Determining the optimal strategy for reopening schools, the impact of test and trace interventions, and the risk of occurrence of a second COVID-19 epidemic wave in the UK: a modelling study

BACKGROUND: As lockdown measures to slow the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection begin to ease in the UK, it is important to assess the impact of any changes in policy, including school reopening and broader relaxation of physical distancing measures. We aimed to use an individual-based model to predict the impact of two possible strategies for reopening schools to all students in the UK from September, 2020, in combination with different assumptions about relaxation of physical distancing measures and the scale-up of testing. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used Covasim, a stochastic individual-based model for transmission of SARS-CoV-2, calibrated to the UK epidemic. The model describes individuals' contact networks stratified into household, school, workplace, and community layers, and uses demographic and epidemiological data from the UK. We simulated six different scenarios, representing the combination of two school reopening strategies (full time and a part-time rota system with 50% of students attending school on alternate weeks) and three testing scenarios (68% contact tracing with no scale-up in testing, 68% contact tracing with sufficient testing to avoid a second COVID-19 wave, and 40% contact tracing with sufficient testing to avoid a second COVID-19 wave). We estimated the number of new infections, cases, and deaths, as well as the effective reproduction number (R) under different strategies. In a sensitivity analysis to account for uncertainties within the stochastic simulation, we also simulated infectiousness of children and young adults aged younger than 20 years at 50% relative to older ages (20 years and older). FINDINGS: With increased levels of testing (between 59% and 87% of symptomatic people tested at some point during an active SARS-CoV-2 infection, depending on the scenario), and effective contact tracing and isolation, an epidemic rebound might be prevented. Assuming 68% of contacts could be traced, we estimate that 75% of individuals with symptomatic infection would need to be tested and positive cases isolated if schools return full-time in September, or 65% if a part-time rota system were used. If only 40% of contacts could be traced, these figures would increase to 87% and 75%, respectively. However, without these levels of testing and contact tracing, reopening of schools together with gradual relaxing of the lockdown measures are likely to induce a second wave that would peak in December, 2020, if schools open full-time in September, and in February, 2021, if a part-time rota system were adopted. In either case, the second wave would result in R rising above 1 and a resulting second wave of infections 2·0-2·3 times the size of the original COVID-19 wave. When infectiousness of children and young adults was varied from 100% to 50% of that of older ages, we still found that a comprehensive and effective test-trace-isolate strategy would be required to avoid a second COVID-19 wave. INTERPRETATION: To prevent a second COVID-19 wave, relaxation of physical distancing, including reopening of schools, in the UK must be accompanied by large-scale, population-wide testing of symptomatic individuals and effective tracing of their contacts, followed by isolation of diagnosed individuals. FUNDING: None

Relationship between intact HIV-1 proviruses in circulating CD4+ T cells and rebound viruses emerging during treatment interruption.

Combination antiretroviral therapy controls but does not cure HIV-1 infection because a small fraction of cells harbor latent viruses that can produce rebound viremia when therapy is interrupted. The circulating latent virus reservoir has been documented by a variety of methods, most prominently by viral outgrowth assays (VOAs) in which CD4+ T cells are activated to produce virus in vitro, or more recently by amplifying proviral near full-length (NFL) sequences from DNA. Analysis of samples obtained in clinical studies in which individuals underwent analytical treatment interruption (ATI), showed little if any overlap between circulating latent viruses obtained from outgrowth cultures and rebound viruses from plasma. To determine whether intact proviruses amplified from DNA are more closely related to rebound viruses than those obtained from VOAs, we assayed 12 individuals who underwent ATI after infusion of a combination of two monoclonal anti-HIV-1 antibodies. A total of 435 intact proviruses obtained by NFL sequencing were compared with 650 latent viruses from VOAs and 246 plasma rebound viruses. Although, intact NFL and outgrowth culture sequences showed similar levels of stability and diversity with 39% overlap, the size of the reservoir estimated from NFL sequencing was larger than and did not correlate with VOAs. Finally, intact proviruses documented by NFL sequencing showed no sequence overlap with rebound viruses; however, they appear to contribute to recombinant viruses found in plasma during rebound

Patients with severe acute‐on‐chronic liver failure are disadvantaged by model for end‐stage liver disease‐based organ allocation policy

Background: Mortality for patients with acute‐on‐chronic liver failure (ACLF) may be underestimated by the model for end‐stage liver disease‐sodium (MELD‐Na) score. / Aim: To assess waitlist outcomes across varying grades of ACLF among a cohort of patients listed with a MELD‐Na score ≥35, and therefore having similar priority for liver transplantation. / Methods: We analysed the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database, years 2010‐2017. Waitlist outcomes were evaluated using Fine and Gray's competing risks regression. / Results: We identified 6342 candidates at listing with a MELD‐Na score ≥35, of whom 3122 had ACLF‐3. Extra‐hepatic organ failures were present primarily in patients with four to six organ failures. Competing risks regression revealed that candidates listed with ACLF‐3 had a significantly higher risk for 90‐day waitlist mortality (Sub‐hazard ratio (SHR) = 1.41; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12‐1.78) relative to patients with lower ACLF grades. Subgroup analysis of ACLF‐3 revealed that both the presence of three organ failures (SHR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.20‐1.63) or four to six organ failures at listing (SHR = 3.01; 95% CI 2.54‐3.58) was associated with increased waitlist death. Candidates with four to six organ failures also had the lowest likelihood of receiving liver transplantation (SHR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.54‐0.68). The Share 35 rule was associated with reduced 90‐day waitlist mortality among the full cohort of patients listed with ACLF‐3 and MELD‐Na score ≥35 (SHR = 0.59; 95% CI 0.49‐0.70). However, Share 35 rule implementation was not associated with reduced waitlist mortality among patients with four to six organ failures (SHR = 0.76; 95% CI 0.58‐1.02). / Conclusion: The MELD‐Na score disadvantages patients with ACLF‐3, both with and without extra‐hepatic organ failures. Incorporation of organ failures into allocation policy warrants further exploration

Universal scaling relation in high-temperature superconductors

Scaling laws express a systematic and universal simplicity among complex systems in nature. For example, such laws are of enormous significance in biology. Scaling relations are also important in the physical sciences. The seminal 1986 discovery of high transition-temperature (high-T_c) superconductivity in cuprate materials has sparked an intensive investigation of these and related complex oxides, yet the mechanism for superconductivity is still not agreed upon. In addition, no universal scaling law involving such fundamental properties as T_c and the superfluid density \rho_s, a quantity indicative of the number of charge carriers in the superconducting state, has been discovered. Here we demonstrate that the scaling relation \rho_s \propto \sigma_{dc} T_c, where the conductivity \sigma_{dc} characterizes the unidirectional, constant flow of electric charge carriers just above T_c, universally holds for a wide variety of materials and doping levels. This surprising unifying observation is likely to have important consequences for theories of high-T_c superconductivity.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures, 2 table

Altered serological and cellular reactivity to H-2 antigens after target cell infection with vaccinia virus

MICE generate cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) which are able to lyse virus infected target cells in vitro after infection with lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) and pox-viruses1−3. CTL kill syngeneic and semiallogenic infected cells but not allogenic infected targets. Target cell lysis in these systems seems to be restricted by H-2 antigens, especially by the K or D end of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC). In experiments where virus specific sensitised lymphocytes kill virus infected allogenic target cells4 the effector lymphocytes have not been characterised exactly. Recent investigations suggest that the active cell in this assay, at least in the measles infection, is a non-thymus derived cell (H. Kreth, personal communication). An H-2 restriction of cell mediated cytolysis (CMC) to trinitrophenol (TNP)-modified lymphocytes has also been described5. Zinkernagel and Doherty6 postulated that the CTL is directed against syngeneic H-2 antigens and viral antigens and they suggested an alteration of H-2 induced by the LCMV infection. Earlier7 we found a close topological relationship between H-2 antigens and the target antigen(s) responsible for CMC in the vaccinia system. Here we report experiments which were carried out to prove alteration of H-2 after infection of L-929 fibroblasts with vaccinia virus

Imaging-guided chest biopsies: techniques and clinical results

Background This article aims to comprehensively describe indications, contraindications, technical aspects, diagnostic accuracy and complications of percutaneous lung biopsy. Methods Imaging-guided biopsy currently represents one of the predominant methods for obtaining tissue specimens in patients with lung nodules; in many cases treatment protocols are based on histological information; thus, biopsy is frequently performed, when technically feasible, or in case other techniques (such as bronchoscopy with lavage) are inconclusive. Results Although a coaxial system is suitable in any case, two categories of needles can be used: fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) and core-needle biopsy (CNB), with the latter demonstrated to have a slightly higher overall sensitivity, specificity and accuracy. Conclusion Percutaneous lung biopsy is a safe procedure even though a few complications are possible: pneumothorax, pulmonary haemorrhage and haemoptysis are common complications, while air embolism and seeding are rare, but potentially fatal complications

A Method of Drusen Measurement Based on the Geometry of Fundus Reflectance

BACKGROUND: The hallmarks of age-related macular degeneration, the leading cause of blindness in the developed world, are the subretinal deposits known as drusen. Drusen identification and measurement play a key role in clinical studies of this disease. Current manual methods of drusen measurement are laborious and subjective. Our purpose was to expedite clinical research with an accurate, reliable digital method. METHODS: An interactive semi-automated procedure was developed to level the macular background reflectance for the purpose of morphometric analysis of drusen. 12 color fundus photographs of patients with age-related macular degeneration and drusen were analyzed. After digitizing the photographs, the underlying background pattern in the green channel was leveled by an algorithm based on the elliptically concentric geometry of the reflectance in the normal macula: the gray scale values of all structures within defined elliptical boundaries were raised sequentially until a uniform background was obtained. Segmentation of drusen and area measurements in the central and middle subfields (1000 μm and 3000 μm diameters) were performed by uniform thresholds. Two observers using this interactive semi-automated software measured each image digitally. The mean digital measurements were compared to independent stereo fundus gradings by two expert graders (stereo Grader 1 estimated the drusen percentage in each of the 24 regions as falling into one of four standard broad ranges; stereo Grader 2 estimated drusen percentages in 1% to 5% intervals). RESULTS: The mean digital area measurements had a median standard deviation of 1.9%. The mean digital area measurements agreed with stereo Grader 1 in 22/24 cases. The 95% limits of agreement between the mean digital area measurements and the more precise stereo gradings of Grader 2 were -6.4 % to +6.8 % in the central subfield and -6.0 % to +4.5 % in the middle subfield. The mean absolute differences between the digital and stereo gradings 2 were 2.8 +/- 3.4% in the central subfield and 2.2 +/- 2.7% in the middle subfield. CONCLUSIONS: Semi-automated, supervised drusen measurements may be done reproducibly and accurately with adaptations of commercial software. This technique for macular image analysis has potential for use in clinical research

Clinical risk factors for age-related macular degeneration: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in Western countries. Numerous risk factors have been reported but the evidence and strength of association is variable. We aimed to identify those risk factors with strong levels of evidence which could be easily assessed by physicians or ophthalmologists to implement preventive interventions or address current behaviours. METHODS: A systematic review identified 18 prospective and cross-sectional studies and 6 case control studies involving 113,780 persons with 17,236 cases of late AMD that included an estimate of the association between late AMD and at least one of 16 pre-selected risk factors. Fixed-effects meta-analyses were conducted for each factor to combine odds ratio (OR) and/or relative risk (RR) outcomes across studies by study design. Overall raw point estimates of each risk factor and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. RESULTS: Increasing age, current cigarette smoking, previous cataract surgery, and a family history of AMD showed strong and consistent associations with late AMD. Risk factors with moderate and consistent associations were higher body mass index, history of cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and higher plasma fibrinogen. Risk factors with weaker and inconsistent associations were gender, ethnicity, diabetes, iris colour, history of cerebrovascular disease, and serum total and HDL cholesterol and triglyceride levels. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking, previous cataract surgery and a family history of AMD are consistent risk factors for AMD. Cardiovascular risk factors are also associated with AMD. Knowledge of these risk factors that may be easily assessed by physicians and general ophthalmologists may assist in identification and appropriate referral of persons at risk of AMD

Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions

The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, and changing restrictions. We used statistical models and the agent-based model Covasim, in June 2021, to estimate B.1.177 to be 20% more transmissible than the wild type, Alpha to be 50-80% more transmissible than B.1.177 and Delta to be 65-90% more transmissible than Alpha. Using these estimates in Covasim (calibrated 1 September 2020 to 20 June 2021), in June 2021, we found that due to the high transmissibility of Delta, resurgence in infections driven by the Delta variant would not be prevented, but would be strongly reduced by delaying the relaxation of restrictions by one month and with continued vaccination. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'