Recruitment Variability in North Atlantic Cod and Match-Mismatch Dynamics

Background Fisheries exploitation, habitat destruction, and climate are important drivers of variability in recruitment success. Understanding variability in recruitment can reveal mechanisms behind widespread decline in the abundance of key species in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. For fish populations, the match-mismatch theory hypothesizes that successful recruitment is a function of the timing and duration of larval fish abundance and prey availability. However, the underlying mechanisms of match-mismatch dynamics and the factors driving spatial differences between high and low recruitment remain poorly understood. Methodology/Principal Findings We used empirical observations of larval fish abundance, a mechanistic individual-based model, and a reanalysis of ocean temperature data from 1960 to 2002 to estimate the survival of larval cod (Gadus morhua). From the model, we quantified how survival rates changed during the warmest and coldest years at four important cod spawning sites in the North Atlantic. The modeled difference in survival probability was not large for any given month between cold or warm years. However, the cumulative effect of higher growth rates and survival through the entire spawning season in warm years was substantial with 308%, 385%, 154%, and 175% increases in survival for Georges Bank, Iceland, North Sea, and Lofoten cod stocks, respectively. We also found that the importance of match-mismatch dynamics generally increased with latitude. Conclusions/Significance Our analyses indicate that a key factor for enhancing survival is the duration of the overlap between larval and prey abundance and not the actual timing of the peak abundance. During warm years, the duration of the overlap between larval fish and their prey is prolonged due to an early onset of the spring bloom. This prolonged season enhances cumulative growth and survival, leading to a greater number of large individuals with enhanced potential for survival to recruitment

The swimming kinematics of larval Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua L., are resilient to elevated seawater pCO2

Kinematics of swimming behavior of larval Atlantic cod, aged 12 and 27 days post-hatch (dph) and cultured under three pCO2 conditions (control-370, medium-1800, and high-4200 μatm) from March to May 2010, were extracted from swim path recordings obtained using silhouette video photography. The swim paths were analyzed for swim duration, distance and speed, stop duration, and horizontal and vertical turn angles to determine whether elevated seawater pCO2—at beyond near-future ocean acidification levels—affects the swimming kinematics of Atlantic cod larvae. There were no significant differences in most of the variables tested: the swimming kinematics of Atlantic cod larvae at 12 and 27 dph were highly resilient to extremely elevated pCO2 levels. Nonetheless, cod larvae cultured at the highest pCO2 concentration displayed vertical turn angles that were more restricted (median turn angle, 15°) than larvae in the control (19°) and medium (19°) treatments at 12 dph (but not at 27 dph). Significant reduction in the stop duration of cod larvae from the high treatment (median stop duration, 0.28 s) was also observed compared to the larvae from the control group (0.32 s) at 27 dph (but not at 12 dph). The functional and ecological significance of these subtle differences are unclear and, therefore, require further investigation in order to determine whether they are ecologically relevant or spurious