On the clustering of winter storm loss events over Germany

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series for Germany are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Two reanalysis data sets and observations from German weather stations are considered for 30 winters. Histograms of events exceeding selected return levels (1-, 2- and 5-year) are derived. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Over 4000 years of general circulation model (GCM) simulations forced with current climate conditions are analysed to provide a better assessment of historical return periods. Estimations differ between distributions, for example 40 to 65 years for the 1990 series. For such less frequent series, estimates obtained with the Poisson distribution clearly deviate from empirical data. The negative binomial distribution provides better estimates, even though a sensitivity to return level and data set is identified. The consideration of GCM data permits a strong reduction of uncertainties. The present results support the importance of considering explicitly clustering of losses for an adequate risk assessment for economical applications

Loss potentials associated with European windstorms under future climate conditions

Possible changes in the frequency and intensity of windstorms under future climate conditions during the 21st century are investigated based on an ECHAM5 GCM multi-scenario ensemble. The intensity of a storm is quantified by the associated estimated loss derived with using an empirical model. The geographical focus is ‘Core Europe’, which comprises countries of Western Europe. Possible changes of losses are analysed by comparing ECHAM5 GCM data for recent (20C, 1960 to 2000) and future climate conditions (B1, A1B, A2; 2060 to 2100), each with 3 ensemble members. Changes are quantified using both rank statistics and return periods (RP) estimated by fitting an extreme value distribution using the peak over threshold method to potential storm losses. The estimated losses for ECHAM5 20C and reanalysis events show similar statistical features in terms of return periods. Under future climate conditions, all climate scenarios show an increase in both frequency and magnitude of potential losses caused by windstorms for Core Europe. Future losses that are double the highest ECHAM5 20C loss are identified for some countries. While positive changes of ranking are significant for many countries and multiple scenarios, significantly shorter RPs are mostly found under the A2 scenario for return levels correspondent to 20 yr losses or less. The emergence time of the statistically significant changes in loss varies from 2027 to 2100. These results imply an increased risk of occurrence of windstorm-associated losses, which can be largely attributed to changes in the meteorological severity of the events. Additionally, factors such as changes in the cyclone paths and in the location of the wind signatures relative to highly populated areas are also important to explain the changes in estimated losses

Wind gust estimation for Mid-European winter storms: towards a probabilistic view

Three wind gust estimation (WGE) methods implemented in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model COSMO-CLM are evaluated with respect to their forecast quality using skill scores. Two methods estimate gusts locally from mean wind speed and the turbulence state of the atmosphere, while the third one considers the mixing-down of high momentum within the planetary boundary layer (WGE Brasseur). One hundred and fifty-eight windstorms from the last four decades are simulated and results are compared with gust observations at 37 stations in Germany. Skill scores reveal that the local WGE methods show an overall better behaviour, whilst WGE Brasseur performs less well except for mountain regions. The here introduced WGE turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) permits a probabilistic interpretation using statistical characteristics of gusts at observational sites for an assessment of uncertainty. The WGE TKE formulation has the advantage of a ‘native’ interpretation of wind gusts as result of local appearance of TKE. The inclusion of a probabilistic WGE TKE approach in NWP models has, thus, several advantages over other methods, as it has the potential for an estimation of uncertainties of gusts at observational sites

Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses

The impact of atmosphere–ocean–wave coupling on the near-surface wind speed in forecasts of extratropical cyclones

Accurate modelling of air–sea surface exchanges is crucial for reliable extreme surface windspeed forecasts. While atmosphere-only weather forecast models represent ocean and wave effects through sea-state independent parametrizations, coupled multi-model systems capture sea-state dynamics by integrating feedbacks between the atmosphere, ocean and wave model components. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of extreme surface wind speeds to air–sea exchanges at the kilometre scale using coupled and uncoupled configurations of the Met Office’s UK Regional Coupled Environmental Prediction system. The case period includes the passage of extra-tropical cyclones Helen, Ali, and Bronagh, which brought maximum gusts of 36 ms−1 over the UK. Compared with the atmosphere-only results, coupling to the ocean decreases the domain-average sea-surface temperature by up to 0.5 K. Inclusion of coupling to waves reduce the 98th percentile 10-m wind speed by up to 2 ms−1 as young, growing wind waves reduce the wind speed by increasing the sea-surface aerodynamic roughness. Impacts on gusts are more modest, with local reductions of up to 1 ms−1, due to enhanced boundary-layer turbulence which partially offsets air–sea momentum transfer. Using a new drag parametrization based on the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment 4.0 parametrization, with a cap on the neutral drag coefficient and reduction for wind speeds exceeding 27 ms−1, the atmosphere-only model achieves equivalent impacts on 10-m wind speeds and gusts as from coupling to waves. Overall, the new drag parametrization achieves the same 20% improvement in forecast 10-m wind-speed skill as coupling to waves, with the advantage of saving the computational cost of the ocean and wave models

CONTEMPT OF COURT

Contempt Of Court merupakan istilah dan pranata yang berasal/lahir dari sistem hukum Common Law, yakni berasal dari bahasa inggris. Contempt berarti melanggar, menghina, memandang rendah. Court yang berarti Pengadilan. Pengertian Contempt of Court adalah setiap tindakan atau perbuatan, baik aktif maupun pasif, tingkah laku, sikap dan/atau ucapan, baik di dalam maupun di luar pengadilan yang bermaksud merendahkan dan merongrong kewibawaan, martabat dan kehormatan institusi peradilan yang dilakukan oleh seseorang atau sekelompok orang sehingga mengganggu dan merintangi sistem atau proses penyelenggaraan peradilan yang seharusnya. Di Indonesia pengertian dan istilah Contempt Of Court baru secara resmi diakui legitimasinya, yakni semenjak lahirnya Undang – Undang Nomor 14 tahun 1985 tentang Mahkamah Agung, yang mengamanatkan dalam penjelasan umum butir 4 alinea ke 4 tentang perlu dibuatnya suatu Undang- Undang yang mengatur penindakan terhadap Contempt Of Court. Kemudian dalam Undang – Undang Nomor 25 tahun 2000 tentang program Pembangunan Nasional tahun 2000 – 2004 juga mencantumkan dalam matriks kebijakan program Pembangunan Hukum, tentang perlunya ditetapkan Undang – Undang tentang Contempt Of Court, tahun 2002. Namun sampai saat ini amanat kedua Undang – Undang tersebut belum terlaksana, sehingga dalam praktek penegakan Hukum di Indonesia jika terjadi kasus Contempt Of Court, akan diterapkan pasal – pasal dalam perundang-undangan pidana. Khususnya pasal-pasal dalam KUHP yang dikategorikan sebagai delik Contempt of Court. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui landasan filosofis pengaturan,ruang lingkup dan bentuk-bentuk Contempt Of Court, serta ketentuan / pengaturan hukum pidana tentang contempt of court dalam perundang-undangan pidana di Indonesia dan juga untuk mengetahui penerapan peraturan pidana Indonesia, khususnya KUHP terhadap Contempt Of Court, apakah sudah memadai dalam situasi dan kondisi penegakan hukum dewasa ini. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pasal-pasal dalam perundang-undangan pidana di Indonesia. Khususnya yang terdapat dalam KUHP yang dapat dikategorikan sebagai delik Contempt Of Court tidak diatur secara sistematis karena tidak dicantumkan secara khusus dalam satu bab, akan tetapi terserak-serak dalam beberapa buku dan beberapa bab, dan yang diatur hanya mengenai materi dari Contempt Of Court,sedangkan mengenai hukum acaranya tidak ada diatur, khususnya terhadap Contempt Of Court yang terjadi di depan persidangan seperti diatur pada Negara-negara Common Law, yang menerapkan proses sumir (Summary Process). Sedangkan penerapan pasal-pasal tertentu dalam perundang-undangan pidana Indonesia, kuhusnya KUHP terdapat kasus-kasus Contempt Of Court, belum memadai dalam situasi dan kondisi penegakan hukum di Indonesia dewasa ini,sehingga perlu ditindaklanjuti dengan ditetapkannya suatu undang-undang khusus yang mengatur Contempt Of Court, atau setidak-tidaknya mencantumkannya secara sistematis dalam KUHP Nasional yang baru atau merevisi KUHP yang ada sekarang. Disarankan agar peraturan perundang-undangan yang mengatur Contempt Of Court dapat benar-benar efektif dan sesuai dengan iklim penegakan hukum di Indonesia, harus diadakan penelitian yang mendalam dan komprehensif tentang Contempt Of Court oleh pemerintah dengan bekerjasama dengan para akademisi,puslitbang Hukum dan peradilan Mahkamah Agung, dan lembaga penelitian ilmiah lainnya. Dan sementara pengaturan yang khusus tentang Contempt Of Court belum disahkan, disarankan juga agar institusi peradilan dan aparat penegak hukum berbenah diri dengan meningkatkan kualitas, intelektualitas,profesionalitas, integritas moral dan taat kode etik profesi, sedangkan Mahkamah Agung agar dapat mengeluarkan surat peraturan (PERMA) yang berisi petunjuk atau pedoman tentang acara persidangan dan penindakan terhadap tindak pidana penyelenggaraan peradilan yang dikenal dengan Contempt Of Court

© Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. On

www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/14/2041/2014/ doi:10.5194/nhess-14-2041-201

Diagnose, mittelfristige Vorhersagbarkeit und Auswirkungen der Nordatlantischen Oszillation (NAO): Das Auftreten extremer Windgeschwindigkeiten und Gebietsniederschlaege ueber Mitteleuropa Abschlussbericht ueber die wissenschaftlichen Ergebnisse 1998 - 2000

In this research Rhine-floods at Cologne and severe storm events in Germany are investigated. Special emphasis is put on a possible link between these events and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Over Germany intensive storm events are identified with a statistical model based on gust-speed observations and NCEP-Reanalysis data. The model-output is validated to insurance data. It is found out that storm-probability in Germany increases with positive monthly and seasonal NAO-index values. Evaluations of scenario runs - simulating an intensification of greenhouse gas forcing due to anthropogenic emissions - show a trend to more positive phases of the NAO. For the future an increased number of severe storms is expected. An influence of the NAO on the Rhine floods can be stated. At slightly positive values of monthly NAO the frequency of floods is increased. Nevertheless, possible changes in the future NAO do have only a small influence on the number of events, but the impact on the flood-genesis has to be taken into account. (orig.)In dieser Studie werden Hochwasser am Rhein bei Koeln und schadenintensive Sturmereignisse in Deutschland untersucht. Insbesondere wird der Zusammenhang zwischen der Nordatlantischen Oszillation (NAO) und diesen Extremereignissen erarbeitet. Schadenintensive Sturmereignisse werden mit Hilfe eines statistischen Sturmschadenmodells basierend auf Boeen und NCEP-Reanalysedaten identifiziert. Das Modell wurde zuvor an Schadendaten der Versicherungsindustrie verifiziert. Auf Basis der identifizierten Stuerme wird die Auftretenshaeufigkeit intensiver Ereignisse in Deutschland in Abhaengigkeit der NAO untersucht. Es wird festgestellt, dass bei positiven Phasen der Nordatlantischen Oszillation auf monatlicher bis saisonaler Zeitskala im Winterhalbjahr ein deutlich erhoehtes Auftretensrisiko intensiver Sturmereignisse in Deutschland besteht. Auswertungen von Klimaszenarienlaeufen deuten auf einen verstaerkten Trend zu hoeheren Phasen der NAO in einem anthropogen veraenderten Klima hin, weshalb eine Zunahme der Zahl von schadenintensiven Stuermen in Mitteleuropa prognostiziert wird. Insgesamt ergibt sich bei leicht positiven monatlichen NAO-Indexwerten eine geringfuegig erhoehte Auftretenswahrscheinlichkeit von Hochwasserereignissen. Die erwarteten Aenderungen der NAO in der Zukunft deuten deshalb weniger auf eine Aenderung der Auftretenshaeufigkeit von Hochwassern hin, sondern lassen auf eine Aenderung der Genese schliessen. (orig.)SIGLEAvailable from TIB Hannover: F02B1319 / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekBundesministerium fuer Bildung und Forschung, Berlin (Germany)DEGerman