Adversarial Interpretation of Bayesian Inference

We build on the optimization-centric view on Bayesian inference advocated by Knoblauch et al. (2019). Thinking about Bayesian and generalized Bayesian posteriors as the solutions to a regularized minimization problem allows us to answer an intriguing question: If minimization is the primal problem, then what is its dual? By deriving the Fenchel dual of the problem, we demonstrate that this dual corresponds to an adversarial game: In the dual space, the prior becomes the cost function for an adversary that seeks to perturb the likelihood [loss] function targeted by standard [generalized] Bayesian inference. This implies that Bayes-like procedures are adversarially robust—providing another firm theoretical foundation for their empirical performance. Our contributions are foundational, and apply to a wide-ranging set of Machine Learning methods. This includes standard Bayesian inference, generalized Bayesian and Gibbs posteriors (Bissiri et al., 2016), as well as a diverse set of other methods including Generalized Variational Inference (Knoblauch et al., 2019) and the Wasserstein Autoencoder (Tolstikhin et al., 2017)

Spatial mobility and large-scale resource extraction: an analysis of community well-being and health in a copper mining area of Zambia

We examine population mobility around a newly-developed large-scale copper mine in Zambia and analyse how socioeconomic and health indicators differed amongst migrants, resettled households, and non-mobile local (e.g. non-migrant/-resettled) populations. Two cross-sectional household surveys in 2015 and 2019 collected quan-titative data on health, socioeconomic indicators, and resettlement and migration status. A wealth index for the pooled sample (N =990 households) was computed using a simplified list of household assets adapted from the Zambia Demographic and Health Survey. Logistic regression models were conducted to assess associations with health outcomes. In-migrants were younger than non-mobile locals (mean age of household head 33.9 vs. 37.7 years), more highly educated (34.3% of household heads completed secondary school vs. 7.3%), had higher employment (43.8% vs. 15.8%), and higher mean wealth (3.6 vs. 3.0). The odds of having a child <5 years diagnosed with malaria (OR: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.40, 0.71) or classified as stunted (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.50, 0.87) were significantly lower for migrants during the construction phase, even after adjusting for family wealth score. Migrant and resettled households had greater wealth and assets even after adjusting for age, education, and employment, suggesting spatial mobility is associated with improved socioeconomic status and disease prevention

Estrogen receptor negative/progesterone receptor positive breast cancer is not a reproducible subtype

Introduction: Estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) testing are performed in the evaluation of breast cancer. While the clinical utility of ER as a predictive biomarker to identify patients likely to benefit from hormonal therapy is well-established, the added value of PR is less well-defined. The primary goals of our study were to assess the distribution, inter-assay reproducibility, and prognostic significance of breast cancer subtypes defined by patterns of ER and PR expression. Methods: We integrated gene expression microarray (GEM) and clinico-pathologic data from 20 published studies to determine the frequency (n = 4,111) and inter-assay reproducibility (n = 1,752) of ER/PR subtypes (ER+/PR+, ER+/PR-, ER-/PR-, ER-/PR+). To extend our findings, we utilized a cohort of patients from the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) with ER/PR data recorded in the medical record and assessed on tissue microarrays (n = 2,011). In both datasets, we assessed the association of ER and PR expression with survival. Results: In a genome-wide analysis, progesterone receptor was among the least variable genes in ER- breast cancer. The ER-/PR+ subtype was rare (approximately 1 to 4%) and showed no significant reproducibility (Kappa = 0.02 and 0.06, in the GEM and NHS datasets, respectively). The vast majority of patients classified as ER-/PR+ in the medical record (97% and 94%, in the GEM and NHS datasets) were re-classified by a second method. In the GEM dataset (n = 2,731), progesterone receptor mRNA expression was associated with prognosis in ER+ breast cancer (adjusted P <0.001), but not in ER- breast cancer (adjusted P = 0.21). PR protein expression did not contribute significant prognostic information to multivariate models considering ER and other standard clinico-pathologic features in the GEM or NHS datasets. Conclusion: ER-/PR+ breast cancer is not a reproducible subtype. PR expression is not associated with prognosis in ER- breast cancer, and PR does not contribute significant independent prognostic information to multivariate models considering ER and other standard clinico-pathologic factors. Given that PR provides no clinically actionable information in ER+ breast cancer, these findings question the utility of routine PR testing in breast cancer

Changes in household wealth in communities living in proximity to a large-scale copper mine in Zambia

Large-scale mining can alter the living conditions of surrounding communities in positive and negative ways. A health impact assessment conducted in the context of a newly developed large-scale copper mine in rural Zambia gave us the opportunity to measure changes in health determinants over time. We conducted periodic household surveys at baseline in 2011, during the construction phase in 2015 and during the operational phase in 2019. Data collected included economic indicators that were based on the standardized list of household assets used in the Zambia Demographic and Health Survey, which we subsequently converted into a wealth score using principal component analysis. We compared mean wealth scores in six communities directly impacted by the mine with comparison communities, as well as the rest of the North-Western province of Zambia. A difference-indifferences linear regression model was used to compare changes over time. Mean wealth of the communities near the mine was significantly lower at baseline than that of the North-Western province (? 0.54 points; pvalue< 0.001) in 2011, but surpassed the regional average in 2019 (+1.07 points; p-value <0.001). Mean wealth increased more rapidly in communities directly impacted by mine than in the comparison communities (+0.30 points, p-value <0.001). These results suggest a positive impact on living conditions in communities living near this copper mine. Our findings underscore the potential of the mining sector to contribute to economic development in Zambia

Changes in socioeconomic determinants of health in a copper mine development area, northwestern Zambia

In 2011, an industrial copper mine was developed in northwestern Zambia. A health impact assessment was conducted to anticipate and address potential health impacts. To monitor these impacts, three community-based surveys were conducted in the area (2011, 2015 and 2019). We analysed these data to determine how household socioeconomic indicators - considered determinants of health - have changed in the area over time. In mine-impacted communities, between 2011 (pre-construction) and 2019, significant changes were observed for: (i) average household size (-0.6 members); (ii) proportion of mothers that have not completed primary school (+20.4%); (iii) ownership of economic assets (e.g. phones +29.3%; televisions +15.6%); (iv) access to safe drinking water (+27.4%); and (v) improved housing structures (e.g. finished roof +58.6%). When comparing changes between 2015 and 2019 in impacted communities to nearby comparison communities, there was (i) an increased proportion of mothers that had not completed primary school in comparison communities vs. no change in impacted communities; and (ii) increased ownership of economic assets in impacted vs. comparison communities in 2019. This study found generally positive changes in the socioeconomic development of impacted compared to comparison communities, with the most pronounced improvements in the early phases of mine development

Microbial methane cycling in sediments of Arctic thermokarst lagoons

Thermokarst lagoons represent the transition state from a freshwater lacustrine to a marine environment, and receive little attention regarding their role for greenhouse gas production and release in Arctic permafrost landscapes. We studied the fate of methane (CH4) in sediments of a thermokarst lagoon in comparison to two thermokarst lakes on the Bykovsky Peninsula in northeastern Siberia through the analysis of sediment CH4 concentrations and isotopic signature, methane-cycling microbial taxa, sediment geochemistry, lipid biomarkers, and network analysis. We assessed how differences in geochemistry between thermokarst lakes and thermokarst lagoons, caused by the infiltration of sulfate-rich marine water, altered the microbial methane-cycling community. Anaerobic sulfate-reducing ANME-2a/2b methanotrophs dominated the sulfate-rich sediments of the lagoon despite its known seasonal alternation between brackish and freshwater inflow and low sulfate concentrations compared to the usual marine ANME habitat. Non-competitive methylotrophic methanogens dominated the methanogenic community of the lakes and the lagoon, independent of differences in porewater chemistry and depth. This potentially contributed to the high CH4 concentrations observed in all sulfate-poor sediments. CH4 concentrations in the freshwater-influenced sediments averaged 1.34 ± 0.98 μmol g−1, with highly depleted δ13C-CH4 values ranging from −89‰ to −70‰. In contrast, the sulfate-affected upper 300 cm of the lagoon exhibited low average CH4 concentrations of 0.011 ± 0.005 μmol g−1 with comparatively enriched δ13C-CH4 values of −54‰ to −37‰ pointing to substantial methane oxidation. Our study shows that lagoon formation specifically supports methane oxidizers and methane oxidation through changes in pore water chemistry, especially sulfate, while methanogens are similar to lake conditions

Participating together: dialogic space for children and architects in the design process

© 2016 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis GroupTypically enmeshed in the ‘voice’ perspective within children’s participation debates, there are currently sporadic insights into designer–child creative dialogue. Drawing on the findings of a Leverhulme Trust-funded research project, this paper articulates moments of dialogue between architects and children in spatial design processes, whose spatial and symbolic qualities help to understand the interactions and meeting of cultures. Several authors have discussed the transformational potential for adults and children to ‘co-author’ identities in dialogical contexts. The paper builds on this body of research to suggest that design dialogue offers the space, literally and metaphorically, for children and architects to participate together. Identifying the qualities of the dialogic design space as potentially present in children’s and adults’ everyday cultures and interdependent relations, it is proposed that this dialogical framework might diversify architects’ and children’s roles in the design process and enrich practices and perceptions of design participation