КОНСТИТУЦИЯ ИРАКА 2005 ГОДА И ПРИНЦИПЫ ИСЛАМА*

The  article analyses constitutional provisions of the Republic of Iraq (2005) referring to Shari‘a and Islam in general. It offers a comparative analysis of the present Constitution and the previous one (1970). It is demonstrated that there are virtually no significant places  for Shari‘a and Islam in the Constitution of 1970. The Constitution of 2005 offers  a more meaningful role for the  Islamic  principles.  It is also  demonstrated that still the new Constitution of Iraq has very limited mentions of Islam which can be connected with the pressure of the provisional American occupation authorities, as well as Shi‘a — Sunni contradictions. The Administration of the Coalition Provisional Authority of Iraq produced a tough resistance to  the attempts to include Islamic principles in any project of future Constitution. As a result, the final version  of the constitution was neither Sunni nor Shi‘a. Against  this  background, the  very fact of a reduced number of references to Islam (without Shia or Sunni connotations) might have been regarded as a sort of compromise. Meanwhile, it can be concluded that throughout the extremely complicated political history of the country the consensus in constitutional construction has not been obtained so far.Статья посвящена исследованию норм  Конституции Республики Ирак 2005 года, касающихся шариата и ислама в целом. Проводится сравнительный анализ действующей Конституции республики с предыдущей Конституцией 1970 года. Показано, что в Конституции 1970 года шариату и исламу практически не было отведено существенного места, в то время как Конституция 2005 года отводит принципам ислама более заметную роль

Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization

Do human societies from around the world exhibit similarities in the way that they are structured, and show commonalities in the ways that they have evolved? These are long-standing questions that have proven difficult to answer. To test between competing hypotheses, we constructed a massive repository of historical and archaeological information known as "Seshat: Global History Databank." We systematically coded data on 414 societies from 30 regions around the world spanning the last 10,000 years. We were able to capture information on 51 variables reflecting nine characteristics of human societies, such as social scale, economy, features of governance, and information systems. Our analyses revealed that these different characteristics show strong relationships with each other and that a single principal component captures around three-quarters of the observed variation. Furthermore, we found that different characteristics of social complexity are highly predictable across different world regions. These results suggest that key aspects of social organization are functionally related and do indeed coevolve in predictable ways. Our findings highlight the power of the sciences and humanities working together to rigorously test hypotheses about general rules that may have shaped human history

Big Gods and big science: further reflections on theory, data, and analysis

Published versio

An Introduction to Seshat: Global History Databank

This article introduces the Seshat: Global History Databank, its potential, and its methodology. Seshat is a databank containing vast amounts of quantitative data buttressed by qualitative nuance for a large sample of historical and archaeological polities. Thee sample is global in scope and covers the period from the Neolithic Revolution to the Industrial Revolution. Seshat allows scholars to capture dynamic processes and to test theories about the co-evolution (or not) of social scale and complexity, agriculture, warfare, religion, and any number of such Big Questions. Seshat is rapidly becoming a massive resource for innovative cross-cultural and cross-disciplinary research. Seshat is part of a growing trend to use comparative historical data on a large scale and contributes as such to a growing consilience between the humanities and social sciences. Seshat is underpinned by a robust and transparent workflow to ensure the ever growing dataset is of high quality

Clusters of alcohol abstainers and drinkers incorporating motives against drinking: a random survey of 18 to 34 year olds in four cities in four different continents

Objective: The aim of this analysis was to identify alcohol consumption clusters for adolescents and early adults according to attitudes to drinking, motivations against drinking and perceptions associated with alcohol. Method: Interviews were undertaken with people aged 18–34 years old living in four cities in different regions of the world. Multistage random sampling was consistent across the four cities (Ilorin (Nigeria), Wuhan (China), Montevideo (Uruguay) and Moscow (Russia)). The questionnaire was forward and back translated into relevant languages and face-to-face interviewing undertaken. The data were weighted to the population of each city. In total 6235 structured interviews were undertaken (1391 in Ilorin, 1600 in Montevideo, 1604 in Moscow and 1640 in Wuhan). Questions regarding motivation against alcohol consumption (14 items), assessing perceptions (3 items) and attitudes to drinking in certain situations (8 items) were asked of all respondents including abstainers. Factor analysis was initially undertaken to identify highly related correlated variables. Results: Cluster analysis provided a variety of clusters (Ilorin (3 clusters), Montevideo (5), Moscow (4) and Wuhan (4)). At least one cluster in each city was dominated by abstainers and another by heavy episodic drinkers. Variations by city and alcohol consumption patterns existed in regards to variables included. Conclusion: This analysis detailed the city specific motivations against drinking alcohol, and the attitudes towards alcohol consumption. Differences highlight the influence of country/city specific culture, customs, laws, societal norms and traditions

On the dynamics of the world demographic transition and financial-economic crises forecasts

The article considers dynamic processes involving non-linear power-law behavior in such apparently diverse spheres, as demographic dynamics and dynamics of prices of highly liquid commodities such as oil and gold. All the respective variables exhibit features of explosive growth containing precursors indicating approaching phase transitions/catastrophes/crises. The first part of the article analyzes mathematical models of demographic dynamics that describe various scenarios of demographic development in the post-phase-transition period, including a model that takes the limitedness of the Earth carrying capacity into account. This model points to a critical point in the early 2050s, when the world population, after reaching its maximum value may decrease afterward stabilizing then at a certain stationary level. The article presents an analysis of the influence of the demographic transition (directly connected with the hyperexponential growth of the world population) on the global socioeconomic and geopolitical development. The second part deals with the phenomenon of explosive growth of prices of such highly liquid commodities as oil and gold. It is demonstrated that at present the respective processes could be regarded as precursors of waves of the global financial-economic crisis that will demand the change of the current global economic and political system. It is also shown that the moments of the start of the first and second waves of the current global crisis could have been forecasted with a model of accelerating log-periodic fluctuations superimposed over a power-law trend with a finite singularity developed by Didier Sornette and collaborators. With respect to the oil prices, it is shown that it was possible to forecast the 2008 crisis with a precision up to a month already in 2007. The gold price dynamics was used to calculate the possible time of the start of the second wave of the global crisis (July–August 2011); note that this forecast has turned out to be quite correct

The Struggle between the Qatari-Turkish and Saudi-Emirati Bloc for the Infl uence in Afghanistan

The article is devoted to the analysis of the confrontation between the Qatari-Turkish and Saudi-Emirate blocs for the influence in the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. It was found out that with the change of power in August 2021 in Afghanistan, a number of regional players tried to assert their influence in the country. Qatar was particularly active in strengthening its positions, having managed to close the negotiation process between the United States and the Taliban before they came to power. It is also important that Saudi Arabia and the UAE claimed the role of a diplomatic mediator, but the approval of Qatar's candidacy led to the strengthening of the positions of the Qatari-Turkish alliance. Turkey provided impressive humanitarian assistance to the country, and also jointly with Qatar defended the right to restore an important infrastructure facility – the Kabul airport, which was also claimed by the UAE. Pakistan, which is the military wing of the Taliban, continues to have an important influence on the internal political situation in Afghanistan. The formation of a new Afghan government in the fall of 2021 determined the balance of power in the country in favor of Qatar and Pakistan, which support the political and power bloc, respectively. Saudi Arabia has failed to find the necessary levers of influence on the new Afghan government, but does not lose hope of using Pakistan as its proxy for pressure on the Taliban, in order to prevent the strengthening of the Iranian positions in Afghanistan. Thus, Afghanistan continues to be an arena of struggle for regional influence