Exponential distribution of long heart beat intervals during atrial fibrillation and their relevance for white noise behaviour in power spectrum

The statistical properties of heart beat intervals of 130 long-term surface electrocardiogram recordings during atrial fibrillation (AF) are investigated. We find that the distribution of interbeat intervals exhibits a characteristic exponential tail, which is absent during sinus rhythm, as tested in a corresponding control study with 72 healthy persons. The rate of the exponential decay lies in the range 3-12 Hz and shows diurnal variations. It equals, up to statistical uncertainties, the level of the previously uncovered white noise part in the power spectrum, which is also characteristic for AF. The overall statistical features can be described by decomposing the intervals into two statistically independent times, where the first one is associated with a correlated process with 1/f noise characteristics, while the second one belongs to an uncorrelated process and is responsible for the exponential tail. It is suggested to use the rate of the exponential decay as a further parameter for a better classification of AF and for the medical diagnosis. The relevance of the findings with respect to a general understanding of AF is pointed out

Arrhythmic risk prediction in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy : external validation of the arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy risk calculator

Aims: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) causes ventricular arrhythmias (VAs) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). In 2019, a risk prediction model that estimates the 5-year risk of incident VAs in ARVC was developed (ARVCrisk.com). This study aimed to externally validate this prediction model in a large international multicentre cohort and to compare its performance with the risk factor approach recommended for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) use by published guidelines and expert consensus. Methods and results: In a retrospective cohort of 429 individuals from 29 centres in North America and Europe, 103 (24%) experienced sustained VA during a median follow-up of 5.02 (2.05-7.90) years following diagnosis of ARVC. External validation yielded good discrimination [C-index of 0.70 (95% confidence interval-CI 0.65-0.75)] and calibration slope of 1.01 (95% CI 0.99-1.03). Compared with the three published consensus-based decision algorithms for ICD use in ARVC (Heart Rhythm Society consensus on arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy, International Task Force consensus statement on the treatment of ARVC, and American Heart Association guidelines for VA and SCD), the risk calculator performed better with a superior net clinical benefit below risk threshold of 35%. Conclusion: Using a large independent cohort of patients, this study shows that the ARVC risk model provides good prognostic information and outperforms other published decision algorithms for ICD use. These findings support the use of the model to facilitate shared decision making regarding ICD implantation in the primary prevention of SCD in ARVC

Heart Rate Recovery After Exercise Is Associated With Arrhythmic Events in Patients With Catecholaminergic Polymorphic Ventricular Tachycardia

BACKGROUND: Risk stratification in catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia remains ill defined. Heart rate recovery (HRR) immediately after exercise is regulated by autonomic reflexes, particularly vagal tone, and may be associated with symptoms and ventricular arrhythmias in patients with catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia. Our objective was to evaluate whether HRR after maximal exercise on the exercise stress test (EST) is associated with symptoms and ventricular arrhythmias. METHODS: In this retrospective observational study, we included patients ≤65 years of age with an EST without antiarrhythmic drugs who attained at least 80% of their age- and sex-predicted maximal HR. HRR in the recovery phase was calculated as the difference in heart rate (HR) at maximal exercise and at 1 minute in the recovery phase (ΔHRR1'). RESULTS: We included 187 patients (median age, 36 years; 68 [36%] symptomatic before diagnosis). Pre-EST HR and maximal HR were equal among symptomatic and asymptomatic patients. Patients who were symptomatic before diagnosis had a greater ΔHRR1' after maximal exercise (43 [interquartile range, 25-58] versus 25 [interquartile range, 19-34] beats/min; P<0.001). Corrected for age, sex, and relatedness, patients in the upper tertile for ΔHRR1' had an odds ratio of 3.4 (95% CI, 1.6-7.4) of being symptomatic before diagnosis (P<0.001). In addition, ΔHRR1' was higher in patients with complex ventricular arrhythmias at EST off antiarrhythmic drugs (33 [interquartile range, 22-48] versus 27 [interquartile range, 20-36] beats/min; P=0.01). After diagnosis, patients with a ΔHRR1' in the upper tertile of its distribution had significantly more arrhythmic events as compared with patients in the other tertiles (P=0.045). CONCLUSIONS: Catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia patients with a larger HRR following exercise are more likely to be symptomatic and have complex ventricular arrhythmias during the first EST off antiarrhythmic drug

Sudden cardiac death prediction in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy: a multinational collaboration

Background:Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is associated with ventricular arrhythmias (VA) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). A model was recently developed to predict incident sustained VA in patients with ARVC. However, since this outcome may overestimate the risk for SCD, we aimed to specifically predict life-threatening VA (LTVA) as a closer surrogate for SCD.Methods:We assembled a retrospective cohort of definite ARVC cases from 15 centers in North America and Europe. Association of 8 prespecified clinical predictors with LTVA (SCD, aborted SCD, sustained, or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator treated ventricular tachycardia >250 beats per minute) in follow-up was assessed by Cox regression with backward selection. Candidate variables included age, sex, prior sustained VA (>= 30s, hemodynamically unstable, or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator treated ventricular tachycardia; or aborted SCD), syncope, 24-hour premature ventricular complexes count, the number of anterior and inferior leads with T-wave inversion, left and right ventricular ejection fraction. The resulting model was internally validated using bootstrapping.Results:A total of 864 patients with definite ARVC (40 +/- 16 years; 53% male) were included. Over 5.75 years (interquartile range, 2.77-10.58) of follow-up, 93 (10.8%) patients experienced LTVA including 15 with SCD/aborted SCD (1.7%). Of the 8 prespecified clinical predictors, only 4 (younger age, male sex, premature ventricular complex count, and number of leads with T-wave inversion) were associated with LTVA. Notably, prior sustained VA did not predict subsequent LTVA (P=0.850). A model including only these 4 predictors had an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69-0.80) and calibration slope of 0.95 (95% CI, 0.94-0.98) indicating minimal over-optimism.Conclusions:LTVA events in patients with ARVC can be predicted by a novel simple prediction model using only 4 clinical predictors. Prior sustained VA and the extent of functional heart disease are not associated with subsequent LTVA events.Cardiolog

Sudden Cardiac Death Prediction in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy: A Multinational Collaboration

BACKGROUND: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is associated with ventricular arrhythmias (VA) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). A model was recently developed to predict incident sustained VA in patients with ARVC. However, since this outcome may overestimate the risk for SCD, we aimed to specifically predict life-threatening VA (LTVA) as a closer surrogate for SCD. METHODS: We assembled a retrospective cohort of definite ARVC cases from 15 centers in North America and Europe. Association of 8 prespecified clinical predictors with LTVA (SCD, aborted SCD, sustained, or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator treated ventricular tachycardia >250 beats per minute) in follow-up was assessed by Cox regression with backward selection. Candidate variables included age, sex, prior sustained VA (≥30s, hemodynamically unstable, or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator treated ventricular tachycardia; or aborted SCD), syncope, 24-hour premature ventricular complexes count, the number of anterior and inferior leads with T-wave inversion, left and right ventricular ejection fraction. The resulting model was internally validated using bootstrapping. RESULTS: A total of 864 patients with definite ARVC (40±16 years; 53% male) were included. Over 5.75 years (interquartile range, 2.77-10.58) of follow-up, 93 (10.8%) patients experienced LTVA including 15 with SCD/aborted SCD (1.7%). Of the 8 prespecified clinical predictors, only 4 (younger age, male sex, premature ventricular complex count, and number of leads with T-wave inversion) were associated with LTVA. Notably, prior sustained VA did not predict subsequent LTVA (P=0.850). A model including only these 4 predictors had an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69-0.80) and calibration slope of 0.95 (95% CI, 0.94-0.98) indicating minimal over-optimism. CONCLUSIO

A new prediction model for ventricular arrhythmias in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy

AIMS: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia/cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is characterized by ventricular arrhythmias (VAs) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). We aimed to develop a model for individualized prediction of incident VA/SCD in ARVC patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: Five hundred and twenty-eight patients with a definite diagnosis and no history of sustained VAs/SCD at baseline, aged 38.2 ± 15.5 years, 44.7% male, were enrolled from five registries in North America and Europe. Over 4.83 (interquartile range 2.44-9.33) years of follow-up, 146 (27.7%) experienced sustained VA, defined as SCD, aborted SCD, sustained ventricular tachycardia, or appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy. A prediction model estimating annual VA risk was developed using Cox regression with internal validation. Eight potential predictors were pre-specified: age, sex, cardiac syncope in the prior 6 months, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, number of premature ventricular complexes in 24 h, number of leads with T-wave inversion, and right and left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEFs). All except LVEF were retained in the final model. The model accurately distinguished patients with and without events, with an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.77 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73-0.81] and minimal over-optimism [calibration slope of 0.93 (95% CI 0.92-0.95)]. By decision curve analysis, the clinical benefit of the model was superior to a current consensus-based ICD placement algorithm with a 20.6% reduction of ICD placements with the same proportion of protected patients (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Using the largest cohort of patients with ARVC and no prior VA, a prediction model using readily available clinical parameters was devised to estimate VA risk and guide decisions regarding primary prevention ICDs (www.arvcrisk.com)

Pacemaker therapy in patients with neurally mediated syncope and documented asystole: Third international study on syncope of uncertain etiology (ISSUE-3): A randomized trial

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of cardiac pacing for prevention of syncopal recurrences in patients with neurally mediated syncope is controversial. We wanted to determine whether pacing therapy reduces syncopal recurrences in patients with severe asystolic neurally mediated syncope. METHODS AND RESULTS: Double-blind, randomized placebo-controlled study conducted in 29 centers in the Third International Study on Syncope of Uncertain Etiology (ISSUE-3) trial. Patients were ≥40 years, had experienced ≥3 syncopal episodes in the previous 2 years. Initially, 511 patients, received an implantable loop recorder; 89 of these had documentation of syncope with ≥3 s asystole or ≥6 s asystole without syncope within 12 ± 10 months and met criteria for pacemaker implantation; 77 of 89 patients were randomly assigned to dual-chamber pacing with rate drop response or to sensing only. The data were analyzed on intention-to-treat principle. There was syncope recurrence during follow-up in 27 patients, 19 of whom had been assigned to pacemaker OFF and 8 to pacemaker ON. The 2-year estimated syncope recurrence rate was 57% (95% CI, 40-74) with pacemaker OFF and 25% (95% CI, 13-45) with pacemaker ON (log rank: P=0.039 at the threshold of statistical significance of 0.04). The risk of recurrence was reduced by 57% (95% CI, 4-81). Five patients had procedural complications: lead dislodgment in 4 requiring correction and subclavian vein thrombosis in 1 patient. CONCLUSIONS: Dual-chamber permanent pacing is effective in reducing recurrence of syncope in patients ≥40 years with severe asystolic neurally mediated syncope. The observed 32% absolute and 57% relative reduction in syncope recurrence support this invasive treatment for the relatively benign neurally mediated syncope. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00359203

CD2Alloy: Class Diagrams Analysis Using Alloy Revisited

Abstract. We present CD2Alloy, a novel, powerful translation of UML class diagrams (CDs) to Alloy. Unlike existing translations, which are based on a shallow embedding strategy, and are thus limited to checking consistency and generating conforming object models of a single CD, and support a limited set of CD language features, CD2Alloy uses a deeper embedding strategy. Rather than mapping each CD construct to a semantically equivalent Alloy construct, CD2Alloy defines (some) CD constructs as new concepts within Alloy. This enables solving several analysis problems that involve more than one CD and could not be solved by earlier works, and supporting an extended list of CD language features. The ideas are implemented in a prototype Eclipse plug-in. The work advances the state-of-the-art in CD analysis, and can also be viewed as an interesting case study for the different possible translations of one modeling language to another, their strengths and weaknesses.