The relationship between derivative instruments and systematic risk: A study on banks trading on BIST

This study is aimed to analyze the relationship between the use of derivative financial instruments for speculative and hedging purposes and systematic risk. The effect of the use of derivatives by seven banks trading on Borsa Istanbul during the period of June 2007 – December 2017 on systematic risk was studied using panel cointegration, causality and regression analyses. Banking sector was examined within the scope of the study, since the level of use of derivatives is high in this sector. It was identified in the study that there is a long-run cointegration relationship between the use of derivatives and systematic risk. It was also identified that there is a significant and negative relationship between the use of derivatives for speculative purposes and systematic risk. Furthermore, it was determined that there is a one-way causality relationship from the use of derivatives for speculative purposes towards systematic risk. However, there was no relationship identified between the use of derivatives for hedging purposes and systematic risk. On the other hand, significant and negative relationship was identified between swap transactions that banks use for speculative purposes and systematic risk, while there was no significant relationship determined between forward and option contracts and systematic risk

Cointegration Relations between Turkish and International Equity Markets and Portfolio Choices

In this study monthly equity index values of twenty two emerging and twelve developed markets are used for the determination of cointegration relations developed by Johansen. The results of cointegration analysis show that Turkish stock market is cointegrated with seven developed and five emerging markets. After determining the integrated equity markets, different international portfolio scenarios are created by using Markowitz mean-variance model. These findings suggest that Turkish portfolio managers are able to monitor their asset allocations and minimize risks if they obtain a better understanding of how emerging and developed equity markets are integratedCointegration, Emerging Markets, Developed Markets, Portfolio, ISE.

Volatility Spillover Effect from Volatility Implied Index to Emerging Markets

This study has investigated the effect of VIX, created as an implied volatility in the US, on 15 emerging stock markets with the application of GJR-GARCH model. According to the results obtained, the emerging stock markets have leverage effect in conditional variance and emerging bad news concludes that volatility further increases. The results of the analysis show that implied volatility index affect Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Chili, Peru, Hungary, Poland, Turkey, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia stock markets through volatility increasesImplied Volatility, Spillover Effect, GJR-GARCH Model,Emerging Markets

Oil Prices and Global Stock Markets: A Time-Varying Causality-In-Mean and Causality-in-Variance Analysis

This study examines the Granger-causal relationships between oil price movements and global stock returns by using time-varying Granger-causality tests in mean and in variance. We use the daily returns from Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) G7 and the MSCI Emerging Stock Market Indexes to distinguish between the effects of daily oil price movements on G7 countries' and emerging market countries' stock markets. We further divide the emerging markets into two groups as oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. For the oil market, we use both the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent oil daily price movements. While the Granger-causality-in-mean tests indicate a causal link from WTI oil prices and G7 countries' stock returns to MSCI emerging countries' stock returns, the Granger-causality-in-variance tests suggest no causal link from global oil market prices to stock market returns. Nonetheless, a causal link from the G7 countries' stock returns to the MSCI emerging countries' stock returns is detected. In addition, G7 countries' stock market volatility is found to Granger-cause Brent oil price volatility. The time-varying Granger-causality-in-mean and Granger-causality-in-variance tests present new and further insights. A causal relationship between oil price changes and G7 countries' stock returns is found for some periods during and after the global financial crisis. Time-varying Granger-causality-in-variance test results indicate evidence of causal linkages among oil prices and global stock market returns that are specific only to certain time periods. We also find that there might be a difference between the movements in Brent and WTI oil prices with respect to their Granger-causal effects on oil-importing emerging markets' stock returnsespecially after the global financial crisis. Our results provide further evidence that the effects of oil price movements on stock returns might be different depending on the volatility in the stock markets

Testing causal relation among central and eastern European equity markets: evidence from asymmetric causality test

The aim of this study is to analyse the presence of a causal link among financial markets of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries by adopting an asymmetric causality test. The standard causality test results suggest a causal relation running from the Czech Republic to Poland. Also, the Poland stock market is found to be a Granger cause of Turkey stock markets. Asymmetric causality test results indicate only a causal link going from the Czech Republic to Hungary and Poland. In addition, the presence of financial integration between Germany and CEE equity markets cannot be determined

Döviz Kurları ile BİST Turizm Endeksi Getirileri Arasındaki Volatilite Yayılım Etkisinin Belirlenmesi

Bu araştırmanın amacı döviz kurları ile BİST Turizm Endeksi (XTRZM) getirileri arasındaki volatilite yayılım etkisinin ekonometrik yöntemlerle belirlenmesidir. Bu bağlamda, konvertibilitesi yüksek para birimleri olan USD, EUR, JPY ve GBP ve Türkiye’ye yüksek miktarda turist gönderen bir ülke olan Rusya’nın para birimi olan RUB ile BİST XTRZM getirileri arasındaki volatilite yayılımı çok değişkenli GARCH modellerinden olan Diagonal VECH-GARCH yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, XTRZM ve Döviz kurlarında volatilitenin sürekli etkilere sahip olduğunu ve volatilite kümelenmelerinin oluştuğunu göstermektedir. Uygulanan Diagonal VECH-GARCH modeli sonuçlarına göre, USD/TRY, EUR/TRY, GBP/TRY ve RUB/TRY kurları ile XTRZM Endeksi getirileri arasında istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir volatilite yayılımı olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, JPY/TRY ile XTRZM Endeksi getirileri arasında ise volatilite yayılımına ilişkin istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir sonuca ulaşılamamıştır. Çalışma sonucunda elde edilen bulgular, özellikle döviz kurlarındaki oynaklığın artığı dönemlerde XTRZM endeksi getirilerinde de volatilitenin yükseldiğine işaret etmektedir

THE DETERMINATION OF EFFICIENCY OF THE RETAIL-SECTOR COMPANIES WHOSE SHARES ARE TRADED IN BORSA ISTANBUL WITH DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS

International Congress of Management Economy And Policy, 26-27 Kasım 2016, İstanbulPerakende ticaret sektörü firmaları sürekli bir şekilde değişen ve artan insan ihtiyaçları doğrultusunda sadece üreticilerin ürünlerini nihai tüketicilere ulaştıran firmalar olma konumundan çıkmışlardır. Günümüz perakende ticaret sektörü firmaları, tüketicilere fiyat, kalite ve satış sonrası hizmetler gibi unsurlarda fark yaratabilmek için yoğun bir rekabet ortamında faaliyet göstermektedirler. Birbirinden çok farklı nitelikteki üreticilerin ürün ve hizmetlerini, farklı ihtiyaç ve beklentileri olan tüketicilere sunma görevini yerine getiren bu firmaların faaliyetlerinde mümkün olabildiğince etkin olması gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada Borsa İstanbul’da pay senetleri işlem gören perakende ticaret sektörü firmalarının etkinlik analizinin Veri Zarflama Analizi (VZA) ile belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. 2012-2014 dönemini kapsayan çalışmada firmaların etkinliklerinin belirlenmesi amacıyla aktif toplamı (AT), finansal kaldıraç (FK) ve satışların maliyeti (SM) girdi değişkenleri, satış geliri (SG) ve aktif karlılığı (AK) çıktı değişkenleri olarak belirlenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda üç girdi ve iki çıktı ile kurulan VZA modeli ile analiz kapsamına alınan 14 firmanın etkinlik değerleri hesaplanmıştır.Considering the constantly changing and increasing human needs, the traditional function of retail sector companies that are merely delivering the products of the producers to the final consumers has been changed.Today's retail-sector firms operate in an intense competitive environment in order to make a difference in terms of prices, quality and after-sales services. It is essential that these companies, which fulfill the duty of presenting products and services of different producers to consumers with different needs and expectations, should be as effective as possible. In this study, the aimed to determine the efficiency of the retail-sector companies whose shares are traded in Borsa Istanbul with Data Envelopment Analysis. In order to determine the efficiencies of the firms covering the period 2012-2014, the total assets, financial leverage and cost of sales are determined as input variables and sales revenue and return on assets are determined as output variables. As a result of the study, the efficiency values of the 14 firms included in the analysis were calculated by using the Data Envelopment Analysis model formed by three inputs and two outputs

Volatility spillover between Bitcoin and financial stress index

PURPOSE: This paper aims to test the volatility models for Bitcoin (BTC) and the financial stress index (FSI) and examine the volatility spillover among them. This aim was reached by obtaining weekly data from the 7th of January 2011 and the 24th of December 2021.METHODOLOGY: First, volatility modelling for the series is provided, and GARCH (1,1) for the BTC series and IGARC (1,2) for the FSI series are determined as the most appropriate volatility models. Then, residual volatility series are created for each variable over the IGARCH (1,2) and GARCH (1,1) models for the volatility spread between the series. The volatility spread between the series is examined with the diagonal VECH GARCH method. It is concluded that there is a positive volatility spillover effect from the FSI variable to the BTC variable. Then, impulse-response analysis is performed on the volatility residual series created for each variable. The empirical findings from impulse response analysis support a risk transfer between BTC and FSI series.RESULTS AND FINDINGS: Changes in the BTC return series and FSI series are caused mainly by themselves, and the series are most affected by their shocks. By comparing the variance decomposition of the volatility series with the analysis results, it can be said that the changes in the volatility series are caused mainly by each other.peer-reviewe

Nonlinearity and nonstationarity in international art market prices: evidence from Markov-switching ADF unit root tests

This study investigates the presence (or lack thereof) of nonlinear dynamics and nonstationarity in international art market prices using quarterly data for the period 1990-2011. We first test whether art market price indices follow stochastic trends or whether they are stationary by means of linear unit root tests. Next, we estimate the Markov regime-switching ADF model and test whether the linear or the nonlinear regime-switching model provides a better characterization of the global art market price series. We find that all art market price indices (except for Drawings) exhibit nonlinearity. To our knowledge, our study is the first one in the literature to suggest that a nonlinear (Markov regime-switching) model provides a better characterization of the behavior of price dynamics in international art markets. In particular, our findings indicate that the market for the overall global art market, paintings, old masters, sculptures, photographs, prints, and contemporary art might indeed be stationary while exhibiting nonlinear regime-switching properties. On the other hand, the market for drawings and the Nineteenth century art are found to be nonstationary. Overall, despite the common ground of a regime-switching framework, we still find that the sub-segments of the art market have their own inner regime switching dynamics and hence they can evolve differently overtim

Downside Business Confidence Spillovers in Europe: Evidence from Causality-in-Risk Tests

This paper employs Hong et al.’s (2009) extreme risk spillovers test to investigate the bilateral business confidence spillovers between Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, and Germany. After controlling for domestic economic developments in each country and common international factors, downside risk spillovers are detected as a causal feedback between Spain and Portugal and unilaterally from Spain to Italy. Extremely low business sentiments in France, Germany, and Greece are mostly due to the common adverse economic environment and to each country’s own domestic economic developments