Hurricane risk analysis: A review on the physically-based approach

This paper reviews recent studies that take a physically-based approach to better assess and manage hurricane risk. Such a methodology includes three components: modeling the storm climatology (which defines TC risk in terms of the upper tail of the storm statistics); modeling landfalling hazards; and characterizing damage and losses

The use of the very large atmospheric model ensemble to assess potential anthropogenic influence on the UK summer 2012 high rainfall totals

The European summer of 2012 was marked by strongly contrasting rainfall anomalies, which led to flooding in northern Europe and droughts and wildfires in southern Europe. This season was not an isolated event, rather the latest in a string of summers characterized by a southward shifted Atlantic storm track as described by the negative phase of the SNAO. The degree of decadal variability in these features suggests a role for forcing from outside the dynamical atmosphere, and preliminary numerical experiments suggest that the global SST and low Arctic sea ice extent anomalies are likely to have played a role and that warm North Atlantic SSTs were a particular contributing factor. The direct effects of changes in radiative forcing from greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing are not included in these experiments, but both anthropogenic forcing and natural variability may have influenced the SST and sea ice changes

Alternative grazing fee formula impacts on representative public land ranches.

The Farm Level Income Tax and Policy Simulation Model (FLIPSIM) was used to evaluate and quantify the impacts of alternative grazing fee formulas, discussed in the 1986 Grazing Review and Evaluation and its recent update. Economic viability (level of income and risk) was estimated for 4 representative ranches that lease public range lands in the western United States. Average annual net cash income is projected to be positive over the 1992-97 planning horizon although income is projected to decline for the first 4 years as cattle prices weaken. Average annual net cash income under the alternative grazing fee formulas falls by as much as 37% relative to the current Public Rangelands Improvement Act formula for all of the ranches studied. Real net worth of each ranch declines as much as 22% over the study period under the highest alternative grazing fee

Socioecological Determinants of Drought Impacts and Coping Strategies for Ranching Operations in the Great Plains

In Great Plains rangelands, drought is a recurring disturbance. Ranchers in this region expect to encounter drought but may not be adequately prepared for it. Efforts to encourage drought preparedness would benefit from a better understanding of the conditions under which managers make decisions to minimize the impacts of drought. We tested the direct and moderating roles of the drought hazard and the social-ecological context on drought impacts and response. This study was conducted with ranchers in western and central South Dakota and Nebraska following the drought that began in 2012. We surveyed ranchers regarding the effects of the drought and their responses and used multimodel analysis to explore the relationships among measures of drought preparedness, drought response, and drought impacts. Drought severity was the primary predictor of all impacts, but specific types of impacts were varied depending on the operation's enterprise mix, resources, and management. The socioecological characteristics of the ranch system predicted drought response actions taken, by either providing the necessary resources and capacity to take action or creating sensitivity in the system that required action to be taken. We conclude with recommendations for learning from current drought experiences in order to better adapt to future drought events. © 2019 The Society for Range ManagementThe Rangeland Ecology & Management archives are made available by the Society for Range Management and the University of Arizona Libraries. Contact [email protected] for further information