Identification of Economic Shocks by Inequality Constraints in Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression

Theories often make predictions about the signs of the effects of economic shocks on observable variables, thus implying inequality constraints on the parameters of a structural vector autoregression (SVAR). We introduce a new Bayesian procedure to evaluate the probabilities of such constraints, and, hence, to validate the theoretically implied economic shocks. We first estimate a SVAR, where the shocks are identified by statistical properties of the data, and subsequently label these statistically identified shocks by the Bayes factors calculated from their probabilities of satisfying given inequality constraints. In contrast to the related sign restriction approach that also makes use of theoretically implied inequality constraints, no restrictions are imposed. Hence, it is possible that only a subset or none of the theoretically implied shocks can be labelled. In the latter case, we conclude that the data do not lend support to the theory implying the signs of the effects in question. We illustrate the method by empirical applications to the crude oil market, and U.S. monetary policy.Peer reviewe

Innovació a l'ensenyament de la Geografia

"Los profesores de Geografía, la innovación de la enseñanza y su profesionalización: el lugar de los materiales curriculares", la tesi doctoral de Viviana Zenobi, llegida al Departament de Didàctica de la Llengua i la Literatura, i de les Ciències Socials de la UAB, pretén conèixer quin és el paper de determinats materials que s'utilitzen en l'ensenyament de la Geografia en l'elaboració de propostes innovadores dins dels currículums d'aquesta matèria. A més, també vol ajudar als organismes de gestió en la presa de decisions sobre la producció d'aquests materials millorant així la formació dels professors i incentivant aquesta innovació."Los profesores de Geografía, la innovación de la Enseñanza y su profesionalización: El lugar de los materiales curriculares", la tesis doctoral de Viviana Zenobi, leída en el Departamento de Didáctica de la Lengua y la Literatura, y de las Ciencias Sociales de la UAB, pretende conocer cuál es el papel de determinados materiales que se utilizan en la enseñanza de la Geografía en la elaboración de propuestas innovadoras dentro de los currículos de esta materia. Además, también quiere ayudar a los organismos de gestión en la toma de decisiones sobre la producción de estos materiales mejorando así la formación de los profesores e incentivando esta innovación."Los profesores de Geografía, la innovación de la Enseñanza y su profesionalización: El lugar de los materiales curriculares", Viviana Zenobi's thesis, read at the Department of Language and Literature education, and Social Sciences education at the UAB, pretends a better understanding of the role of certain teaching materials used in geography in the development of innovative curricula in this area. In addition, this thesis also attempts to help management agencies in the decision making on the production of these materials, improving teacher's training and encouraging this innovation

Core-Core Dynamics in Spin Vortex Pairs

We investigate magnetic nano-pillars, in which two thin ferromagnetic nanoparticles are separated by a nanometer thin nonmagnetic spacer and can be set into stable spin vortex-pair configurations. The 16 ground states of the vortex-pair system are characterized by parallel or antiparallel chirality and parallel or antiparallel core-core alignment. We detect and differentiate these individual vortex-pair states experimentally and analyze their dynamics analytically and numerically. Of particular interest is the limit of strong core-core coupling, which we find can dominate the spin dynamics in the system. We observe that the 0.2 GHz gyrational resonance modes of the individual vortices are replaced with 2-6 GHz range collective rotational and vibrational core-core resonances in the configurations where the cores form a bound pair. These results demonstrate new opportunities in producing and manipulating spin states on the nanoscale and may prove useful for new types of ultra-dense storage devices where the information is stored as multiple vortex-core configurations