Potential of the Coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro Modeling System for Flood Forecasting in the Ouémé River (West Africa)

Since the beginning of the 2000s, most of the West-African countries, particularly Benin, have experienced an increased frequency of extreme flood events. In this study, we focus on the case of the Ouémé river basin in Benin. To investigate flood events in this basin for early warning, the coupled atmosphere–hydrology model system WRF-Hydro is used, and analyzed for the period 2008–2010. Such a coupled model allows exploration of the contribution of atmospheric components into the flood event, and its ability to simulate and predict accurate streamflow. The potential of WRF-Hydro to correctly simulate streamflow in the Ouémé river basin is assessed by forcing the model with operational analysis datasets from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Atmospheric and land surface processes are resolved at a spatial resolution of 5 km. The additional surface and subsurface water flow routing are computed at a resolution of 500 m. Key parameters of the hydrological module of WRF-Hydro are calibrated offline and tested online with the coupled WRF-Hydro. The uncertainty of atmospheric modeling on coupled results is assessed with the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS). WRF-Hydro is able to simulate the discharge in the Ouémé river in offline and fully coupled modes with a Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) around 0.70 and 0.76, respectively. In the fully coupled mode, the model captures the flood event that occurred in 2010. A stochastic perturbation ensemble of ten members for three rain seasons shows that the coupled model performance in terms of KGE ranges from 0.14 to 0.79. Additionally, an assessment of the soil moisture has been developed. This ability to realistically reproduce observed discharge in the Ouémé river basin demonstrates the potential of the coupled WRF-Hydro modeling system for future flood forecasting applications

Classification of large-scale environments that drive the formation of mesoscale convective systems over southern West Africa

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are frequently observed over southern West Africa (SWA) throughout most of the year. These MCS events are the dominant rain-bearing systems, contributing over 50 % of annual rainfall over SWA. However, it has not yet been identified what variations in typical large-scale environments of the seasonal cycle of the West African monsoon may favour MCS occurrence in this region. Here, nine distinct synoptic states are identified and are further associated with being a synoptic-circulation type of either a dry, transition, or monsoon season using self-organizing maps (SOMs) with inputs from reanalysis data. We identified a pronounced annual cycle of MCS numbers with frequency peaks in April and October that can be associated with the start of rainfall during the major rainy season and the maximum rainfall for the minor rainy season across SWA, respectively. Comparing daily MCS frequencies, MCSs are most likely to develop during transition conditions featuring a northward-displaced moisture anomaly (2.8 MCSs per day), which can be linked to strengthened low-level westerlies. Considering that these transition conditions occur predominantly during the pre- and post-monsoon period, these patterns may in some cases be representative of monsoon onset conditions or a delayed monsoon retreat. On the other hand, under monsoon conditions, we observe weakened low-level south-westerlies during MCS days, which reduce moisture content over the Sahel but introduce more moisture over the coast. Finally, we find a majority of MCS-day synoptic states exhibiting positive zonal wind shear anomalies. Seasons with the strongest zonal wind shear anomalies are associated with the strongest low-level temperature anomalies to the north of SWA, highlighting that a warmer Sahel can promote MCS-favourable conditions in SWA. Overall, the SOM-identified synoptic states converge towards high-moisture and high-shear conditions on MCS days in SWA, where the frequency at which these conditions occur depends on the synoptic state.</p

Preparing for low surface brightness science with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory:Characterization of tidal features from mock images

Tidal features in the outskirts of galaxies yield unique information about their past interactions and are a key prediction of the hierarchical structure formation paradigm. The Vera C. Rubin Observatory is poised to deliver deep observations for potentially millions of objects with visible tidal features, but the inference of galaxy interaction histories from such features is not straightforward. Utilizing automated techniques and human visual classification in conjunction with realistic mock images produced using the NewHorizon cosmological simulation, we investigate the nature, frequency, and visibility of tidal features and debris across a range of environments and stellar masses. In our simulated sample, around 80 per cent of the flux in the tidal features around Milky Way or greater mass galaxies is detected at the 10-yr depth of the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (30-31 mag arcsec-2), falling to 60 per cent assuming a shallower final depth of 29.5 mag arcsec-2. The fraction of total flux found in tidal features increases towards higher masses, rising to 10 per cent for the most massive objects in our sample (M* ∼1011.5 M⊙). When observed at sufficient depth, such objects frequently exhibit many distinct tidal features with complex shapes. The interpretation and characterization of such features varies significantly with image depth and object orientation, introducing significant biases in their classification. Assuming the data reduction pipeline is properly optimized, we expect the Rubin Observatory to be capable of recovering much of the flux found in the outskirts of Milky Way mass galaxies, even at intermediate redshifts (z < 0.2)

Preparing for low surface brightness science with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory: characterisation of tidal features from mock images

Tidal features in the outskirts of galaxies yield unique information about their past interactions and are a key prediction of the hierarchical structure formation paradigm. The Vera C. Rubin Observatory is poised to deliver deep observations for potentially of millions of objects with visible tidal features, but the inference of galaxy interaction histories from such features is not straightforward. Utilising automated techniques and human visual classification in conjunction with realistic mock images produced using the NEWHORIZON cosmological simulation, we investigate the nature, frequency and visibility of tidal features and debris across a range of environments and stellar masses. In our simulated sample, around 80 per cent of the flux in the tidal features around Milky Way or greater mass galaxies is detected at the 10-year depth of the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (30-31 mag / sq. arcsec), falling to 60 per cent assuming a shallower final depth of 29.5 mag / sq. arcsec. The fraction of total flux found in tidal features increases towards higher masses, rising to 10 per cent for the most massive objects in our sample (M*~10^{11.5} Msun). When observed at sufficient depth, such objects frequently exhibit many distinct tidal features with complex shapes. The interpretation and characterisation of such features varies significantly with image depth and object orientation, introducing significant biases in their classification. Assuming the data reduction pipeline is properly optimised, we expect the Rubin Observatory to be capable of recovering much of the flux found in the outskirts of Milky Way mass galaxies, even at intermediate redshifts (z<0.2)

Recent trends in the daily rainfall regime in Southern West Africa

Extreme climate events, either being linked to dry spells or extreme precipitation, are of major concern in Africa, a region in which the economy and population are highly vulnerable to climate hazards. However, recent trends in climate events are not often documented in this poorly surveyed continent. This study makes use of a large set of daily rain gauge data covering Southern West Africa (extending from 10 degrees W to 10 degrees E and from 4 degrees N to 12 degrees N) from 1950 to 2014. The evolution of the number and the intensity of daily rainfall events, especially the most extremes, were analyzed at the annual and seasonal scales. During the first rainy season (April-July), mean annual rainfall is observed to have a minor trend due to less frequent but more intense rainfall mainly along the coast of Southern West Africa (SWA) over the last two decades. The north-south seasonal changes exhibit an increase in mean annual rainfall over the last decade during the second rainy season (September-November) linked by both an increase in the frequency of occurrence of rainy days as well as an increase in the mean intensity and extreme events over the last decade. The study also provides evidence of a disparity that exists between the west and east of SWA, with the east recording a stronger increase in the mean intensity of wet days and extreme rainfall during the second rainy season (September-November)

Daily characteristics of West African summer monsoon precipitation in CORDEX simulations

We analyze and intercompare the performance of a set of ten regional climate models (RCMs) along with the ensemble mean of their statistics in simulating daily precipitation characteristics during the West African monsoon (WAM) period (June-July-August-September). The experiments are conducted within the framework of the COordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments for the African domain. We find that the RCMs exhibit substantial differences that are associated with a wide range of estimates of higher-order statistics, such as intensity, frequency, and daily extremes mostly driven by the convective scheme employed. For instance, a number of the RCMs simulate a similar number of wet days compared to observations but greater rainfall intensity, especially in oceanic regions adjacent to the Guinea Highlands because of a larger number of heavy precipitation events. Other models exhibit a higher wet-day frequency but much lower rainfall intensity over West Africa due to the occurrence of less frequent heavy rainfall events. This indicates the existence of large uncertainties related to the simulation of daily rainfall characteristics by the RCMs. The ensemble mean of the indices substantially improves the RCMs' simulated frequency and intensity of precipitation events, moderately outperforms that of the 95th percentile, and provides mixed benefits for the dry and wet spells. Although the ensemble mean improved results cannot be generalized, such an approach produces encouraging results and can help, to some extent, to improve the robustness of the response of the WAM daily precipitation to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming

Development in astronomy and space science in Africa

The development of astronomy and space science in Africa has grown significantly over the past few years. These advancements make the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals more achievable, and open up the possibility of new beneficial collaborations.Comment: Paper published in Nature Astronomy. Figures 1 and 2 are included in the published version, that can be seen at https://rdcu.be/2oE