Monthly mean simulation experiments with a course-mesh global atmospheric model

Substitution of observed monthly mean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) as lower boundary conditions, in place of climatological SSTs, failed to improve the model simulations. While the impact of SST anomalies on the model output is greater at sea level than at upper levels the impact on the monthly mean simulations is not beneficial at any level. Shifts of one and two days in initialization time produced small, but non-trivial, changes in the model-generated monthly mean synoptic fields. No improvements in the mean simulations resulted from the use of either time-averaged initial data or re-initialization with time-averaged early model output. The noise level of the model, as determined from a multiple initial state perturbation experiment, was found to be generally low, but with a noisier response to initial state errors in high latitudes than the tropics

Advanced evaluation of vacuum UV detector- spectroscopy systems for capsule reentry measurements

Vacuum ultraviolet detector evaluation - spectroscopy systems for capsule reentry measurement

The Anticipated Severity of a “1918-Like” Influenza Pandemic in Contemporary Populations: The Contribution of Antibacterial Interventions

Recent studies have shown that most of deaths in the 1918 influenza pandemic were caused by secondary bacterial infections, primarily pneumococcal pneumonia. Given the availability of antibiotics and pneumococcal vaccination, how will contemporary populations fare when they are next confronted with pandemic influenza due to a virus with the transmissibility and virulence of that of 1918? To address this question we use a mathematical model and computer simulations. Our model considers the epidemiology of both the influenza virus and pneumonia-causing bacteria and allows for co-infection by these two agents as well as antibiotic treatment, prophylaxis and pneumococcal vaccination. For our simulations we use influenza transmission and virulence parameters estimated from 1918 pandemic data. We explore the anticipated rates of secondary pneumococcal pneumonia and death in populations with different prevalence of pneumococcal carriage and contributions of antibiotic prophylaxis, treatment, and vaccination to these rates. Our analysis predicts that in countries with lower prevalence of pneumococcal carriage and access to antibiotics and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, there would substantially fewer deaths due to pneumonia in contemporary populations confronted with a 1918-like virus than that observed in the 1918. Our results also predict that if the pneumococcal carriage prevalence is less than 40%, the positive effects of antibiotic prophylaxis and treatment would be manifest primarily at of level of individuals. These antibiotic interventions would have little effect on the incidence of pneumonia in the population at large. We conclude with the recommendation that pandemic preparedness plans should consider co-infection with and the prevalence of carriage of pneumococci and other bacteria responsible for pneumonia. While antibiotics and vaccines will certainly reduce the rate of individual mortality, the factor contributing most to the relatively lower anticipated lethality of a pandemic with a 1918-like influenza virus in contemporary population is the lower prevalence of pneumococcal carriage

Use of Procalcitonin and C-Reactive Protein to Evaluate Vaccine Efficacy against Pneumonia

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia remains the leading cause of death in young children. The poor specificity of chest radiographs (CXRs) to diagnose pneumococcal pneumonia may underestimate the efficacy of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in preventing pneumococcal pneumonia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The efficacy of nine-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine among children not infected with HIV (21%; 95% confidence interval, 1%–37%) increased when CXR-confirmed pneumonia was associated with serum C-reactive protein of 120 mg/l (12mg/dl) or more and procalcitonin of 5.0 ng/ml or more (64%; 95% confidence interval, 23%–83%). Similar results were observed in children infected with HIV. CONCLUSION: C-reactive protein and procalcitonin improve the specificity of CXR to diagnose pneumococcal pneumonia and may be useful for the future evaluation of the effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in preventing pneumococcal pneumonia

Impact of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in a pandemic similar to the 2009 H1N1 in the United States

Background: High rates of bacterial coinfection in autopsy data from the 2009 H1N1 influenza (“flu”) pandemic suggest synergies between flu and pneumococcal disease (PD) during pandemic conditions, and highlight the importance of interventions like the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) that may mitigate the impact of a pandemic. Methods: We used a decision-analytic model, estimated from published sources, to assess the impact of pediatric vaccination with PCV13 versus the 7-valent vaccine (PCV7) on PD incidence and mortality in a normal flu season (10% flu incidence) and in a pandemic similar to 2009-2010 H1N1 (20% flu incidence, mild virulence, high impact in children). Both direct and indirect (herd) effects against PD were considered. Effectiveness of PCV13 was extrapolated from observed PCV7 data, using assumptions of serotype prevalence and PCV13 protection against the 6 serotypes not in PCV7. To simulate 2009–2010 H1N1, autopsy data were used to estimate the overall proportion of flu deaths with bacterial coinfections. By assuming that increased risk of death during the pandemic occurred among those with comorbidity (using obesity as proxy) and bacterial coinfections primarily due to S. pneumoniae or S. aureus, we estimated the proportion co-infected among all (fatal and non-fatal) flu cases (7.6% co-infected with any organism; 2.2% with S. pneumoniae). PD incidence, mortality, and total healthcare costs were evaluated over a 1-year horizon. Results: In a normal flu season, compared to PCV7, PCV13 is expected to prevent an additional 13,400 invasive PD (IPD) cases, 399,000 pneumonia cases, and 2,900 deaths, leading to cost savings of $472 M. In a pandemic similar to 2009–2010 H1N1, PCV13 would prevent 22,800 IPD cases, 872,000 pneumonia cases, and 3,700 deaths, resulting in cost savings of$1.0 B compared to PCV7. Conclusions: In a flu pandemic similar to the 2009–2010 H1N1, protection against the 6 additional serotypes in PCV13 would likely be effective in preventing pandemic-related PD cases, mortality, and associated costs

The Battle against Emerging Antibiotic Resistance: Should Fluoroquinolones Be Used to Treat Children?

Inappropriate use of antibiotic drugs in humans and animals has led to widespread resistance among microbial pathogens. Resistance is the phenotypic expression corresponding to genetic changes caused by either mutation or acquisition of new genetic information. In some cases, multidrug resistance occurs. Streptococcus pneumoniae is one of the most important respiratory pathogens, playing a major role in both upper and lower respiratory tract infections. Pneumococcal resistance to antimicrobials may be acquired by means of horizontal transfer followed by homologous recombination of genetic material from the normal flora of the human oral cavity or by means of mutation. Resistance to penicillins and macrolides has been increasing for some time, but, recently, fluoroquinolone resistance has become an issue as well. We are concerned that, if fluoroquinolones are approved for use in children, their widespread use will result in rapid emergence of pneumococcal resistance, because children are more often colonized in the nasopharynx with high-density populations of pneumococci than are adult

Pulmonary alveolar proteinosis in a child from an informal settlement : 12 litres of fluid drained from the lungs and successful use of ECMO

Pulmonary alveolar proteinosis (PAP) is a rare cause of chronic interstitial lung disease, characterised by accumulation of pulmonary surfactant, respiratory insufficiency and an increased incidence of infections. The current standard therapy is whole-lung lavage to remove the accumulated surfactant. We report on a cachexic 12-year-old boy from an informal settlement in South Africa, presenting for the first time with PAP. Twelve litres of broncho-alveolar lavage fluid were drained under extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, and the patient gained 10 kg during his 2-month admission.http://www.sajch.org.za/index.php/SAJCHam2014ay201