159 research outputs found
Toward a Taylor rule for fiscal policy
This paper presents a procedure to determine policy feedback rules in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. We illustrate our approach with fiscal feedback rules for tax instruments in a standard medium-scale DSGE model. First, we approximate the optimal dynamic behavior of the economy using simple linear feedback rules. Then we calculate the elasticities of the model variables' moments with respect to the feedback coefficients. The feedback coefficients associated with the highest elasticities form the policy feedback rules to be estimated. Our results stress the importance of carefully modeled fiscal tax policy in two dimensions: (i) with respect to the dynamic responses of fiscal policy to exogenous shocks and (ii) with respect to the historical shock decomposition of fiscal policy. --Fiscal policy,Bayesian model estimation,Identification
Implementable Fiscal Policy Rules
We use a novel procedure to identify fiscal feedback rules for the US: We start by estimating a DSGE model and on that basis compute the Ramsey optimal responses to structural shocks. Then we let the policy maker choose from a general set of rules to match the dynamic behavior of a number of key variables like output, debt, and consumption, in the competitive equilibrium with their corresponding dynamic behavior in the Ramsey equilibrium. In the next step we estimate the model again but employ the contingency derived previously. The policy rules derived are general, not as complex as Ramsey and easily implementable
Evidence For Mixed Helicity in Erupting Filaments
Erupting filaments are sometimes observed to undergo a rotation about the
vertical direction as they rise. This rotation of the filament axis is
generally interpreted as a conversion of twist into writhe in a kink-unstable
magnetic flux rope. Consistent with this interpretation, the rotation is
usually found to be clockwise (as viewed from above) if the post-eruption
arcade has right-handed helicity, but counterclockwise if it has left-handed
helicity. Here, we describe two non--active-region filament events recorded
with the Extreme-Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) on the {\it Solar and
Heliospheric Observatory} ({\it SOHO}), in which the sense of rotation appears
to be opposite to that expected from the helicity of the post-event arcade.
Based on these observations, we suggest that the rotation of the filament axis
is in general determined by the net helicity of the erupting system, and that
the axially aligned core of the filament can have the opposite helicity sign to
the surrounding field. In most cases, the surrounding field provides the main
contribution to the net helicity. In the events reported here, however, the
helicity associated with the filament ``barbs'' is opposite in sign to and
dominates that of the overlying arcade.Comment: ApJ, accepte
Photospheric flux cancellation and associated flux rope formation and eruption
We study an evolving bipolar active region that exhibits flux cancellation at
the internal polarity inversion line, the formation of a soft X-ray sigmoid
along the inversion line and a coronal mass ejection. The evolution of the
photospheric magnetic field is described and used to estimate how much flux is
reconnected into the flux rope. About one third of the active region flux
cancels at the internal polarity inversion line in the 2.5~days leading up to
the eruption. In this period, the coronal structure evolves from a weakly to a
highly sheared arcade and then to a sigmoid that crosses the inversion line in
the inverse direction. These properties suggest that a flux rope has formed
prior to the eruption. The amount of cancellation implies that up to 60% of the
active region flux could be in the body of the flux rope. We point out that
only part of the cancellation contributes to the flux in the rope if the arcade
is only weakly sheared, as in the first part of the evolution. This reduces the
estimated flux in the rope to or less of the active region flux. We
suggest that the remaining discrepancy between our estimate and the limiting
value of of the active region flux, obtained previously by the flux
rope insertion method, results from the incomplete coherence of the flux rope,
due to nonuniform cancellation along the polarity inversion line. A hot linear
feature is observed in the active region which rises as part of the eruption
and then likely traces out field lines close to the axis of the flux rope. The
flux cancellation and changing magnetic connections at one end of this feature
suggest that the flux rope reaches coherence by reconnection shortly before and
early in the impulsive phase of the associated flare. The sigmoid is destroyed
in the eruption but reforms within a few hours after a moderate amount of
further cancellation has occurred.Comment: Astron. Astrophys., in pres
A Parametric Study of Erupting Flux Rope Rotation. Modeling the "Cartwheel CME" on 9 April 2008
The rotation of erupting filaments in the solar corona is addressed through a
parametric simulation study of unstable, rotating flux ropes in bipolar
force-free initial equilibrium. The Lorentz force due to the external shear
field component and the relaxation of tension in the twisted field are the
major contributors to the rotation in this model, while reconnection with the
ambient field is of minor importance. Both major mechanisms writhe the flux
rope axis, converting part of the initial twist helicity, and produce rotation
profiles which, to a large part, are very similar in a range of shear-twist
combinations. A difference lies in the tendency of twist-driven rotation to
saturate at lower heights than shear-driven rotation. For parameters
characteristic of the source regions of erupting filaments and coronal mass
ejections, the shear field is found to be the dominant origin of rotations in
the corona and to be required if the rotation reaches angles of order 90
degrees and higher; it dominates even if the twist exceeds the threshold of the
helical kink instability. The contributions by shear and twist to the total
rotation can be disentangled in the analysis of observations if the rotation
and rise profiles are simultaneously compared with model calculations. The
resulting twist estimate allows one to judge whether the helical kink
instability occurred. This is demonstrated for the erupting prominence in the
"Cartwheel CME" on 9 April 2008, which has shown a rotation of \approx 115
degrees up to a height of 1.5 R_sun above the photosphere. Out of a range of
initial equilibria which include strongly kink-unstable (twist Phi=5pi), weakly
kink-unstable (Phi=3.5pi), and kink-stable (Phi=2.5pi) configurations, only the
evolution of the weakly kink-unstable flux rope matches the observations in
their entirety.Comment: Solar Physics, submitte
Age-related glomerulosclerosis and interstitial fibrosis in Milan normotensive rats: A podocyte disease
Age-related glomerulosclerosis and interstitial fibrosis in Milan normotensive rats: A podocyte disease. In Milan normotensive (MNS) rats glomerulosclerosis and interstitial fibrosis develop spontaneously in the absence of hypertension. Renal changes were sequentially assessed in these rats between 2 and 10 months of age. At 10 months, rats were characterized by heavy proteinuria, increased serum creatinine, focal or global glomerulosclerosis in 51 ± 12% of the glomeruli as well as tubulointerstitial injury involving > 25% of the section area. Cell injury in podocytes (evidenced as increased expression of desmin and by electron microscopy) and interstitial fibroblasts (increased expression of α-smooth muscle actin) and mild glomerular hypertrophy were witnessed as early as three to four months of age and preceded glomerulosclerosis and interstitial fibrosis. Only minor evidence of mesangial cell activation (as assessed by glomerular de novo α-smooth muscle actin or type I collagen expression or increased cell proliferation) was noted throughout the observation period. Later stages of the disease were characterized by glomerular and/or tubulointerstitial macrophage influx and osteopontin expression (a chemoattractant), mild accumulation of lymphocytes, platelets, fibrinogen, as well as by a progressive accumulation of various matrix proteins. Progressive renal disease in MNS rats is thus noteworthy for the relative lack of mesangial cell activation. Rather, early podocyte damage, induced by yet unknown mechanisms, may underlie the development of glomerulosclerosis and subsequent interstitial fibrosis
Klimaneutrale Industrie
KLIMANEUTRALE INDUSTRIE
Klimaneutrale Industrie / Altrock, Martin (Rights reserved) ( -
Triggering an eruptive flare by emerging flux in a solar active-region complex
A flare and fast coronal mass ejection originated between solar active
regions NOAA 11514 and 11515 on July 1, 2012 in response to flux emergence in
front of the leading sunspot of the trailing region 11515. Analyzing the
evolution of the photospheric magnetic flux and the coronal structure, we find
that the flux emergence triggered the eruption by interaction with overlying
flux in a non-standard way. The new flux neither had the opposite orientation
nor a location near the polarity inversion line, which are favorable for strong
reconnection with the arcade flux under which it emerged. Moreover, its flux
content remained significantly smaller than that of the arcade (approximately
40 %). However, a loop system rooted in the trailing active region ran in part
under the arcade between the active regions, passing over the site of flux
emergence. The reconnection with the emerging flux, leading to a series of jet
emissions into the loop system, caused a strong but confined rise of the loop
system. This lifted the arcade between the two active regions, weakening its
downward tension force and thus destabilizing the considerably sheared flux
under the arcade. The complex event was also associated with supporting
precursor activity in an enhanced network near the active regions, acting on
the large-scale overlying flux, and with two simultaneous confined flares
within the active regions.Comment: Accepted for publication in Topical Issue of Solar Physics: Solar and
Stellar Flares. 25 pages, 12 figure
Economic Policy Uncertainty, Trust and Inflation Expectations *
Abstract Theory and evidence suggest that in an environment of well-anchored expectations, temporary news or shocks to economic variables, should not affect agents' expectations of inflation in the long term. Our estimated structural VARs show that both longand short-term inflation expectations are sensible to policy-related uncertainty shocks. A rise of long-term inflation expectations in times of economic contraction, in response to such shocks, suggests that heightened policy uncertainty observed during the recent years indeed raises concerns about future inflation. Furthermore, both monetary and fiscal policy-related uncertainties are significant for the negative dynamics in citizens' trust in the ECB. JEL classification: E02, E31, E58, E63, P1
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