Effects of choice of baseline on the uncertainty of population and biodiversity indices

Many monitoring programs provide annual indices of relative change over time in some quantitative measure of ecological status, such as population abundance or species richness. These indices are usually scaled relative to a reference year so that they represent change in ecological status compared to this particular year. An issue with this approach is that uncertainty about ecological status in the reference year can propagate into large uncertainty in all other index values. Taking instead the mean of the ecological status over several years as the reference-a reference period-may reduce uncertainty in indices. At present, this approach is not commonly used in practice. I quantitatively evaluate how the choice of reference period affects the uncertainty of two variants of population indices, either estimated independently each year or smoothed over several years, for 100 bird species using monitoring data. Short reference periods containing years early in the series lead to reduced uncertainty in independently estimated index values, but not in smoothed indices, compared to when using a single reference year. When a long reference period was used, uncertainty was substantially reduced for independently estimated annual indices in particular, but also for smoothed indices. An exception to the reduction in uncertainty with the length of the reference period was found when indices are constrained to be log-linear. Given an appropriate model and indices that are not strictly log-linear, using smoothing and/or reference the periods can be useful ways of reducing irrelevant uncertainty in the presentation of indices

Role of weather and other factors in the dynamics of a low-density insect population

Insect population dynamics are the result of an interplay between intrinsic factors such as density dependence, trophic web interactions, and external forces such as weather conditions. We investigate potential mechanisms of population dynamics in a natural, low-density insect population. Eggs and larvae of the noctuid moth, Abrostola asclepiadis, develop on its host plant during summer. The population density, and mortality, was closely monitored throughout this period during 15 years. Densities fluctuated between one and two orders of magnitude. Egg-larval developmental time varied substantially among years, with lower survival in cool summers with slower development. This was presumably due to the prolonged exposure to a large guild of polyphagous arthropod enemies. We also found a density-dependent component during this period that could be a result of intraspecific competition for food among the last larval instars. Dynamics during the long period from pupation in late summer through winter survival in the ground to adult emergence and oviposition the next year displayed few clear patterns and more unexplained variability, thus giving a more random appearance. The population hence shows more unexplained or unpredictable variation during the long wintering period, but seems more predictable over the summer egg-larval period. Our study illustrates how weather-via a window of exposure to enemies and in combination with density-dependent processes-can determine the course of population change through the insect life cycle

Individual heterogeneity and senescence in Silvereyes on Heron Island

Individual heterogeneity and correlations between life history traits play a fundamental role in life history evolution and population dynamics. Unobserved individual heterogeneity in survival can be a nuisance for estimation of age effects at the individual level by causing bias due to mortality selection. We jointly analyze survival and breeding output from successful breeding attempts in an island population of Silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus) by fitting models that incorporate age effects and individual heterogeneity via random effects. The number of offspring produced increased with age of parents in their first years of life but then eventually declined with age. A similar pattern was found for the probability of successful breeding. Annual survival declined with age even when individual heterogeneity was not accounted for. The rate of senescence in survival, however, depends on the variance of individual heterogeneity and vice versa; hence, both cannot be simultaneously estimated with precision. Model selection supported individual heterogeneity in breeding performance, but we found no correlation between individual heterogeneity in survival and breeding performance. We argue that individual random effects, unless unambiguously identified, should be treated as statistical nuisance or taken as a starting point in a search for mechanisms rather than given direct biological interpretation

Partitioning variance in population growth for models with environmental and demographic stochasticity

How demographic factors lead to variation or change in growth rates can be investigated using life table response experiments (LTRE) based on structured population models. Traditionally, LTREs focused on decomposing the asymptotic growth rate, but more recently decompositions of annual 'realized' growth rates using ' transient' LTREs have gained in popularity.Transient LTREs have been used particularly to understand how variation in vital rates translate into variation in growth for populations under long-term study. For these, complete population models may be constructed to investigate how temporal variation in environmental drivers affect vital rates. Such investigations have usually come down to estimating covariate coefficients for the effects of environmental variables on vital rates, but formal ways of assessing how they lead to variation in growth rates have been lacking.We extend transient LTREs to further partition the contributions from vital rates into contributions from temporally varying factors that affect them. The decomposition allows one to compare the resultant effect on the growth rate of different environmental factors, as well as density dependence, which may each act via multiple vital rates. We also show how realized growth rates can be decomposed into separate components from environmental and demographic stochasticity. The latter is typically omitted in LTRE analyses.We illustrate these extensions with an integrated population model (IPM) for data from a 26 years study on northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe), a migratory passerine bird breeding in an agricultural landscape. For this population, consisting of around 50-120 breeding pairs per year, we partition variation in realized growth rates into environmental contributions from temperature, rainfall, population density and unexplained random variation via multiple vital rates, and from demographic stochasticity.The case study suggests that variation in first year survival via the unexplained random component, and adult survival via temperature are two main factors behind environmental variation in growth rates. More than half of the variation i

Community associations of birds with amphibians and fish in wetlands created for biodiversity

Conservation initiatives to support declining water-related biodiversity through wetland creation have increased during the last decades. Multiple studies have evaluated the suitability of created wetlands for birds and amphibians, but only a few have considered the species associations that might also affect the outcome. Using joint species distribution models, we explored species associations of birds, amphibians and fish in 52 created biodiversity wetlands in Sweden. As most of these wetlands were primarily created for increasing bird diversity, we asked whether the occurrence of fish and amphibians relates to bird species richness, pair abundance and chick abundance (as a measure of reproductive success) and whether conservation conflicts or synergies between birds, amphibians and fish can be observed. In general, we found positive bird-amphibian association patterns and negative bird-fish association patterns, although the uncertainties were high for these estimates. In line with previous research, the generally negative bird-fish co-variance indicates potential conservation conflicts between wetland creation for birds and fish, where fish might be introduced for recreational fishing or other ecosystem services. Therefore, our results suggest that it can be hard to benefit bird and fish communities with the same wetland, and separate wetland creation with different goals may be needed. The generally positive birdamphibian species-species associations and the lack of previous studies revealing conflicts indicate synergies between wetland creation for birds and amphibians. However, research needs to further consolidate such synergies, including amphibian reproductive output from bird-rich wetlands

Are the declining trends in forest grouse populations due to changes in the forest age structure? : A case study of Capercaillie in Finland

Peer reviewe

Quantifying effects of wetland restorations on bird communities in agricultural landscapes

Restoring wetlands to improve habitats for birds has become an important conservation tool as many wetlands have deteriorated and wetland bird populations declined. To what extent such restorations are effective is not well known because surveys usually either lack data before the restoration or means of correcting for background population trends. We identified wetland restorations made in agricultural landscapes in Sweden and retrieved all available Before-After survey data of breeding birds. From the resulting heterogeneous surveys, we quantified the effectiveness of restorations for eight bird groups comprising 72 bird species from 30 wetlands. We used national survey data to correct for background population trends. We estimated that island breeder populations have increased by between 62 % and 315 % (95 % confidence intervals) following restorations. Deep water foragers, shallow water foragers and short meadow breeders also mainly increased following restoration. The direction of effect was uncertain for tall meadow breeders, reed breeders and predators. Shrubland breeder populations declined between-55 % and-4 % following restorations. While restoration measures seemed to generally benefit about half of the breeding wetland bird community, estimated species-and site-specific re-sponses varied greatly and were associated with large uncertainty. Such heterogeneity in responses can arise due to biotic and abiotic interactions, varying management actions and survey methods between wetlands. Thus, to improve the effectiveness of future wetland restorations, funding bodies and environmental agencies should require standardised Before-After bird surveys at both restored and non-restored reference sites. Such improved survey designs would facilitate the development of more efficient restoration efforts

Why we should care about movements: Using spatially explicit integrated population models to assess habitat source-sink dynamics

Assessing the source-sink status of populations and habitats is of major importance for understanding population dynamics and for the management of natural populations. Sources produce a net surplus of individuals (per capita contribution to the metapopulation > 1) and will be the main contributors for self-sustaining populations, whereas sinks produce a deficit (contribution < 1). However, making these types of assessments is generally hindered by the problem of separating mortality from permanent emigration, especially when survival probabilities as well as moved distances are habitat-specific. To address this long-standing issue, we propose a spatial multi-event integrated population model (IPM) that incorporates habitat-specific dispersal distances of individuals. Using information about local movements, this IPM adjusts survival estimates for emigration outside the study area. Analysing 24 years of data on a farmland passerine (the northern wheatearOenanthe oenanthe), we assessed habitat-specific contributions, and hence the source-sink status and temporal variation of two key breeding habitats, while accounting for habitat- and sex-specific local dispersal distances of juveniles and adults. We then examined the sensitivity of the source-sink analysis by comparing results with and without accounting for these local movements. Estimates of first-year survival, and consequently habitat-specific contributions, were higher when local movement data were included. The consequences from including movement data were sex specific, with contribution shifting from sink to likely source in one habitat for males, and previously noted habitat differences for females disappearing. Assessing the source-sink status of habitats is extremely challenging. We show that our spatial IPM accounting for local movements can reduce biases in estimates of the contribution by different habitats, and thus reduce the overestimation of the occurrence of sink habitats. This approach allows combining all available data on demographic rates and movements, which will allow better assessment of source-sink dynamics and better informed conservation interventions

Cannot see the diversity for all the species: Evaluating inclusion criteria for local species lists when using abundant citizen science data

Abundant citizen science data on species occurrences are becoming increasingly available and enable identifying composition of communities occurring at multiple sites with high temporal resolution. However, for species displaying temporary patterns of local occurrences that are transient to some sites, biodiversity measures are clearly dependent on the criteria used to include species into local species lists. Using abundant opportunistic citizen science data from frequently visited wetlands, we investigated the sensitivity of alpha- and beta-diversity estimates to the use raw versus detection-corrected data and to the use of inclusion criteria for species presence reflecting alternative site use. We tested seven inclusion criteria (with varying number of days required to be present) on time series of daily occurrence status during a breeding season of 90 days for 77 wetland bird species. We show that even when opportunistic presence-only observation data are abundant, raw data may not produce reliable local species richness estimates and rank sites very differently in terms of species richness. Furthermore, occupancy model based alpha- and beta-diversity estimates were sensitive to the inclusion criteria used. Total species lists (all species observed at least once during a season) may therefore mask diversity differences among sites in local communities of species, by including vagrant species on potentially breeding communities and change the relative rank order of sites in terms of species richness. Very high sampling effort does not necessarily free opportunistic data from its inherent bias and can produce a pattern in which many species are observed at least once almost everywhere, thus leading to a possible paradox: The large amount of biological information may hinder its usefulness. Therefore, when prioritizing among sites to manage or preserve species diversity estimates need to be carefully related to relevant inclusion criteria depending on the diversity estimate in focus

Spatio-temporal patterns of crop damage caused by geese, swans and cranes-Implications for crop damage prevention

European populations of geese, swans and cranes have increased considerably since the 1970s raising conflicts between conservation and farming interests. Crop damage caused by geese, swans and cranes across the national scale needs a trans-boundary approach that captures the site-specific characteristics of crop damage at a more refined spatial scale, to deal with the high spatio-temporal variation inherent in the system and to avoid conflict displacement. In the present study we use long-term crop damage data (2000-2015) in Sweden to evaluate seasonal and annual patterns of crop damage. We show that crop damage increased over years but followed a fairly consistent seasonal pattern during the later parts of the study period. We show how these seasonal patterns differ across the country such that trans-boundary regions with similar patterns of crop damage, relating to different nuisance species and damaged crops, can be identified. These findings about spatio-temporal variation of damage can be used to find appropriate scales of management units (e.g. areas with similar conditions), and to adapt damage mitigation strategies to temporal and spatial-specific conditions, e.g. guidance of when and where certain crop may be suitable as sacrificial crops