Multi-decadal increase of forest burned area in Australia is linked to climate change

Fire activity in Australia is strongly affected by high inter-annual climate variability and extremes. Through changes in the climate, anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter fire dynamics. Here we compile satellite (19 and 32 years) and ground-based (90 years) burned area datasets, climate and weather observations, and simulated fuel loads for Australian forests. Burned area in Australia’s forests shows a linear positive annual trend but an exponential increase during autumn and winter. The mean number of years since the last fire has decreased consecutively in each of the past four decades, while the frequency of forest megafire years (>1 Mha burned) has markedly increased since 2000. The increase in forest burned area is consistent with increasingly more dangerous fire weather conditions, increased risk factors associated with pyroconvection, including fire-generated thunderstorms, and increased ignitions from dry lightning, all associated to varying degrees with anthropogenic climate change

How do leaf and ecosystem measures of water-use efficiency compare?

The terrestrial carbon and water cycles are intimately linked: the carbon cycle is driven by photosynthesis, while the water balance is dominated by transpiration, and both fluxes are controlled by plant stomatal conductance. The ratio between these fluxes, the plant wateruse efficiency (WUE), is a useful indicator of vegetation function. WUE can be estimated using several techniques, including leaf gas exchange, stable isotope discrimination, and eddy covariance. Here we compare global compilations of data for each of these three techniques. We show that patterns of variation in WUE across plant functional types (PFTs) are not consistent among the three datasets. Key discrepancies include the following: leaf-scale data indicate differences between needleleaf and broadleaf forests, but ecosystem-scale data do not; leaf-scale data indicate differences between C3 and C4 species, whereas at ecosystem scale there is a difference between C3 and C4 crops but not grasslands; and isotope-based estimates of WUE are higher than estimates based on gas exchange for most PFTs. Our study quantifies the uncertainty associated with different methods of measuring WUE, indicates potential for bias when using WUE measures to parameterize or validate models, and indicates key research directions needed to reconcile alternative measures of WUE

Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020

The Amazon is the largest continuous tropical forest in the world and plays a key role in the global carbon cycle. Human-induced disturbances and climate change have impacted the Amazon carbon balance. Here we conduct a comprehensive synthesis of existing state-of-the-art estimates of the contemporary land carbon fluxes in the Amazon using a set of bottom-up methods (i.e., dynamic vegetation models and bookkeeping models) and a top-down inversion (atmospheric inversion model) over the Brazilian Amazon and the whole Biogeographical Amazon domain. Over the whole biogeographical Amazon region bottom-up methodologies suggest a small average carbon sink over 2010-2020, in contrast to a small carbon source simulated by top-down inversion (2010-2018). However, these estimates are not significantly different from one another when accounting for their large individual uncertainties, highlighting remaining knowledge gaps, and the urgent need to reduce such uncertainties. Nevertheless, both methodologies agreed that the Brazilian Amazon has been a net carbon source during recent climate extremes and that the south-eastern Amazon was a net land carbon source over the whole study period (2010-2020). Overall, our results point to increasing human-induced disturbances (deforestation and forest degradation by wildfires) and reduction in the old-growth forest sink during drought

Global carbon budget 2022

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1% relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1±0.5GtCyr-1 (9.9±0.5GtCyr-1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1±0.7GtCyr-1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9±0.8GtCyr-1 (40.0±2.9GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2±0.2GtCyr-1 (2.5±0.1ppmyr-1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ±0.4GtCyr-1, and SLAND was 3.5±0.9GtCyr-1, with a BIM of -0.6GtCyr-1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71±0.1ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0% (0.1% to 1.9%) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2ppm, more than 50% above pre-industrial levels (around 278ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2021, but discrepancies of up to 1GtCyr-1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at 10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b)

The response of ecosystem water-use efficiency to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations : sensitivity and large-scale biogeochemical implications

Ecosystem water-use efficiency (WUE) is an important metric linking the global land carbon and water cycles. Eddy covariance-based estimates of WUE in temperate/boreal forests have recently been found to show a strong and unexpected increase over the 1992-2010 period, which has been attributed to the effects of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations on plant physiology. To test this hypothesis, we forced the observed trend in the process-based land surface model JSBACH by increasing the sensitivity of stomatal conductance (gs) to atmospheric CO2 concentration. We compared the simulated continental discharge, evapotranspiration (ET), and the seasonal CO2 exchange with observations across the extratropical northern hemisphere. The increased simulated WUE led to substantial changes in surface hydrology at the continental scale, including a significant decrease in ET and a significant increase in continental runoff, both of which are inconsistent with large-scale observations. The simulated seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 decreased over time, in contrast to the observed upward trend across ground-based measurement sites. Our results provide strong indications that the recent, large-scale WUE trend is considerably smaller than that estimated for these forest ecosystems. They emphasize the decreasing CO2 sensitivity of WUE with increasing scale, which affects the physiological interpretation of changes in ecosystem WUE

Coupling Water and Carbon Fluxes to Constrain Estimates of Transpiration: The TEA Algorithm

Plant transpiration (T), biologically controlled movement of water from soil to atmosphere, currently lacks sufficient estimates in space and time to characterize global ecohydrology. Here we describe the Transpiration Estimation Algorithm (TEA), which uses both the signals of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration (ET) to estimate temporal patterns of water use efficiency (WUE, i.e., the ratio between gross primary productivity and T) from which T is calculated. The method first isolates periods when T is most likely to dominate ET. Then, a Random Forest Regressor is trained on WUE within the filtered periods and can thus estimate WUE and T at every time step. Performance of the method is validated using terrestrial biosphere model output as synthetic flux data sets, that is, flux data where WUE dynamics are encoded in the model structure and T is known. TEA reproduced temporal patterns of T with modeling efficiencies above 0.8 for all three models: JSBACH, MuSICA, and CASTANEA. Algorithm output is robust to data set noise but shows some sensitivity to sites and model structures with relatively constant evaporation levels, overestimating values of T while still capturing temporal patterns. The ability to capture between-site variability in the fraction of T to total ET varied by model, with root-mean-square error values between algorithm predicted and modeled T/ET ranging from 3% to 15% depending on the model. TEA provides a widely applicable method for estimating WUE while requiring minimal data and/or knowledge on physiology which can complement and inform the current understanding of underlying processes

Coupling water and carbon fluxes to constrain estimates of transpiration : the TEA algorithm

Plant transpiration (T), biologically controlled movement of water from soil to atmosphere, currently lacks sufficient estimates in space and time to characterize global ecohydrology. Here we describe the Transpiration Estimation Algorithm (TEA), which uses both the signals of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration (ET) to estimate temporal patterns of water use efficiency (WUE, i.e., the ratio between gross primary productivity and T) from which T is calculated. The method first isolates periods when T is most likely to dominate ET. Then, a Random Forest Regressor is trained on WUE within the filtered periods and can thus estimate WUE and T at every time step. Performance of the method is validated using terrestrial biosphere model output as synthetic flux data sets, that is, flux data where WUE dynamics are encoded in the model structure and T is known. TEA reproduced temporal patterns of T with modeling efficiencies above 0.8 for all three models: JSBACH, MuSICA, and CASTANEA. Algorithm output is robust to data set noise but shows some sensitivity to sites and model structures with relatively constant evaporation levels, overestimating values of T while still capturing temporal patterns. The ability to capture between-site variability in the fraction of T to total ET varied by model, with root-mean-square error values between algorithm predicted and modeled T/ET ranging from 3% to 15% depending on the model. TEA provides a widely applicable method for estimating WUE while requiring minimal data and/or knowledge on physiology which can complement and inform the current understanding of underlying processes

Effects of mesophyll conductance on vegetation responses to elevated CO2 concentrations in a land surface model

Mesophyll conductance (gm) is known to affect plant photosynthesis. However, gm is rarely explicitly considered in land surface models (LSMs), with the consequence that its role in ecosystem and large-scale carbon and water fluxes is poorly understood. In particular, the different magnitudes of gm across plant functional types (PFTs) are expected to cause spatially divergent vegetation responses to elevated CO2 concentrations. Here, an extensive literature compilation of gm across major vegetation types is used to parameterize an empirical model of gm in the LSM JSBACH and to adjust photosynthetic parameters based on simulated An −Ci curves. We demonstrate that an explicit representation of gm changes the response of photosynthesis to environmental factors, which cannot be entirely compensated by adjusting photosynthetic parameters. These altered responses lead to changes in the photosynthetic sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 concentrations which depend both on the magnitude of gm and the climatic conditions, particularly temperature. We then conducted simulations under ambient and elevated (ambient + 200 μmol/mol) CO2 concentrations for contrasting ecosystems and for historical and anticipated future climate conditions (representative concentration pathways; RCPs) globally. The gm -explicit simulations using the RCP8.5 scenario resulted in significantly higher increases in gross primary productivity (GPP) in high latitudes (+10% to + 25%), intermediate increases in temperate regions (+5% to + 15%), and slightly lower to moderately higher responses in tropical regions (−2% to +5%), which summed up to moderate GPP increases globally. Similar patterns were found for transpiration, but with a lower magnitude. Our results suggest that the effect of an explicit representation of gm is most important for simulated carbon and water fluxes in the boreal zone, where a cold climate coincides with evergreen vegetation

How do leaf and ecosystem measures of water-use efficiency compare?

The terrestrial carbon and water cycles are intimately linked: the carbon cycle is driven by photosynthesis, while the water balance is dominated by transpiration, and both fluxes are controlled by plant stomatal conductance. The ratio between these fluxes, the plant water-use efficiency (WUE), is a useful indicator of vegetation function. WUE can be estimated using several techniques, including leaf gas exchange, stable isotope discrimination, and eddy covariance. Here we compare global compilations of data for each of these three techniques. We show that patterns of variation in WUE across plant functional types (PFTs) are not consistent among the three datasets. Key discrepancies include the following: leaf-scale data indicate differences between needleleaf and broadleaf forests, but ecosystem-scale data do not; leaf-scale data indicate differences between C3 and C4 species, whereas at ecosystem scale there is a difference between C3 and C4 crops but not grasslands; and isotope-based estimates of WUE are higher than estimates based on gas exchange for most PFTs. Our study quantifies the uncertainty associated with different methods of measuring WUE, indicates potential for bias when using WUE measures to parameterize or validate models, and indicates key research directions needed to reconcile alternative measures of WUE.This work was funded by ARC Discovery Grant DP12010405