Agent-Based Markov Modeling for Improved COVID-19 Mitigation Policies

The year 2020 saw the covid-19 virus lead to one of the worst global pandemics in history. As a result, governments around the world have been faced with the challenge of protecting public health while keeping the economy running to the greatest extent possible. Epidemiological models provide insight into the spread of these types of diseases and predict the e_ects of possible intervention policies. However, to date, even the most data-driven intervention policies rely on heuristics. In this paper, we study how reinforcement learning (RL) and Bayesian inference can be used to optimize mitigation policies that minimize economic impact without overwhelming hospital capacity. Our main contributions are (1) a novel agent-based pandemic simulator which, unlike traditional models, is able to model _ne-grained interactions among people at speci_c locations in a community; (2) an RL- based methodology for optimizing _ne-grained mitigation policies within this simulator; and (3) a Hidden Markov Model for predicting infected individuals based on partial observations regarding test results, presence of symptoms, and past physical contacts

Detecting Advanced Network Threats Using a Similarity Search

In this paper, we propose a novel approach for the detection of advanced network threats. We combine knowledge-based detections with similarity search techniques commonly utilized for automated image annotation. This unique combination could provide effective detection of common network anomalies together with their unknown variants. In addition, it offers a similar approach to network data analysis as a security analyst does. Our research is focused on understanding the similarity of anomalies in network traffic and their representation within complex behaviour patterns. This will lead to a proposal of a system for the realtime analysis of network data based on similarity. This goal should be achieved within a period of three years as a part of a PhD thesis

Modifier Genes as Therapeutics: The Nuclear Hormone Receptor Rev Erb Alpha (Nr1d1) Rescues Nr2e3 Associated Retinal Disease

Nuclear hormone receptors play a major role in many important biological processes. Most nuclear hormone receptors are ubiquitously expressed and regulate processes such as metabolism, circadian function, and development. They function in these processes to maintain homeostasis through modulation of transcriptional gene networks. In this study we evaluate the effectiveness of a nuclear hormone receptor gene to modulate retinal degeneration and restore the integrity of the retina. Currently, there are no effective treatment options for retinal degenerative diseases leading to progressive and irreversible blindness. In this study we demonstrate that the nuclear hormone receptor gene Nr1d1 (Rev-Erba) rescues Nr2e3- associated retinal degeneration in the rd7 mouse, which lacks a functional Nr2e3 gene. Mutations in human NR2E3 are associated with several retinal degenerations including enhanced S cone syndrome and retinitis pigmentosa. The rd7 mouse, lacking Nr2e3, exhibits an increase in S cones and slow, progressive retinal degeneration. A traditional genetic mapping approach previously identified candidate modifier loci. Here, we demonstrate that in vivo delivery of the candidate modifier gene, Nr1d1 rescues Nr2e3 associated retinal degeneration. We observed clinical, histological, functional, and molecular restoration of the rd7 retina. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mechanism of rescue at the molecular and functional level is through the re-regulation of key genes within the Nr2e3-directed transcriptional network. Together, these findings reveal the potency of nuclear receptors as modulators of disease and specifically of NR1D1 as a novel therapeutic for retinal degenerations

Fault Localization in Large-Scale Network Policy Deployment

The recent advances in network management automation and Software-Defined Networking (SDN) are easing network policy management tasks. At the same time, these new technologies create a new mode of failure in the management cycle itself. Network policies are presented in an abstract model at a centralized controller and deployed as low-level rules across network devices. Thus, any software and hardware element in that cycle can be a potential cause of underlying network problems. In this paper, we present and solve a network policy fault localization problem that arises in operating policy management frameworks for a production network. We formulate our problem via risk modeling and propose a greedy algorithm that quickly localizes faulty policy objects in the network policy. We then design and develop SCOUT---a fully-automated system that produces faulty policy objects and further pinpoints physical-level failures which made the objects faulty. Evaluation results using a real testbed and extensive simulations demonstrate that SCOUT detects faulty objects with small false positives and false negatives.Comment: 10 pages, 10 figures, IEEE format, Conference, SDN, Network Polic

Agent-Based Markov Modeling for Improved COVID-19 Mitigation Policies

You are currently viewing a research paper that was included in the August 2021 Good Systems Network Digest.Office of the VP for Researc

A simulated annealing based genetic local search algorithm for multi-objective multicast routing problems

This paper presents a new hybrid evolutionary algorithm to solve multi-objective multicast routing problems in telecommunication networks. The algorithm combines simulated annealing based strategies and a genetic local search, aiming at a more flexible and effective exploration and exploitation in the search space of the complex problem to find more non-dominated solutions in the Pareto Front. Due to the complex structure of the multicast tree, crossover and mutation operators have been specifically devised concerning the features and constraints in the problem. A new adaptive mutation probability based on simulated annealing is proposed in the hybrid algorithm to adaptively adjust the mutation rate according to the fitness of the new solution against the average quality of the current population during the evolution procedure. Two simulated annealing based search direction tuning strategies are applied to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the hybrid evolutionary algorithm. Simulations have been carried out on some benchmark multi-objective multicast routing instances and a large amount of random networks with five real world objectives including cost, delay, link utilisations, average delay and delay variation in telecommunication networks. Experimental results demonstrate that both the simulated annealing based strategies and the genetic local search within the proposed multi-objective algorithm, compared with other multi-objective evolutionary algorithms, can efficiently identify high quality non-dominated solution set for multi-objective multicast routing problems and outperform other conventional multi-objective evolutionary algorithms in the literature