Rise of the War Machines: Charting the Evolution of Military Technologies from the Neolithic to the Industrial Revolution

What have been the causes and consequences of technological evolution in world history? In particular, what propels innovation and diffusion of military technologies, details of which are comparatively well preserved and which are often seen as drivers of broad socio-cultural processes? Here we analyze the evolution of key military technologies in a sample of pre-industrial societies world-wide covering almost 10,000 years of history using Seshat: Global History Databank. We empirically test previously speculative theories that proposed world population size, connectivity between geographical areas of innovation and adoption, and critical enabling technological advances, such as iron metallurgy and horse riding, as central drivers of military technological evolution. We find that all of these factors are strong predictors of change in military technology, whereas state-level factors such as polity population, territorial size, or governance sophistication play no major role. We discuss how our approach can be extended to explore technological change more generally, and how our results carry important ramifications for understanding major drivers of evolution of social complexity. © 2021 Turchin et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.This work was supported by: a John Templeton Foundation grant to the Evolution Institute, entitled "Axial-Age Religions and the Z-Curve of Human Egalitarianism" (HW, PF, PT); a Tricoastal Foundation grant to the Evolution Institute, entitled "The Deep Roots of the Modern World: The Cultural Evolution of Economic Growth and Political Stability" (PT); an Economic and Social Research Council Large Grant to the University of Oxford, entitled "Ritual, Community, and Conflict" (REF RES-060-25-0085) (HW); a grant from the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 644055 [ALIGNED, www.aligned-project.eu]) (HW, PF); a European Research Council Advanced Grant to the University of Oxford, entitled (Ritual Modes: Divergent modes of ritual, social cohesion, prosociality, and conflict" (HW, PF); a grant from the Institute of Economics and Peace to develop a Historical Peace Index (HW, PF, PT, DH); and the program (Complexity Science,) which is supported by the Austrian Research Promotion Agency FFG under grant № 873927 (PT)

Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization

Do human societies from around the world exhibit similarities in the way that they are structured, and show commonalities in the ways that they have evolved? These are long-standing questions that have proven difficult to answer. To test between competing hypotheses, we constructed a massive repository of historical and archaeological information known as "Seshat: Global History Databank." We systematically coded data on 414 societies from 30 regions around the world spanning the last 10,000 years. We were able to capture information on 51 variables reflecting nine characteristics of human societies, such as social scale, economy, features of governance, and information systems. Our analyses revealed that these different characteristics show strong relationships with each other and that a single principal component captures around three-quarters of the observed variation. Furthermore, we found that different characteristics of social complexity are highly predictable across different world regions. These results suggest that key aspects of social organization are functionally related and do indeed coevolve in predictable ways. Our findings highlight the power of the sciences and humanities working together to rigorously test hypotheses about general rules that may have shaped human history

Big Gods and big science: further reflections on theory, data, and analysis

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The La Marca model revisited: Structuralist goodwin cycles with evolutionary supply side and balance of payments constraints

This research is aimed at investigating the causes of volatility that affect middle‐income countries by studying the La Marca model. Drawing from the open‐economy Goodwin tradition, this model demonstrates that economic activity, income distribution and accumulation of foreign assets dynamically interact, resulting in a pattern of dampened cycles. The study consists in analyzing the characteristics of the model by initially imposing: (I) a constant real exchange rate; (II) a constant net external asset to capital ratio, which is in line with the balance of payments dominance theory and (III) a fixed income distribution. We then (IV) expand the original model by adding an evolutionary supply‐side in which productivity is at the center of the economic dynamic through international technology transfer and the Kaldor‐Verdoorn effect. The results show that (1) the model always converges. (2) The restrictions (I) and (II) remove the cyclical component of the model, which highlights a central difference between La Marca and the original Goodwin model. (3) Fixed income distribution leads to a monotonic trajectory that reduces oscillations. (4) The inclusion of productivity dynamics generates new sources of volatility in the relationship between productivity, capacity utilization and net external assets and is in line with the structuralist argument of structural fragility

Clusters of alcohol abstainers and drinkers incorporating motives against drinking: a random survey of 18 to 34 year olds in four cities in four different continents

Objective: The aim of this analysis was to identify alcohol consumption clusters for adolescents and early adults according to attitudes to drinking, motivations against drinking and perceptions associated with alcohol. Method: Interviews were undertaken with people aged 18–34 years old living in four cities in different regions of the world. Multistage random sampling was consistent across the four cities (Ilorin (Nigeria), Wuhan (China), Montevideo (Uruguay) and Moscow (Russia)). The questionnaire was forward and back translated into relevant languages and face-to-face interviewing undertaken. The data were weighted to the population of each city. In total 6235 structured interviews were undertaken (1391 in Ilorin, 1600 in Montevideo, 1604 in Moscow and 1640 in Wuhan). Questions regarding motivation against alcohol consumption (14 items), assessing perceptions (3 items) and attitudes to drinking in certain situations (8 items) were asked of all respondents including abstainers. Factor analysis was initially undertaken to identify highly related correlated variables. Results: Cluster analysis provided a variety of clusters (Ilorin (3 clusters), Montevideo (5), Moscow (4) and Wuhan (4)). At least one cluster in each city was dominated by abstainers and another by heavy episodic drinkers. Variations by city and alcohol consumption patterns existed in regards to variables included. Conclusion: This analysis detailed the city specific motivations against drinking alcohol, and the attitudes towards alcohol consumption. Differences highlight the influence of country/city specific culture, customs, laws, societal norms and traditions