) to early (first two thirds of systole) pressure-time integrals (PTI) of the aortic pressure waveform, independently predicts incident heart failure (HF) in the general population. Aortic pressure waveforms were derived from a generalized transfer function applied to the radial pressure waveform recorded noninvasively from 6124 adults. The late/early systolic PTI ratio (L/ESPTI) was assessed as a predictor of incident HF during median 8.5 years of follow-up. The L/ESPTI was predictive of incident HF (hazard ratio per 1% increase= 1.22; 95% CI= 1.15 to 1.29; P58.38%) was more predictive of HF than the presence of hypertension. After adjustment for each other and various predictors of HF, the HR associated with hypertension was 1.39 (95% CI= 0.86 to 2.23; P=0.18), whereas the HR associated with a high L/E was 2.31 (95% CI=1.52 to 3.49; P<0.0001). Conclusions: Independently of the absolute level of peak pressure, late systolic hypertension is strongly associated with incident HF in the general population

Coronary Artery Surgery Study (CASS): Comparability of 10 year survival in randomized and randomizable patients

AbstractThe Coronary Artery Surgery Study (CASS) includes 780 patients with mild or moderate stable angina pectoris or asymptomatic survivors of a myocardial infarction who were randomized to either medical or surgical therapy and 1,319 patients who were eligible for randomization but were not randomized (randomizable patients). There were no substantial aggregate differences observed in any of the survival comparisons after 10 years of follow-up study between the randomized and randomizable patients assigned to the medical (79% versus 80%) or surgical (82% versus 81%) groups or in patient subgroups stratified according to coronary artery disease extent and left ventricular ejection fraction.Cox regression analyses were done with independent variables known to be predictors of survival, including surgical versus medical therapy and randomized versus randomizable group, to test the null hypothesis of a mortality difference between medical versus surgical assignment according to group assignment (randomized versus randomizable). In no case did the initial group category enter as a significant predictor of survival. The results in the randomizable group reinforce those in the randomized group with respect to the medical versus surgical comparison.Two subgroups are identified with a significant surgical advantage: 1) patients with proximal left anterior descending coronary artery stenosis ≥70% and an ejection fraction < 0.50, and 2) patients with three vessel coronary artery disease and an ejection fraction < 0.50. In both groups, coronary bypass surgery had a statistically significant beneficial effect on survival (p < 0.05).After a decade of follow-up, the CASS randomizable patients confirm conclusions reached on the basis of the CASS randomized trial

Giardiasis: Impact on child growth

Artículo científico -- Universidad de Costa Rica. Instituto de Investigaciones en Salud, 1986Chronic disorders of the gastrointestinal tract may impair physical growth during infancy and childhood. Growth retardation has been particularly well documented in children with Crohn's disease and coeliac disease in which growth retardation may occur in the absence of gastrointestinal symptoms. Recurrent and persistent infection in infancy and childhood is also associated with growth retardation, the major offenders being infections of the respiratory and gastrointestinal tracts. The pathogenic mechanisms of growth disturbance in chronic disease are poorly understood. Possible candidates include reduced dietary intake as a result of anorexia, food withholding following cultural practice or physician's advice and increased energy expenditure associated with fever and infection. Nutritional deprivation due to intestinal malabsorption is probably a less important factor in inflammatory bowel disease but may be more relevant in coeliac disease and infective disorders of the intestine. Although Giardia is now an established intestinal pathogen its relationship to child growth and development has not been clearly defined. However, giardiasis (1) frequently affects infants and children; (2) is known to cause morphological damage of the small intestine and malabsorption of a variety of nutrients 15 ; (3) is not always a self-limiting infection and may persist for many weeks or months; (4) has been shown to impair physical growth in some individuals with Giardia infection. There is, however, very little population-based data on the effect of Giardia infection on physical growth during infancy and childhood and thus the impact of this parasite at a community level is largely unknown. The parasite may be excreted by apparently asymptomatic individuals and thus before widespread strategies for the control of this infection are introduced the extent of its clinical impact must be established.Universidad de Costa Rica. Instituto de Investigaciones en Salud.UCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias de la Salud::Instituto de Investigaciones en Salud (INISA

Renal insufficiency as a predictor of cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in elderly individuals

AbstractObjectivesThis study was designed to evaluate the relationship between elevated creatinine levels and cardiovascular events.BackgroundEnd-stage renal disease is associated with high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The association of mild to moderate renal insufficiency with cardiovascular outcomes remains unclear.MethodsWe analyzed data from the Cardiovascular Health Study, a prospective population-based study of subjects, aged >65 years, who had a serum creatinine measured at baseline (n = 5,808) and were followed for a median of 7.3 years. Proportional hazards models were used to examine the association of creatinine to all-cause mortality and incident cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. Renal insufficiency was defined as a creatinine level ≥1.5 mg/dl in men or ≥1.3 mg/dl in women.ResultsAn elevated creatinine level was present in 648 (11.2%) participants. Subjects with elevated creatinine had higher overall (76.7 vs. 29.5/1,000 years, p < 0.001) and cardiovascular (35.8 vs. 13.0/1,000 years, p < 0.001) mortality than those with normal creatinine levels. They were more likely to develop cardiovascular disease (54.0 vs. 31.8/1,000 years, p < 0.001), stroke (21.1 vs. 11.9/1,000 years, p < 0.001), congestive heart failure (38.7 vs. 17/1,000 years, p < 0.001), and symptomatic peripheral vascular disease (10.6 vs. 3.5/1,000 years, p < 0.001). After adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors and subclinical disease measures, elevated creatinine remained a significant predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, total cardiovascular disease (CVD), claudication, and congestive heart failure (CHF). A linear increase in risk was observed with increasing creatinine.ConclusionsElevated creatinine levels are common in older adults and are associated with increased risk of mortality, CVD, and CHF. The increased risk is apparent early in renal disease