Disentangling the Effects of Vapor Pressure Deficit and Soil Water Availability on Canopy Conductance in a Seasonal Tropical Forest During the 2015 El Niño Drought

Water deficit in the atmosphere and soil are two key interactive factors that constrain transpiration and vegetation productivity. It is not clear which of these two factors is more important for the water and carbon flux response to drought stress in ecosystems. In this study, field data and numerical modeling were used to isolate their impact on evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) at a tropical forest site in Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, focusing on their response to the drought induced by the El Niño event of 2015–2016. Numerical simulations were performed using a plant hydrodynamic scheme (HYDRO) and a heuristic approach that ignores stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM). The sensitivity of canopy conductance (Gs) to vapor pressure deficit (VPD) obtained from eddy-covariance fluxes and measured sap flux shows that, at both ecosystem and plant scale, soil water stress is more important in limiting Gs than VPD at BCI during the El Niño event. The model simulations confirmed the importance of water stress limitation on Gs, but overestimated the VPD impact on Gs compared to that estimated from the observations. We also found that the predicted soil moisture is less sensitive to the diversity of plant hydraulic traits than ET and GPP. During the dry season at BCI, seasonal ET, especially soil evaporation at VPD \u3e 0.42 kPa, simulated using HYDRO and ELM, were too strong and will require alternative parameterizations

Controls on terrestrial carbon feedbacks by productivity versus turnover in the CMIP5 Earth System Models

PublishedJournal Article© Author(s) 2015. To better understand sources of uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, we present an approach to separate the controls on modeled carbon changes. We separate carbon changes into four categories using a linearized, equilibrium approach: those arising from changed inputs (productivity-driven changes), and outputs (turnover-driven changes), of both the live and dead carbon pools. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations for five models, we find that changes to the live pools are primarily explained by productivity-driven changes, with only one model showing large compensating changes to live carbon turnover times. For dead carbon pools, the situation is more complex as all models predict a large reduction in turnover times in response to increases in productivity. This response arises from the common representation of a broad spectrum of decomposition turnover times via a multi-pool approach, in which flux-weighted turnover times are faster than mass-weighted turnover times. This leads to a shift in the distribution of carbon among dead pools in response to changes in inputs, and therefore a transient but long-lived reduction in turnover times. Since this behavior, a reduction in inferred turnover times resulting from an increase in inputs, is superficially similar to priming processes, but occurring without the mechanisms responsible for priming, we call the phenomenon "false priming", and show that it masks much of the intrinsic changes to dead carbon turnover times as a result of changing climate. These patterns hold across the fully coupled, biogeochemically coupled, and radiatively coupled 1 % yr-1 increasing CO2 experiments. We disaggregate inter-model uncertainty in the globally integrated equilibrium carbon responses to initial turnover times, initial productivity, fractional changes in turnover, and fractional changes in productivity. For both the live and dead carbon pools, inter-model spread in carbon changes arising from initial conditions is dominated by model disagreement on turnover times, whereas inter-model spread in carbon changes from fractional changes to these terms is dominated by model disagreement on changes to productivity in response to both warming and CO2 fertilization. However, the lack of changing turnover time control on carbon responses, for both live and dead carbon pools, in response to the imposed forcings may arise from a common lack of process representation behind changing turnover times (e.g., allocation and mortality for live carbon; permafrost, microbial dynamics, and mineral stabilization for dead carbon), rather than a true estimate of the importance of these processes.This research was supported by the Director, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract no. DE-AC02-05CH11231 as part of their Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups listed in Table 1 for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. CDJ was supported by the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101)

Identification of key parameters controlling demographically structured vegetation dynamics in a land surface model: CLM4.5(FATES)

Vegetation plays an important role in regulating global carbon cycles and is a key component of the Earth system models (ESMs) that aim to project Earth's future climate. In the last decade, the vegetation component within ESMs has witnessed great progress from simple "big-leaf" approaches to demographically structured approaches, which have a better representation of plant size, canopy structure, and disturbances. These demographically structured vegetation models typically have a large number of input parameters, and sensitivity analysis is needed to quantify the impact of each parameter on the model outputs for a better understanding of model behavior. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to diagnose the Community Land Model coupled to the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Simulator, or CLM4.5(FATES). Specifically, we quantified the first- and second-order sensitivities of the model parameters to outputs that represent simulated growth and mortality as well as carbon fluxes and stocks for a tropical site with an extent of 1×1°. While the photosynthetic capacity parameter (Vc;max25) is found to be important for simulated carbon stocks and fluxes, we also show the importance of carbon storage and allometry parameters, which determine survival and growth strategies within the model. The parameter sensitivity changes with different sizes of trees and climate conditions. The results of this study highlight the importance of understanding the dynamics of the next generation of demographically enabled vegetation models within ESMs to improve model parameterization and structure for better model fidelity

World health system performance revisited: the impact of varying the relative importance of health system goals

BACKGROUND: In 2002, the World Health Organization published a health system performance ranking for 191 member countries. The ranking was based on five indicators, with fixed weights common to all countries. METHODS: We investigate the feasibility and desirability of using mathematical programming techniques that allow weights to vary across countries to reflect their varying circumstances and objectives. RESULTS: By global distributional measures, scores and ranks are found to be not very sensitive to changes in weights, although differences can be large for individual countries. CONCLUSIONS: Building the flexibility of variable weights into calculation of the performance index is a useful way to respond to the debates and criticisms appearing since publication of the ranking

A randomized controlled trial of amyloid positron emission tomography results disclosure in mild cognitive impairment

IntroductionRecent studies suggest that Alzheimer’s disease (AD) biomarker disclosure has no discernable psychological impact on cognitively healthy persons. Far less is known about how such results affect symptomatic individuals and their caregivers.MethodsRandomized controlled trial of 82 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patient and caregiver dyads (total n = 164) to determine the effect of receiving amyloid positron emission tomography results on understanding of, and perceived efficacy to cope with, MCI over 52 weeks of follow‐up.ResultsGains in the primary outcomes were not consistently observed. Amyloid negative patients reported greater perceived ambiguity regarding MCI at follow‐up, while moderate and sustained emotional distress was observed in patients, and to a lesser extent, caregivers, of those who were amyloid positive. There was no corresponding increase in depressive symptoms.DiscussionThese findings point to the possibility that both MCI patients and caregivers may need emotional support after the disclosure of amyloid scan results.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/163444/2/alz12129_am.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/163444/1/alz12129.pd

AGT M235T Genotype/Anxiety Interaction and Gender in the HyperGEN Study

BACKGROUND. Both anxiety and elevated heart rate (HR) have been implicated in the development of hypertension. The HyperGen cohort, consisting of siblings with severe and mild hypertension, an age-matched random sample of persons from the same base populations, and unmedicated adult offspring of the hypertensive siblings (N=1,002 men and 987 women), was analyzed for an association of the angiotenisinogen AGTM235T genotype (TT, MT, MM) with an endophenotype, heart rate (HR) in high and low anxious groups. METHODOLOGY. The interaction of AGTM genotype with anxiety, which has been independently associated with hypertension, was investigated adjusting for age, hypertension status, smoking, alcohol consumption, beta blocker medication, body mass index, physical activity and hours of television viewing (sedentary life style). PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. Although there was no main effect of genotype on HR in men or women, high anxious men with the TT genotype had high HR, whereas high anxious men with the MM genotype had low HR. In women, HR was inversely associated with anxiety but there was no interaction with genotype. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE. The results suggest that high anxiety in men with the TT genotype may increase risk for hypertension whereas the MM genotype may be protective in high anxious men. This type of gene x environment interaction may be one reason why genome wide association studies sometimes fail to replicate. The locus may be important only in combination with certain environmental factors.National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (UT FC, HL54472, HL54473, HL54495, HL54496, HL54497, HL54509, HL54515

Survivin expression in in situ and invasive breast cancer relates to COX-2 expression and DCIS recurrence

In lung cancer cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) expression has been reported to stabilise survivin, an inhibitor of apoptosis (IAP) which prevents cell death by blocking activated caspases. COX-2 expression limits the ubiquitination of survivin, protecting it from degradation. To determine if COX-2 expression in breast cancer showed an association with survivin expression, we assessed the levels of each protein in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and invasive breast cancer (IBC); relating expression patterns to recurrence of DCIS after surgery. Patterns of COX-2 and survivin expression were determined by intensity-graded immunohistochemistry of the primary tumours. Patients with DCIS (n=161) which had either recurred (n=47) or shown no evidence of recurrence (n=114) 5 years following primary surgery were studied. These were compared to 58 cases of IBC. Survivin was expressed in the cytoplasm of 59% of DCIS and 17% of IBC. High levels of both cytoplasmic survivin and COX-2 expression significantly correlated to DCIS recurrence. COX-2 expression was present in 72% of DCIS, and levels of expression positively correlated with cytoplasmic survivin expression in DCIS and invasive disease. The majority of DCIS that recurred expressed both proteins (69%) vs 39% nonrecurrent. Recurrence was not seen in DCIS lacking both proteins at 5 years (P=0.001). Expression of the IAP survivin is increased in DCIS and correlates closely with COX-2 expression. Increased expression of IAP, (leading to reduced apoptosis) may explain the effect of COX-2 in increasing recurrence of DCIS after surgical treatment

Scalar and vector Slepian functions, spherical signal estimation and spectral analysis

It is a well-known fact that mathematical functions that are timelimited (or spacelimited) cannot be simultaneously bandlimited (in frequency). Yet the finite precision of measurement and computation unavoidably bandlimits our observation and modeling scientific data, and we often only have access to, or are only interested in, a study area that is temporally or spatially bounded. In the geosciences we may be interested in spectrally modeling a time series defined only on a certain interval, or we may want to characterize a specific geographical area observed using an effectively bandlimited measurement device. It is clear that analyzing and representing scientific data of this kind will be facilitated if a basis of functions can be found that are "spatiospectrally" concentrated, i.e. "localized" in both domains at the same time. Here, we give a theoretical overview of one particular approach to this "concentration" problem, as originally proposed for time series by Slepian and coworkers, in the 1960s. We show how this framework leads to practical algorithms and statistically performant methods for the analysis of signals and their power spectra in one and two dimensions, and, particularly for applications in the geosciences, for scalar and vectorial signals defined on the surface of a unit sphere.Comment: Submitted to the 2nd Edition of the Handbook of Geomathematics, edited by Willi Freeden, Zuhair M. Nashed and Thomas Sonar, and to be published by Springer Verlag. This is a slightly modified but expanded version of the paper arxiv:0909.5368 that appeared in the 1st Edition of the Handbook, when it was called: Slepian functions and their use in signal estimation and spectral analysi

Phase I Trial of the Human Double Minute 2 Inhibitor MK-8242 in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors.

Purpose To evaluate MK-8242 in patients with wild-type TP53 advanced solid tumors. Patients and Methods MK-8242 was administered orally twice a day on days 1 to 7 in 21-day cycles. The recommended phase II dose (RP2D) was determined on the basis of safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics (PK), and by mRNA expression of the p53 target gene pleckstrin homology-like domain, family A, member 3 ( PHLDA3). Other objectives were to characterize the PK/pharmacodynamic (PD) relationship, correlate biomarkers with response, and assess tumor response. Results Forty-seven patients received MK-8242 across eight doses that ranged from 60 to 500 mg. Initially, six patients developed dose-limiting toxicities (DLTs): grade (G) 2 nausea at 120 mg; G3 fatigue at 250 mg; G2 nausea and G4 thrombocytopenia at 350 mg; and G3 vomiting and G3 diarrhea at 500 mg. DLT criteria were revised to permit management of GI toxicities. Dosing was resumed at 400 mg, and four additional DLTs were observed: G4 neutropenia and G4 thrombocytopenia at 400 mg and G4 thrombocytopenia (two patients) at 500 mg. Other drug-related G3 and G4 events included anemia, leukopenia, pancytopenia, nausea, hyperbilirubinemia, hypophosphatemia, and anorexia. On the basis of safety, tolerability, PK, and PD, the RP2D was established at 400 mg (15 evaluable patients experienced two DLTs). PK for 400 mg (day 7) showed Cmax 3.07 μM, Tmax 3.0 hours, t1/2 (half-life) 6.6 hours, CL/F (apparent clearance) 28.9 L/h, and Vd/F (apparent volume) 274 L. Blood PHLDA3 mRNA expression correlated with drug exposure ( R(2) = 0.68; P < .001). In 41 patients with postbaseline scans, three patients with liposarcoma achieved a partial response (at 250, 400, and 500 mg), 31 showed stable disease, and eight had progressive disease. In total, 27 patients with liposarcoma had a median progression-free survival of 237 days. Conclusion At the RP2D of 400 mg twice a day, MK-8242 activated the p53 pathway with an acceptable safety and tolerability profile. The observed clinical activity (partial response and prolonged progression-free survival) provides an impetus for further study of HDM2 inhibitors in liposarcoma

Intra-cluster correlation coefficients in adults with diabetes in primary care practices: the Vermont Diabetes Information System field survey

BACKGROUND: Proper estimation of sample size requirements for cluster-based studies requires estimates of the intra-cluster correlation coefficient (ICC) for the variables of interest. METHODS: We calculated the ICC for 112 variables measured as part of the Vermont Diabetes Information System, a cluster-randomized study of adults with diabetes from 73 primary care practices (the clusters) in Vermont and surrounding areas. RESULTS: ICCs varied widely around a median value of 0.0185 (Inter-quartile range: 0.006, 0.037). Some characteristics (such as the proportion having a recent creatinine measurement) were highly associated with the practice (ICC = 0.288), while others (prevalence of some comorbidities and complications and certain aspects of quality of life) varied much more across patients with only small correlation within practices (ICC<0.001). CONCLUSION: The ICC values reported here may be useful in designing future studies that use clustered sampling from primary care practices