Modelling the species jump: towards assessing the risk of human infection from novel avian influenzas

The scientific understanding of the driving factors behind zoonotic and pandemic influenzas is hampered by complex interactions between viruses, animal hosts and humans. This complexity makes identifying influenza viruses of high zoonotic or pandemic risk, before they emerge from animal populations, extremely difficult and uncertain. As a first step towards assessing zoonotic risk of Influenza, we demonstrate a risk assessment framework to assess the relative likelihood of influenza A viruses, circulating in animal populations, making the species jump into humans. The intention is that such a risk assessment framework could assist decisionmakers to compare multiple influenza viruses for zoonotic potential and hence to develop appropriate strain-specific control measures. It also provides a first step towards showing proof of principle for an eventual pandemic risk model. We show that the spatial and temporal epidemiology is as important in assessing the risk of an influenza A species jump as understanding the innate molecular capability of the virus.We also demonstrate data deficiencies that need to be addressed in order to consistently combine both epidemiological and molecular virology data into a risk assessment framework

A risk assessment for Salmonella in pigs in Great Britain

Along with poultry, pig meat has been identified as a potential source of human food borne Salmonella infection. In order to minimise the risk of human illness, a number of EU countries have initiated Salmonella monitoring programmes for pigs (e.g. Denmark, Germany, UK) and EU requirements for control of Salmonella in pigs will be based on the results of recent surveys together with risk assessment and economic studies that are under way . However, control programmes cannot be successful unless practical interventions are available for pig fanners and producers to implement. Therefore, as part of a large risk-based study investigating control of Salmonella in pigs, a full British farm-to-consumption risk assessment has been developed in order to predict the impact of interventions upon the risk of human disease. The interventions investigated within the risk assessment were: vaccination, feeding of organic acids, rodent control, anal bunging and washing and drying of the carcass at dehairing

Prognostic Role of Gene Mutations in Chronic Myelomonocytic Leukemia Patients Treated With Hypomethylating Agents

Somatic mutations contribute to the heterogeneous prognosis of chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML). Hypomethylating agents (HMAs) are active in CMML, but analyses of small series failed to identify mutations predicting response or survival. We analyzed a retrospective multi-center cohort of 174 CMML patients treated with a median of 7 cycles of azacitidine (n = 68) or decitabine (n = 106). Sequencing data before treatment initiation were available for all patients, from Sanger (n = 68) or next generation (n = 106) sequencing. Overall response rate (ORR) was 52%, including complete response (CR) in 28 patients (17%). In multivariate analysis, ASXL1 mutations predicted a lower ORR (Odds Ratio [OR] = 0.85, p = 0.037), whereas TET2mut/ASXL1wt genotype predicted a higher CR rate (OR = 1.18, p = 0.011) independently of clinical parameters. With a median follow-up of 36.7 months, overall survival (OS) was 23.0 months. In multivariate analysis, RUNX1mut (Hazard Ratio [HR] = 2.00, p = .011), CBLmut (HR = 1.90, p = 0.03) genotypes and higher WBC (log10(WBC) HR = 2.30, p = .005) independently predicted worse OS while the TET2mut/ASXL1wt predicted better OS (HR = 0.60, p = 0.05). CMML-specific scores CPSS and GFM had limited predictive power. Our results stress the need for robust biomarkers of HMA activity in CMML and for novel treatment strategies in patients with myeloproliferative features and RUNX1 mutations. Keywords: Chronic myelomonocytic leukemia, Hypomethylating agents, Somatic mutations, Prognosi

Chronic myelomonocytic leukemia in younger patients : molecular and cytogenetic predictors of survival and treatment outcome

In patients with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML), age>65 years is an adverse prognostic factor. Our objective in the current study was to examine risk factors for survival and treatment outcome in 261 'young' adults with CMML, as defined by age \u2a7d65 years. In multivariable analysis, lower HB (P=0.01), higher circulating blast % (P=0.002), ASXL1 (P=0.0007) and SRSF2 mutations (P=0.008) and Mayo-French cytogenetic stratification (P=0.04) negatively impacted survival. Similarly, leukemia-free survival was independently affected by higher circulating blast % (P<0.0001), higher bone marrow blast % (P=0.0007) and the presence of circulating immature myeloid cells (P=0.0002). Seventy-five (29%) patients received hypomethylating agents (HMA), with the median number of cycles being 5, and the median duration of therapy being 5 months. The over-all response rate was 40% for azacitidine and 30% for decitabine. Fifty-three (24%) patients underwent an allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (AHSCT), with a response rate of 56% and a non-relapse mortality of 19%. Survival in young adults with CMML, although higher than in older patients, is poor and even worse in the presence of ASXL1 and SRSF2 mutations. Treatment outcome was more impressive with AHSCT than with HMA and neither was influenced by ASXL1/SRSF2 mutations or karyotype

Improved Upper Limit on the Neutrino Mass from a Direct Kinematic Method by KATRIN.

We report on the neutrino mass measurement result from the first four-week science run of the Karlsruhe Tritium Neutrino experiment KATRIN in spring 2019. Beta-decay electrons from a high-purity gaseous molecular tritium source are energy analyzed by a high-resolution MAC-E filter. A fit of the integrated electron spectrum over a narrow interval around the kinematic end point at 18.57&nbsp;keV gives an effective neutrino mass square value of (-1.0_{-1.1}^{+0.9})  eV^{2}. From this, we derive an upper limit of 1.1&nbsp;eV (90%&nbsp;confidence level) on the absolute mass scale of neutrinos. This value coincides with the KATRIN sensitivity. It improves upon previous mass limits from kinematic measurements by almost a factor of 2 and provides model-independent input to cosmological studies of structure formation

Influenza at the animal-human interface : a review of the literature for virological evidence of human infection with swine or avian influenza viruses other than A(H5N1)

Factors that trigger human infection with animal influenza virus progressing into a pandemic are poorly understood. Within a project developing an evidence-based risk assessment framework for influenza viruses in animals, we conducted a review of the literature for evidence of human infection with animal influenza viruses by diagnostic methods used. The review covering Medline, Embase, SciSearch and CabAbstracts yielded 6,955 articles, of which we retained 89; for influenza A(H5N1) and A(H7N9), the official case counts of the World Health Organization were used. An additional 30 studies were included by scanning the reference lists. Here, we present the findings for confirmed infections with virological evidence. We found reports of 1,419 naturally infected human cases, of which 648 were associated with avian influenza virus (AIV) A(H5N1), 375 with other AIV subtypes, and 396 with swine influenza virus (SIV). Human cases naturally infected with AIV spanned haemagglutinin subtypes H5, H6, H7, H9 and H10. SIV cases were associated with endemic SIV of H1 and H3 subtype descending from North American and Eurasian SIV lineages and various reassortants thereof. Direct exposure to birds or swine was the most likely source of infection for the cases with available information on exposure

Commissioning of the vacuum system of the KATRIN Main Spectrometer

The KATRIN experiment will probe the neutrino mass by measuring the beta-electron energy spectrum near the endpoint of tritium beta-decay. An integral energy analysis will be performed by an electro-static spectrometer (Main Spectrometer), an ultra-high vacuum vessel with a length of 23.2 m, a volume of 1240 m^3, and a complex inner electrode system with about 120000 individual parts. The strong magnetic field that guides the beta-electrons is provided by super-conducting solenoids at both ends of the spectrometer. Its influence on turbo-molecular pumps and vacuum gauges had to be considered. A system consisting of 6 turbo-molecular pumps and 3 km of non-evaporable getter strips has been deployed and was tested during the commissioning of the spectrometer. In this paper the configuration, the commissioning with bake-out at 300{\deg}C, and the performance of this system are presented in detail. The vacuum system has to maintain a pressure in the 10^{-11} mbar range. It is demonstrated that the performance of the system is already close to these stringent functional requirements for the KATRIN experiment, which will start at the end of 2016.Comment: submitted for publication in JINST, 39 pages, 15 figure