From Data to Causes I: Building A General Cross-Lagged Panel Model (GCLM)

This is the first paper in a series of two that synthesizes, compares, and extends methods for causal inference with longitudinal panel data in a structural equation modeling (SEM) framework. Starting with a cross-lagged approach, this paper builds a general cross-lagged panel model (GCLM) with parameters to account for stable factors while increasing the range of dynamic processes that can be modeled. We illustrate the GCLM by examining the relationship between national income and subjective well-being (SWB), showing how to examine hypotheses about short-run (via Granger-Sims tests) versus long-run effects (via impulse responses). When controlling for stable factors, we find no short-run or long-run effects among these variables, showing national SWB to be relatively stable, whereas income is less so. Our second paper addresses the differences between the GCLM and other methods. Online Supplementary Materials offer an Excel file automating GCLM input for Mplus (with an example also for Lavaan in R) and analyses using additional data sets and all program input/output. We also offer an introductory GCLM presentation at https://youtu.be/tHnnaRNPbXs. We conclude with a discussion of issues surrounding causal inference

WGS-based telomere length analysis in Dutch family trios implicates stronger maternal inheritance and a role for RRM1 gene

Telomere length (TL) regulation is an important factor in ageing, reproduction and cancer development. Genetic, hereditary and environmental factors regulating TL are currently widely investigated, however, their relative contribution to TL variability is still understudied. We have used whole genome sequencing data of 250 family trios from the Genome of the Netherlands project to perform computational measurement of TL and a series of regression and genome-wide association analyses to reveal TL inheritance patterns and associated genetic factors. Our results confirm that TL is a largely heritable trait, primarily with mother’s, and, to a lesser extent, with father’s TL having the strongest influence on the offspring. In this cohort, mother’s, but not father’s age at conception was positively linked to offspring TL. Age-related TL attrition of 40 bp/year had relatively small influence on TL variability. Finally, we have identified TL-associated variations in ribonuclease reductase catalytic subunit M1 (RRM1 gene), which is known to regulate telomere maintenance in yeast. We also highlight the importance of multivariate approach and the limitations of existing tools for the analysis of TL as a polygenic heritable quantitative trait

From Data to Causes I: Building A General Cross-Lagged Panel Model (GCLM)

his is the first paper in a series of two that synthesizes, compares, and extends methods for causal inference with longitudinal panel data in a structural equation modeling (SEM) framework. Starting with a cross-lagged approach, this paper builds a general cross-lagged panel model (GCLM) with parameters to account for stable factors while increasing the range of dynamic processes that can be modeled. We illustrate the GCLM by examining the relationship between national income and subjective well-being (SWB), showing how to examine hypotheses about short-run (via Granger-Sims tests) versus long-run effects (via impulse responses). When controlling for stable factors, we find no short-run or long-run effects among these variables, showing national SWB to be relatively stable, whereas income is less so. Our second paper addresses the differences between the GCLM and other methods. Online Supplementary Materials offer an Excel file automating GCLM input for Mplus (with an example also for Lavaan in R) and analyses using additional data sets and all program input/output. We also offer an introductory GCLM presentation at https://youtu.be/tHnnaRNPbXs. We conclude with a discussion of issues surrounding causal inference. All authors: Michael J. Zyphur, Paul D. Allison, Louis Tay, Manuel C. Voelkle, Kristopher J. Preacher, Zhen Zhang, Ellen L. Hamaker, Ali Shamsollahi, Dean C. Pierides, Peter Koval, Ed Diene

From Data to Causes II: Comparing Approaches to Panel Data Analysis

This article compares a general cross-lagged model (GCLM) to other panel data methods based on their coherence with a causal logic and pragmatic concerns regarding modeled dynamics and hypothesis testing. We examine three “static” models that do not incorporate temporal dynamics: random- and fixed-effects models that estimate contemporaneous relationships; and latent curve models. We then describe “dynamic” models that incorporate temporal dynamics in the form of lagged effects: cross-lagged models estimated in a structural equation model (SEM) or multilevel model (MLM) framework; Arellano-Bond dynamic panel data methods; and autoregressive latent trajectory models. We describe the implications of overlooking temporal dynamics in static models and show how even popular cross-lagged models fail to control for stable factors over time. We also show that Arellano-Bond and autoregressive latent trajectory models have various shortcomings. By contrasting these approaches, we clarify the benefits and drawbacks of common methods for modeling panel data, including the GCLM approach we propose. We conclude with a discussion of issues regarding causal inference, including difficulties in separating different types of time-invariant and time-varying effects over time