Policies for food security in India : an assessment of current policies and reform options

Ever since India’s independence large-scale government interventions have been drastically shaping the landscape of the food grain sector. From a famine-prone country, India has become a large exporter and stockholder, with stable domestic prices and several nutrition programs. At the same time, 15 per cent of Indian population is still undernourished. The Indian government is currently implementing one of the world largest food aid programs - the National Food Security Act (NFSA) – in the course of which it experiences many challenges and needs rigorous analysis of the measures and tools of managing the system. Additionally, there is a strong international pressure on India to liberalize its policies in the food grain sector. The present dissertation studies various aspects of the food grain policies in India aiming to provide their comprehensive analysis. We use econometric time-series techniques to ex-post evaluate the impacts of the policy measures on the market outcomes. Among other conclusions, we find a strong response of the wheat and rice production to the support prices whereas the rice consumption is mostly driven by the distribution of the subsidized grains. Due to protectionist trade policies, the grain export is so distorted that its volumes hardly correlate with the prices. We detect a clear upward trend in inflation adjusted fiscal costs, started in 2006-07, as a consequence of growing procurement, storage and distribution of wheat and rice. We develop a dynamic partial equilibrium model with stochastic production shocks, based on the econometric results mentioned above. We produce mid-term simulations of different scenarios with possible policy measures to comply with the NFSA obligations based on the current, in-kind, system. We find that the high pressure on fiscal costs and public stocks, put by the NFSA, can be mitigated at the cost of higher and more volatile market prices. Our simulations indicate that a cash-based regime, alternative to the in-kind distribution, generates lower fiscal costs while the total stocks remain sufficient due to the increase of the private stocks. However, the higher market prices and volatility characterizing this scenario may negatively affect the producers, consumers, and the political stability. Basing on household consumption data, by means of cross-sectional econometric techniques we analyze the consumption patterns of wheat and rice delivered through the Public Distribution System (PDS), targeting errors and reasons for leakage, self-selection and under-supply of staples. We find some serious targeting errors of the PDS: many poor households are not included in the system and migrant workers and female-led households are often not well covered. There is a negative self-selection of the richer households that results in cost savings, which would be lost under a cash-transfer scheme. We find that the leakage rates are in general very low for poor households and regions. Furthermore, we find that subsidizing increases the total consumption of wheat and rice. This increase, however, produces additional pressure on the prices that can have negative consequences for the poor excluded from the system because of the high targeting errors

Valuing quality seeds and species diversity in FLR: Simulation modelling for cost-benefit analysis

Forest Landscape Restoration (FLR) aims at reestablishing the ecological functionality of degraded terrestrial ecosystems, as well as changing land-management practices to sustain local economic growth for the benefit of local livelihoods and for society in the long term. FLR projects embracing quality planting material, in terms of genetic diversity and site adaptation, provide better performances regarding growth and resilience. Consequently, they are expected to deliver a more efficient cost-benefit ratio. We propose a numerical model that simulates a one-hectare FLR project in order to explore the dynamics of the cost-benefit ratio over the period of 20 years. The model quantifies the impact of the use of quality planting material on the health of the plantation and its consequent economic value. A case study of a Prosopis pallida plantation in the dry forest of the north of Peru shows no relevant additional costs, but significant additional benefits of the use of quality planting material. This result holds both for an intensive commercial plantation and a conservation project that entails almost zero maintenance

Exploring opportunities around climate-smart breeding for future food and nutrition security

There is a 95% chance that warming will exceed 2°C by the end of the century (Raftery et al. 2017). Global crop productivity is projected to fall by 5-10 % per degree of warming (Challinor et al. 2014), with even greater losses likely for some crops in some areas. The challenge of meeting future food demand is increasing, and climate change is already diminishing our ability to adapt through crop breeding (Challinor et al. 2016; Aggarwal et al. 2019). Recent research is suggesting that increases in climate variability are already affecting the number of food-insecure people, and that increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations may affect the nutrient content of some food staples, with serious implications for food and nutrition security (Smith and Myers 2018). New crop varieties will be needed that can deliver higher yields as well as possessing the ability to withstand heat and greater tolerances for the secondary effects of a warmer world, such as increased pressures from drought, water-logging, pests and diseases, and reduced nutritional quality due to higher levels of CO2. The systems for accelerated delivery of climate-resilient varieties into food producers’ hands need to be massively upgraded (Cramer 2018). Innovative holistic breeding strategies for multiple traits will be needed that embrace the full pipeline from trait discovery to varietal deployment and seed system development

Reassessing the cost-effectiveness of high-provitamin A bananas to reduce vitamin A deficiency in Uganda

There are two high-provitamin A (pVA) banana-based interventions potentially available in Uganda—biofortified genetically modified (GM) banana and fast-tracked banana landraces from outside Uganda that are naturally high in provitamin A (nHpVA). Based on the newest country statistics and using adoption scenarios obtained through focus group discussions and expert interviews, we assess obstacles and opportunities for adoption as well as cost-effectiveness of these interventions. In two alternative scenarios for the GM banana (M9 matooke), we assume 40% and 64% adoption rates, which would result in US$29,374,151 and US$63,259,415 in income saved, respectively. As an alternative, for the symmetrical scenarios, we calculate that if the nHpVA banana (Apantu plantain, native of Ghana) were to be adopted, US$46,100,148 and US$76,364,988 in income would be saved. Taking into account the full cost of R&D, we estimate that the M9 matooke could save one disability-adjusted life year (DALY) at a cost of US$67.37 at best and US$145.09 at worst. We estimate that the Apantu plantain could save one DALY at a cost of US$50.54 at best and US$83.72 at worst. Our DALY analysis estimates that all assessed HpVA banana interventions are extremely cost-effective in all scenarios, following both the World Bank's and the WHO criteria. Nevertheless, successful interventions would require extensive promotion campaigns and shifts in agricultural value chains

The future of sustainable development and agrobiodiversity in Tanzania and Uganda

This document is part of a series of short papers on “The Future of X”, produced as part of foresight-related research supported by the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets, and edited by Keith Wiebe (IFPRI) and Steven Prager (Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT). These short papers are intended to provide a focused, forward-looking perspective on key issues to support discussion on food, land, and water systems transformation. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their comments on an earlier draft. This is an accepted version presented as a pre-print. It is currently undergoing final revision, editing, and production. A final version will be made available at http://foresight.cgiar.org

Responding to future regime shifts with agrobiodiversity: A multi-level perspective on small-scale farming in Uganda

We analyse the impact of two large-scale regime shifts caused by disease incidence or climate change, and associated crop productivity and price changes, on banana-based smallholders in Uganda. We evaluate these farmers' vulnerability and assess the potential of using increased crop diversity to improve their resilience. We further explore trade-offs and synergies between environmental, economic and nutritional outcomes faced by the farmers in their decision making when a regime shift occurs. We simulate the large-scale scenarios with the IMPACT model and use the results obtained to assess their effect at the local level using the bio-economic farm-household model, FarmDESIGN. Our results indicate that climate change can lead to a regime shift that expands revenue variance, increases soil erosion and reduces vitamin A yield for farmers. Banana disease can negatively impact income levels and species diversity. We show that under both scenarios farmers have scope to reconfigure their farms and recover farm performance. Specifically, we discuss the benefits of species diversity; increasing agrobiodiversity by adding new crops increases the farm's adaptive capacity and resilience, allowing for much higher revenues, on-farm crop diversity and vitamin A production. The conceptual approach and the method we developed can be applied to assess the local synergies and trade-offs between crop diversity conservation, nutrition, environmental protection and human nutrition that farmers face as a result of global drivers. Our results offer a further understanding of how biodiverse systems respond to regime shifts, which can inform effective policy design. Our method can be also useful to help farmers manage their farms in a way to better meet their complex needs.</p

Przeszczepienie nerki u bezobjawowej pacjentki wysokiego ryzyka sercowo-naczyniowego — opis przypadku oraz przegląd literatury

Cardiovascular complications are the most frequent cause of death of patients with Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) at each stage of this disease. Cardiovascular risk decreases after kidney transplantation, but it still remains high, with 5% of deaths due to acute coronary syndrome occurring in the first year following kidney transplantation. In the case of CKD patients, cardiovas­cular complications secondary to rapidly progressing atherosclerosis result from both conventional and un­conventional ischaemic heart disease (IHD) risk fac­tors, the latter being conditioned by a specific metabolic nature of this disease. Following kidney transplantation, this risk is increased both by the surgical procedure it­self and an atherogenic activity of immunosuppressive drugs. A well-documented angiospastic effect of calci­neurin inhibitors is also of importance here. This study discusses a case of a 58-year-old female patient receiving hemodialysis, with G5 stage CKD secondary to diabetic kidney disease, with a history of type 2 diabetes of many years, and many cardiovas­cular complications. The long qualification process for kidney transplantation is analyzed, focusing on its different stages, as well as difficulties during the transplantation procedure and complications after kidney transplantation, resulting in the loss of the graft during one-year follow-up period. Additionally, reports from available studies that suggest a selec­tion of immunosuppressive drugs in high cardio­vascular risk patients are discussed. Complications experienced by the patient following the transplan­tation — myocardial infarction with a sudden car­diac arrest, life-threatening cardiogenic shock, acute transplant rejection, and finally the loss of the graft, serve the authors to discuss benefits and losses in the kidney transplantation qualification process in the case of patients with such complex risk factors.Powikłania sercowo-naczyniowe to najczęstsza przyczyna zgonów pacjentów z przewlekłą chorobą nerek (PChN) na każdym etapie tej choroby. Ryzyko sercowo-naczyniowe po przeszczepieniu nerki ma­leje, ale nadal pozostaje na wysokim poziomie; 5% zgonów z powodu ostrego zespołu wieńcowego wy­stępuje w pierwszym roku po przeszczepieniu nerki. W przypadku pacjentów z PChN do powikłań serco­wo-naczyniowych na tle szybko postępującej miaż­dżycy tętnic doprowadzają zarówno konwencjonalne, jak i niekonwencjonalne czynniki ryzyka choroby nie­dokrwiennej serca (ChNS); te ostatnie są uwarunko­wane szczególnym tłem metabolicznym choroby. Po przeszczepieniu nerki ryzyko to zwiększają sam za­bieg operacyjny oraz aterogenne oddziaływanie leków immunosupresyjnych. Rolę odgrywa tu również do­brze udokumentowane naczynioskurczowe działanie inhibitorów kalcyneuryny. W pracy opisano przypadek 58-letniej hemodializo­wanej pacjentki z PChN w stadium G5 w przebiegu cukrzycowej choroby nerek, z wieloletnią cukrzycą typu 2, z licznymi powikłaniami sercowo-naczy­niowymi. Przeanalizowano etapami długotrwały proces kwalifikacji do przeszczepienia nerki, trud­ności podczas zabiegu transplantacji, powikłania po przeszczepieniu nerki, zakończone w rocznej obserwacji utratą nerki przeszczepionej. Przyto­czono również dane z piśmiennictwa, sugerujące dobór protokołu immunosupresyjnego u pacjen­tów wysokiego ryzyka sercowo-naczyniowego. Skomplikowane losy pacjentki po transplantacji — przebyty zawał z nagłym zatrzymaniem krąże­nia, wstrząs kardiogenny z bezpośrednim zagroże­niem życia, ostre odrzucanie nerki przeszczepionej, a wreszcie jej utrata — posłużyły autorom pracy do otwartej dyskusji nad bilansem zysków i strat w procesie kwalifikacji do przeszczepienia nerki tak obciążonych biorców