Models and analyses to understand threats to polio eradication

Abstract To achieve complete polio eradication, the live oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) currently used must be phased out after the end of wild poliovirus transmission. However, poorly understood threats may arise when OPV use is stopped. To counter these threats, better models than those currently available are needed. Two articles recently published in BMC Medicine address these issues. Mercer et al. (BMC Med 15:180, 2017) developed a statistical model analysis of polio case data and characteristics of cases occurring in several districts in Pakistan to inform resource allocation decisions. Nevertheless, despite having the potential to accelerate the elimination of polio cases, their analyses are unlikely to advance our understanding OPV cessation threats. McCarthy et al. (BMC Med 15:175, 2017) explored one such threat, namely the emergence and transmission of serotype 2 circulating vaccine derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) after OPV2 cessation, and found that the risk of persistent spread of cVDPV2 to new areas increases rapidly 1–5 years after OPV2 cessation. Thus, recently developed models and analysis methods have the potential to guide the required steps to surpass these threats. ‘Big data’ scientists could help with this; however, datasets covering all eradication efforts should be made readily available. Please see related articles: https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-017-0937-y and https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-017-0941-2 .https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/140392/1/12916_2017_Article_991.pd

New Data and Tools for Integrating Discrete and Continuous Population Modeling Strategies

Realistic population models have interactions between individuals. Such interactions cause populations to behave as systems with nonlinear dynamics. Much population data analysis is done using linear models assuming no interactions between individuals. Such analyses miss strong influences on population behavior and can lead to serious errors—especially for infectious diseases. To promote more effective population system analyses, we present a flexible and intuitive modeling framework for infection transmission systems. This framework will help population scientists gain insight into population dynamics, develop theory about population processes, better analyze and interpret population data, design more powerful and informative studies, and better inform policy decisions. Our framework uses a hierarchy of infection transmission system models. Four levels are presented here: deterministic compartmental models using ordinary differential equations (DE); stochastic compartmental (SC) models that relax assumptions about population size and include stochastic effects; individual event history models (IEH) that relax the SC compartmental structure assumptions by allowing each individual to be unique. IEH models also track each individual's history, and thus, allow the simulation of field studies. Finally, dynamic network (DNW) models relax the assumption of the previous models that contacts between individuals are instantaneous events that do not affect subsequent contacts. Eventually it should be possible to transit between these model forms at the click of a mouse. An example is presented dealing with Cryptosporidium . It illustrates how transiting model forms helps assess water contamination effects, evaluate control options, and design studies of infection transmission systems using nucleotide sequences of infectious agents.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75616/1/j.1749-6632.2001.tb02756.x.pd

The dynamics of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureusexposure in a hospital model and the potential for environmental intervention

BACKGROUND: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a major cause of healthcare-associated infections. An important control strategy is hand hygiene; however, non-compliance has been a major problem in healthcare settings. Furthermore, modeling studies have suggested that the law of diminishing return applies to hand hygiene. Other additional control strategies such as environmental cleaning may be warranted, given that MRSA-positive individuals constantly shed contaminated desquamated skin particles to the environment. METHODS: We constructed and analyzed a deterministic environmental compartmental model of MRSA fate, transport, and exposure between two hypothetical hospital rooms: one with a colonized patient, shedding MRSA; another with an uncolonized patient, susceptible to exposure. Healthcare workers (HCWs), acting solely as vectors, spread MRSA from one patient room to the other. RESULTS: Although porous surfaces became highly contaminated, their low transfer efficiency limited the exposure dose to HCWs and the uncolonized patient. Conversely, the high transfer efficiency of nonporous surfaces allows greater MRSA transfer when touched. In the colonized patient’s room, HCW exposure occurred more predominantly through the indirect (patient to surfaces to HCW) mode compared to the direct (patient to HCW) mode. In contrast, in the uncolonized patient’s room, patient exposure was more predominant in the direct (HCW to patient) mode compared to the indirect (HCW to surfaces to patient) mode. Surface wiping decreased MRSA exposure to the uncolonized patient more than daily surface decontamination. This was because wiping allowed higher cleaning frequency and cleaned more total surface area per day. CONCLUSIONS: Environmental cleaning should be considered as an integral component of MRSA infection control in hospitals. Given the previously under-appreciated role of surface contamination in MRSA transmission, this intervention mode can contribute to an effective multiple barrier approach in concert with hand hygiene

The dynamics of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus exposure in a hospital model and the potential for environmental intervention

Abstract Background Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a major cause of healthcare-associated infections. An important control strategy is hand hygiene; however, non-compliance has been a major problem in healthcare settings. Furthermore, modeling studies have suggested that the law of diminishing return applies to hand hygiene. Other additional control strategies such as environmental cleaning may be warranted, given that MRSA-positive individuals constantly shed contaminated desquamated skin particles to the environment. Methods We constructed and analyzed a deterministic environmental compartmental model of MRSA fate, transport, and exposure between two hypothetical hospital rooms: one with a colonized patient, shedding MRSA; another with an uncolonized patient, susceptible to exposure. Healthcare workers (HCWs), acting solely as vectors, spread MRSA from one patient room to the other. Results Although porous surfaces became highly contaminated, their low transfer efficiency limited the exposure dose to HCWs and the uncolonized patient. Conversely, the high transfer efficiency of nonporous surfaces allows greater MRSA transfer when touched. In the colonized patient’s room, HCW exposure occurred more predominantly through the indirect (patient to surfaces to HCW) mode compared to the direct (patient to HCW) mode. In contrast, in the uncolonized patient’s room, patient exposure was more predominant in the direct (HCW to patient) mode compared to the indirect (HCW to surfaces to patient) mode. Surface wiping decreased MRSA exposure to the uncolonized patient more than daily surface decontamination. This was because wiping allowed higher cleaning frequency and cleaned more total surface area per day. Conclusions Environmental cleaning should be considered as an integral component of MRSA infection control in hospitals. Given the previously under-appreciated role of surface contamination in MRSA transmission, this intervention mode can contribute to an effective multiple barrier approach in concert with hand hygiene.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/112924/1/12879_2013_Article_2936.pd

The Effect of Ongoing Exposure Dynamics in Dose Response Relationships

Characterizing infectivity as a function of pathogen dose is integral to microbial risk assessment. Dose-response experiments usually administer doses to subjects at one time. Phenomenological models of the resulting data, such as the exponential and the Beta-Poisson models, ignore dose timing and assume independent risks from each pathogen. Real world exposure to pathogens, however, is a sequence of discrete events where concurrent or prior pathogen arrival affects the capacity of immune effectors to engage and kill newly arriving pathogens. We model immune effector and pathogen interactions during the period before infection becomes established in order to capture the dynamics generating dose timing effects. Model analysis reveals an inverse relationship between the time over which exposures accumulate and the risk of infection. Data from one time dose experiments will thus overestimate per pathogen infection risks of real world exposures. For instance, fitting our model to one time dosing data reveals a risk of 0.66 from 313 Cryptosporidium parvum pathogens. When the temporal exposure window is increased 100-fold using the same parameters fitted by our model to the one time dose data, the risk of infection is reduced to 0.09. Confirmation of this risk prediction requires data from experiments administering doses with different timings. Our model demonstrates that dose timing could markedly alter the risks generated by airborne versus fomite transmitted pathogens

Choosing an appropriate bacterial typing technique for epidemiologic studies

A wide variety of bacterial typing systems are currently in use that vary greatly with respect to the effort required, cost, reliability and ability to discriminate between bacterial strains. No one technique is optimal for all forms of investigation. We discuss the desired level of discrimination and need for a biologic basis for grouping strains of apparently different types when using bacterial typing techniques for different epidemiologic applications: 1) confirming epidemiologic linkage in outbreak investigations, 2) generating hypotheses about epidemiologic relationships between bacterial strains in the absence of epidemiologic information, and 3) describing the distributions of bacterial types and identifying determinants of those distributions. Inferences made from molecular epidemiologic studies of bacteria depend upon both the typing technique selected and the study design used; thus, choice of typing technique is pivotal for increasing our understanding of the pathogenesis and transmission, and eventual disease prevention

Identification of a Small Molecule Anti-biofilm Agent Against Salmonella enterica

Biofilm formation is a common strategy utilized by bacterial pathogens to establish persistence in a host niche. Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi, the etiological agent of Typhoid fever, relies on biofilm formation in the gallbladder to chronically colonize asymptomatic carriers, allowing for transmission to uninfected individuals. S. enterica serovar Typhimurium utilizes biofilms to achieve persistence in human and animal hosts, an issue of both clinical and agricultural importance. Here, we identify a compound that selectively inhibits biofilm formation in both S. Typhi and S. Typhimurium serovars at early stages of biofilm development with an EC50 of 21.0 and 7.4 μM, respectively. We find that this compound, T315, also reduces biofilm formation in Acinetobacter baumannii, a nosocomial and opportunistic pathogen with rising antibiotic resistance. T315 treatment in conjunction with sub-MIC dosing of ciprofloxacin further reduces S. enterica biofilm formation, demonstrating the potential of such combination therapies for therapeutic development. Through synthesis of two biotin-labeled T315 probes and subsequent pull-down and proteomics analysis, we identified a T315 binding target: WrbA, a flavin mononucleotide-dependent NADH:quinone oxidoreductase. Using a S. Typhimurium strain lacking WrbA we demonstrate that this factor contributes to endogenous S. enterica biofilm formation processes and is required for full T315 anti-biofilm activity. We suggest WrbA as a promising target for further development of anti-biofilm agents in Salmonella, with potential for use against additional bacterial pathogens. The development of anti-biofilm therapeutics will be essential to combat chronic carriage of Typhoid fever and thus accomplish a meaningful reduction of global disease burden

Optimized Trigger for Ultra-High-Energy Cosmic-Ray and Neutrino Observations with the Low Frequency Radio Array

When an ultra-high energy neutrino or cosmic ray strikes the Lunar surface a radio-frequency pulse is emitted. We plan to use the LOFAR radio telescope to detect these pulses. In this work we propose an efficient trigger implementation for LOFAR optimized for the observation of short radio pulses.Comment: Submitted to Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section

Simple Epidemiological Dynamics Explain Phylogenetic Clustering of HIV from Patients with Recent Infection

Phylogenies of highly genetically variable viruses such as HIV-1 are potentially informative of epidemiological dynamics. Several studies have demonstrated the presence of clusters of highly related HIV-1 sequences, particularly among recently HIV-infected individuals, which have been used to argue for a high transmission rate during acute infection. Using a large set of HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences collected from men who have sex with men, we demonstrate that virus from recent infections tend to be phylogenetically clustered at a greater rate than virus from patients with chronic infection (‘excess clustering’) and also tend to cluster with other recent HIV infections rather than chronic, established infections (‘excess co-clustering’), consistent with previous reports. To determine the role that a higher infectivity during acute infection may play in excess clustering and co-clustering, we developed a simple model of HIV infection that incorporates an early period of intensified transmission, and explicitly considers the dynamics of phylogenetic clusters alongside the dynamics of acute and chronic infected cases. We explored the potential for clustering statistics to be used for inference of acute stage transmission rates and found that no single statistic explains very much variance in parameters controlling acute stage transmission rates. We demonstrate that high transmission rates during the acute stage is not the main cause of excess clustering of virus from patients with early/acute infection compared to chronic infection, which may simply reflect the shorter time since transmission in acute infection. Higher transmission during acute infection can result in excess co-clustering of sequences, while the extent of clustering observed is most sensitive to the fraction of infections sampled

Endangered right whales enhance primary productivity in the bay of fundy

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Marine mammals have recently been documented as important facilitators of rapid and efficient nutrient recycling in coastal and offshore waters. Whales enhance phytoplankton nutrition by releasing fecal plumes near the surface after feeding and by migrating from highly productive, high-latitude feeding areas to low-latitude nutrient-poor calving areas. In this study, we measured NH4 + and PO4 3- release rates from the feces of North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis), a highly endangered baleen whale. Samples for this species were primarily collected by locating aggregations of whales in surface- Active groups (SAGs), which typically consist of a central female surrounded by males competing for sexual activity. When freshly collected feces were incubated in seawater, high initial rates of N release were generally observed, which decreased to near zero within 24 hours of sampling, a pattern that is consistent with the active role of gut microflora on fecal particles. We estimate that at least 10% of particulate N in whale feces becomes available as NH4 + within 24 hours of defecation. Phosphorous was also abundant in fecal samples: Initial release rates of PO4 3- were higher than for NH4 +, yielding low N/P nutrient ratios over the course of our experiments. The rate of PO4 3- release was thus more than sufficient to preclude the possibility that nitrogenous nutrients supplied by whales would lead to phytoplankton production limited by P availability. Phytoplankton growth experiments indicated that NH4 + released from whale feces enhance productivity, as would be expected, with no evidence that fecal metabolites suppress growth. Although North Atlantic right whales are currently rare (approximately 450 individuals), they once numbered about 14,000 and likely played a substantial role in recycling nutrients in areas where they gathered to feed and mate. Even though the NH4 + released from fresh whale fecal material is a small fraction of total whale fecal nitrogen, and recognizing the fact that the additional nitrogen released in whale urine would be difficult to measure in a field study, the results of this study support the idea that the distinctive isotopic signature of the released NH4 + could be used to provide a conservative estimate of the contribution of the whale pump to primary productivity in coastal regions where whales congregate