On Technical Bases and Surplus in Life Insurance

We revisit surplus on general life insurance contracts, represented by Markov models. We classify technical bases in terms of boundary conditions in Thiele's equation(s), allowing more general regulations than Scandinavian-style `first-order/second-order' regimes, and replacing the traditional retrospective policy value. We propose a `canonical' model with three technical bases (premium, valuation, accumulation) and show how each pair of bases defines premium loadings and surplus. Along with a `true' or `real-world' experience basis, this expands fundamental results of Ramlau-Hansen (1988a). We conclude with two applications: lapse-supported business; and the retrospectively-oriented regime proposed by M{\o}ller & Steffensen (2007).Comment: 33 pages, 4 Figure

Semiparametric Diffusion Estimation and Application to a Stock Market Model

The analysis of diffusion process in financial models is crucially dependent on the form of the drift and diffusion coefficient functions. A methodology is proposed for estimating and testing coefficient functions for ergodic diffusions that are not directly observable. It is based on semiparametric and nonparametric estimates. The testing is performed via the wild bootstrap resampling technique. The method is illustrated on S&P 500 index.diffusion; identification; continuous-time financial models; semi-parametric methods; kernel smoothing; bootstrap

Will genetic test results be monetized in life insurance?

If life insurers are not permitted to use genetic test results in underwriting, they may face adverse selection. It is sometimes claimed that applicants will choose abnormally high sums insured as a form of financial gamble, possibly financed by life settlement companies (LSCs). The latter possibility is given some credence by the recent experience of “stranger‐originated life insurance” (STOLI) in the United States. We examine these claims, and find them unconvincing for four reasons. First, apparently high mortality implies surprisingly high probabilities of surviving for decades, so the gamble faces long odds. Second, LSCs would have to adopt a different business model, involving much longer time horizons. Third, STOLI is being effectively dealt with by the U.S. courts. Fourth, the gamble would be predicated upon a deep understanding of the genetic epidemiology, which is evolving, subject to uncertain biases, and cannot predict the emergence of effective treatments

Testing continuous time models in financial markets

Das Ziel der Dissertation ist die Entwicklung statistischer Testverfahren zur Überprüfung parametrischer Modelle für die Dynamik zeitstetiger Prozesse und die Anwendung der entwickelten Methoden auf Finanzmarktdaten. Besonderes Augenmerk wird auf die statistische Methodik und die Untersuchung der Testeigenschaften in endlichen Stichproben gelegt, da diese in empirischen Untersuchungen von entscheidener Bedeutung sind. Alle Kapitel der Dissertation umfassen eine empirische Analyse, in der die vorgestellten Tests auf Finanzmarktdaten angewandt werden.The aim of the thesis is to provide a wide range of statistical methods designed to test parametric assumptions about the evolution of continuous time processes in financial markets. The main focus is on the statistical methodology and the investigation of the properties of the proposed methods when applied to finite samples. The latter aspect is particularly important for empirical applications. All chapters include an empirical analysis of financial data using the developed methods

Client/Server based Statistical Computing

We propose a client server architecture for statistical computing. The main feature of our approach is the possibility to connect various client programs via a TCP/IP connection to a powerful statistical engine. This offers the opportunity to include the statistical engine into a number of software packages and to empower the user of these packages to access a modern statistical programming environment. It also allows for the development of specialized client programs for particular tasks. TCP/IP permits a client/server connection with the client and server running on different hosts (remote host) as well as running both applications on the same computer (local host). To have a large flexibility we suggest adding a middleware program managing the communication between Server and Client. This avoids the need to implement TCP/IP communication methods on the server side. The paper provides an overview of the desired environment and illustrates the general structure by the implementation of the XploRe Quantlet Client and XploRe Quantlet Server

A common age effect model for the mortality of multiple populations

AbstractWe introduce a model for the mortality rates of multiple populations. To build the proposed model we investigate to what extent a common age effect can be found among the mortality experiences of several countries and use a common principal component analysis to estimate a common age effect in an age–period model for multiple populations. The fit of the proposed model is then compared to age–period models fitted to each country individually, and to the fit of the model proposed by Li and Lee (2005).Although we do not consider stochastic mortality projections in this paper, we argue that the proposed common age effect model can be extended to a stochastic mortality model for multiple populations, which allows to generate mortality scenarios simultaneously for all considered populations. This is particularly relevant when mortality derivatives are used to hedge the longevity risk in an annuity portfolio as this often means that the underlying population for the derivatives is not the same as the population in the annuity portfolio