Allometric scaling of retrogressive thaw slumps

In the warming Arctic, retrogressive thaw slumping (RTS) has emerged as the primary thermokarst modifier of ice-rich permafrost slopes, raising urgency to investigate the distribution and intensification of disturbances and the cascade of effects. Tracking RTS is challenging due to the constraints of remote sensing products and a narrow understanding of complex, thaw-driven landforms; however, high-resolution elevation models provide new insights into geomorphic change. Structural traits, such as RTS depth of thaw or volume, can be obtained through allometric scaling. To address fundamental knowledge gaps related to area–volume scaling of RTS, a suitable surface interpolation technique was first needed to model pre-disturbance topography upon which volume estimates could be based. Among eight methods with 32 parameterizations, natural neighbour surface interpolation achieved the best precision in reconstructing pre-disturbed slope topography (90th percentile root mean square difference ±1.0 m). An inverse association between RTS volume and relative volumetric error was observed, with uncertainties &lt; 10 % for large slumps and &lt; 20 % for small to medium slumps. Second, a multisource slump inventory (MSI) for two study areas in the Beaufort Delta (Canada) region was developed to characterize the diverse range of disturbance morphologies and activity levels, which provided consistent characterization of thaw-slump-affected slopes between regions and through time. The MSI delineation of high-resolution hillshade digital elevation models (DEMs) for three time periods (airborne stereo-imagery, lidar, ArcticDEM) revealed temporal and spatial trends in these chronic mass-wasting features. For example, in the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands, a +38 % increase in active RTS counts and +69 % increase in total active surface area were observed between 2004 and 2016. However, the total disturbance area of RTS-affected terrain did not change considerably (+3.5 %) because the vast majority of active thaw slumping processes occurred in association with past disturbances. Interpretation of thaw-driven change is thus dependent on how active RTS is defined to support disturbance inventories. Our results highlight that active RTS is tightly linked to past disturbances, underscoring the importance of inventorying inactive scar areas. Third, the pre-disturbance topographies, MSI digitizations, and DEMs were integrated to explore allometric scaling relationships between RTS area and eroded volume. The power-law model indicated non-linearity in the rates of RTS expansion and intensification across scales (adj-R2 of 0.85, n= 1522) but also revealed that elongated, shoreline RTS reflects outliers poorly represented by the modelling. These results indicate that variation in the allometric scaling of RTS populations is based on morphometry, terrain position, and complexity of the disturbance area, as well as the method and ontology by which slumps are inventoried. This study highlights the importance of linking field-based knowledge to feature identification and the utility of high-resolution DEMs in quantifying rates of RTS erosion beyond tracking changes in the planimetric area.</p

Snow accumulation, albedo and melt patterns following road construction on permafrost, Inuvik–Tuktoyaktuk Highway, Canada

Roads constructed on permafrost can have a significant impact on the surrounding environment, potentially inducing permafrost degradation. These impacts arise from factors such as snow accumulation near the road, which affects the soil's thermal and hydrological regime, and road dust that decreases the snow's albedo, altering the timing of snowmelt. However, our current understanding of the magnitude and the spatial extent of these effects is limited. In this study we addressed this gap by using remote sensing techniques to assess the spatial effect of the Inuvik to Tuktoyaktuk Highway (ITH) in Northwest Territories, Canada, on snow accumulation, snow albedo and snowmelt patterns. With a new, high resolution snow depth raster from airborne laser scanning, we quantified the snow accumulation at road segments in the Trail Valley Creek area using digital elevation model differencing. We found increased snow accumulation up to 36 m from the road center. The magnitude of this snow accumulation was influenced by the prevailing wind direction and the embankment height. Furthermore, by analyzing 43 Sentinel-2 satellite images between February and May 2020, we observed reduced snow albedo values within 500 m of the road, resulting in a 12-days-earlier onset of snowmelt within 100 m from the road. We examined snowmelt patterns before, during and after the road construction using the normalized difference snow index from Landsat-7 and Landsat-8 imagery. Our analysis revealed that the road affected the snowmelt pattern up to 600 m from the road, even in areas which appeared undisturbed. In summary, our study improves our understanding of the spatial impact of gravel roads on permafrost due to enhanced snow accumulation, reduced snow albedo and earlier snowmelt. Our study underscores the important contribution that remote sensing can provide to improve our understanding of the effects of infrastructure development on permafrost environments.</p

High methylmercury in Arctic and subarctic ponds is related to nutrient levels in the warming eastern Canadian Arctic

Permafrost thaw ponds are ubiquitous in the eastern Canadian Arctic, yet little information exists on their potential as sources of methylmercury (MeHg) to freshwaters. They are microbially active and conducive to methylation of inorganic mercury, and are also affected by Arctic warming. This multiyear study investigated thaw ponds in a discontinuous permafrost region in the Subarctic taiga (Kuujjuarapik-Whapmagoostui, QC) and a continuous permafrost region in the Arctic tundra (Bylot Island, NU). MeHg concentrations in thaw ponds were well above levels measured in most freshwater ecosystems in the Canadian Arctic (>0.1 ng L−1). On Bylot, ice-wedge trough ponds showed significantly higher MeHg (0.3−2.2 ng L−1) than polygonal ponds (0.1−0.3 ng L−1) or lakes (<0.1 ng L−1). High MeHg was measured in the bottom waters of Subarctic thaw ponds near Kuujjuarapik (0.1−3.1 ng L−1). High water MeHg concentrations in thaw ponds were strongly correlated with variables associated with high inputs of organic matter (DOC, a320, Fe), nutrients (TP, TN), and microbial activity (dissolved CO2 and CH4). Thawing permafrost due to Arctic warming will continue to release nutrients and organic carbon into these systems and increase ponding in some regions, likely stimulating higher water concentrations of MeHg. Greater hydrological connectivity from permafrost thawing may potentially increase transport of MeHg from thaw ponds to neighboring aquatic ecosystems

Climate Change and the Potential Spreading of Marine Mucilage and Microbial Pathogens in the Mediterranean Sea

Background: Marine snow (small amorphous aggregates with colloidal properties) is present in all oceans of the world. Surface water warming and the consequent increase of water column stability can favour the coalescence of marine snow into marine mucilage, large marine aggregates representing an ephemeral and extreme habitat. Marine mucilage characterize aquatic systems with altered environmental conditions. Methodology/Principal Findings: We investigated, by means of molecular techniques, viruses and prokaryotes within the mucilage and in surrounding seawater to examine the potential of mucilage to host new microbial diversity and/or spread marine diseases. We found that marine mucilage contained a large and unexpectedly exclusive microbial biodiversity and hosted pathogenic species that were absent in surrounding seawater. We also investigated the relationship between climate change and the frequency of mucilage in the Mediterranean Sea over the last 200 years and found that the number of mucilage outbreaks increased almost exponentially in the last 20 years. The increasing frequency of mucilage outbreaks is closely associated with the temperature anomalies. Conclusions/Significance: We conclude that the spreading of mucilage in the Mediterranean Sea is linked to climate-driven sea surface warming. The mucilage can act as a controlling factor of microbial diversity across wide oceanic regions and could have the potential to act as a carrier of specific microorganisms, thereby increasing the spread of pathogenic bacteria

Growth of a young pingo in the Canadian Arctic observed by RADARSAT-2 interferometric satellite radar

Advancements in radar technology are increasing our ability to detect Earth surface deformation in permafrost environments. In this paper we use satellite Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) to describe the growth of a large, relatively young pingo in the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands. High-resolution RADARSAT-2 imagery (2011–2014) analyzed with the Multidimensional Small Baseline Subset (MSBAS) DInSAR revealed a maximum 2.7 cm yr⁻¹ of domed uplift located in a drained lake basin. Satellite measurements suggest that this feature is one of the largest diameter pingos in the region that is presently growing. Observed changes in elevation were modeled as a 348  &times;  290 m uniformly loaded elliptical plate with clamped edge. Analysis of historical aerial photographs suggested that ground uplift at this location initiated sometime between 1935 and 1951 following drainage of the residual pond. Uplift is largely due to the growth of intrusive ice, because the 9 % expansion of pore water associated with permafrost aggradation into saturated sands is not sufficient to explain the observed short- and long-term deformation rates. The modeled thickness of ice-rich permafrost using the Northern Ecosystem Soil Temperature (NEST) was consistent with the maximum height of this feature. Modeled permafrost aggradation from 1972 to 2014 approximated elevation changes estimated from aerial photographs for that time period. Taken together, these lines of evidence indicate that uplift is at least in part a result of freezing of the sub-pingo water lens. Seasonal variations in the uplift rate seen in the DInSAR data closely match the modeled seasonal pattern in the deepening rate of freezing front. This study demonstrates that interferometric satellite radar can detect and contribute to understanding the dynamics of terrain uplift in response to permafrost aggradation and ground ice development in remote polar environments. The present-day growth rate is smaller than predicted by the modeling and no clear growth is observed at other smaller pingos in contrast with field studies performed mainly before the 1990s. Investigation of this apparent discrepancy provides an opportunity to further develop observation methods and models

Ground ice and soluble cations in near-surface permafrost, Inuvik, Northwest Territories, Canada

The distribution of segregated ice and soluble ions in near-surface permafrost were investigated in hummocky terrain near Inuvik, Northwest Territories. Soil water content profiles from analyses of drill cores indicate that ice-poor permafrost developed beneath a permafrost table aggrading at approximately 4 cm/a, but an ice-rich zone, 10 to 20 cm thick, was observed beneath a permafrost table that had remained stable for about a decade. Ice-rich intervals 10 to 30 cm thick were observed immediately beneath both a thaw unconformity formed in 1981 and an older, deeper unconformity. In profile, the correspondence between zones of cation and ice enrichment suggests soluble materials were incorporated into permafrost during development of near-surface aggradational ice. Moisture enrichment below an experimentally degrading permafrost table was negligible. Similar ice contents beneath the present permafrost table and the deep thaw unconformity, and the preservation of ice-poor intervals immediately above the 1981 and deep thaw unconformities indicate limited vertical ice enrichment. The estimated rates of ice accumulation in two-decade-old permafrost are on the order of mm/a, but ice accumulation above older unconformities indicates that, in aggregate, these initial rates decrease with time. The ground ice and soluble cations sequestered in near-surface permafrost comprise an important pool of water and nutrients that may be released into the active layer during periods of deeper thaw. Copyrigh

Retrogressive thaw slumps temper dissolved organic carbon delivery to streams of the Peel Plateau, NWT, Canada

In Siberia and Alaska, permafrost thaw has been associated with significant increases in the delivery of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to recipient stream ecosystems. Here, we examine the effect of retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) on DOC concentration and transport, using data from eight RTS features on the Peel Plateau, NWT, Canada. Like extensive regions of northwestern Canada, the Peel Plateau is comprised of thick, ice-rich tills that were deposited at the margins of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. RTS features are now widespread in this region, with headwall exposures up to 30 m high and total disturbed areas often exceeding 20 ha. We find that intensive slumping on the Peel Plateau is universally associated with decreasing DOC concentrations downstream of slumps, even though the composition of slump-derived dissolved organic matter (DOM; assessed using specific UV absorbance and slope ratios) is similar to permafrost-derived DOM from other regions. Comparisons of upstream and downstream DOC flux relative to fluxes of total suspended solids suggest that the substantial fine-grained sediments released by RTS features may sequester DOC. Runoff obtained directly from slump rill water, above entry into recipient streams, indicates that the deepest RTS features, which thaw the greatest extent of buried, Pleistocene-aged glacial tills, release low-concentration DOC when compared to paired upstream, undisturbed locations, while shallower features, with exposures that are more limited to a relict Holocene active layer, have within-slump DOC concentrations more similar to upstream sites. Finally, fine-scale work at a single RTS site indicates that temperature and precipitation serve as primary environmental controls on above-slump and below-slump DOC flux, but it also shows that the relationship between climatic parameters and DOC flux is complex for these dynamic thermokarst features. These results demonstrate that we should expect clear variation in thermokarst-associated DOC mobilization across Arctic regions. However, they also show that within-region variation in thermokarst intensity and landscape composition is critical for determining the biogeochemical response. Geological and climate legacy shape the physical and chemical composition of permafrost and thermokarst potential. As such, these factors must be considered in predictions of land-to-water carbon mobilization in a warming Arctic

Particulate dominance of organic carbon mobilization from thaw slumps on the Peel Plateau, NT:Quantification and implications for stream systems and permafrost carbon release

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of thermokarst, and accelerating the delivery of terrestrial organic material from previously sequestered sources to aquatic systems, where it is subject to further biochemical alteration. Rapid climate change in the glacially conditioned ice-rich and ice-marginal terrain of the Peel Plateau, western Canada, is accelerating thaw-driven mass wasting in the form of retrogressive thaw slumps, which are rapidly increasing in area, volume and thickness of permafrost thawed. Despite major perturbation of downstream sedimentary and geochemical fluxes, few studies have examined changes in flux and composition of particulate organic carbon (POC) in streams and rivers as a result of permafrost thaw. Here we show that the orders of magnitude increase in total organic carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus mobilized to streams from thaw slumps on the Peel Plateau is almost entirely due to POC and associated particulate nitrogen and phosphorus release. Slump-mobilized POC is compositionally distinct from its dissolved counterpart and appears to contain relatively greater amounts of degraded organic matter, as inferred from base-extracted fluorescence of particulate organic matter. Thus, slump-mobilized POC is potentially more recalcitrant than POC present in non-slump affected stream networks. Furthermore a substantial portion of POC mobilized from thaw slumps will be constrained within primary sediment stores in valley bottoms, where net accumulation is currently exceeding net erosion, resulting in century to millennial scale sequestration of thermokarst-mobilized POC. This study highlights the pressing need for better knowledge of sedimentary cascades, mobilization, and storage reservoirs in slump-affected streams, and baseline assessments of the biodegradability of POC and cycling of particulate nutrients within a sedimentary cascade framework. Explicit incorporation of POC dynamics into our understanding of land-water carbon mobilization in the face of permafrost thaw is critical for understanding implications of thermokarst for regional carbon cycling and fluvial ecosystems

Changes in surface water dynamics across northwestern Canada are influenced by wildfire and permafrost thaw

The abundance and distribution of surface water at high latitudes is shifting rapidly in response to both climate change and permafrost thaw. In particular, the expansion and drainage of lakes and ponds is widespread but spatially variable, and more research is needed to understand factors driving these processes. In this study we used medium resolution (30 m) remote sensing data to analyse changes in lake area in permafrost-rich lowland regions across northwestern Canada. First, we used the Global Surface Water Dataset developed by the GLAD research group to map the absolute area of different land–water transitions across a 1.4 million km ^2 study domain. Next, we selected six regional study areas representing a range of climatic, geologic and hydrologic conditions. Within these regional study areas, we used the Landsat satellite archive to map annual trends in the area of 27 755 lakes between 1985 and 2020. We trained a random forests model to classify lakes exhibiting significant increasing or decreasing trends in area, and assessed the relative importance of climate, disturbance and environmental variables in determining the direction of change. Our analysis shows that significant increases in lake area were 5.6 times more frequent than decreases during the study period. Wildfire and ground ice abundance were the most important predictors of the direction of change. Greater ground ice content was associated with regions that experienced increases in lake area, while wildfire was associated with regions that experienced decreases in lake area. The effects of climate, including trends in mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation were smaller than disturbance and environmental factors, indicating that climate has likely had indirect effects on lake area changes over our period of study