Understanding uncertainties in future Colorado River streamflow

Artículo -- Universidad de Costa Rica. Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas, 2014The Colorado River is the primary water source for more than 30 million people in the United States and Mexico. Recent studies that project streamflow changes in the Colorado River all project annual declines, but the magnitude of the projected decreases range from less than 10% to 45% by the mid-twenty-first century. To understand these differences, we address the questions the management community has raised: Why is there such a wide range of projections of impacts of future climate change on Colorado River streamflow, and how should this uncertainty be interpreted? We identify four major sources of disparities among studies that arise from both methodological and model differences. In order of importance, these are differences in 1) the global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios used; 2) the ability of land surface and atmospheric models to simulate properly the high-elevation runoff source areas; 3) the sensitivities of land surface hydrology models to precipitation and temperature changes; and 4) the methods used to statistically downscale GCM scenarios. In accounting for these differences, there is substantial evidence across studies that future Colorado River streamflow will be reduced under the current trajectories of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions because of a combination of strong temperature-induced runoff curtailment and reduced annual precipitation. Reconstructions of preinstrumental streamflows provide additional insights; the greatest risk to Colorado River streamflows is a multidecadal drought, like that observed in paleoreconstructions, exacerbated by a steady reduction in flows due to climate change. This could result in decades of sustained streamflows much lower than have been observed in the ~100 years of instrumental record.Universidad de Costa Rica. Centro de Investigaciones GeofísicasLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia UniversityUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI

Using False Rings to Reconstruct Local Drought Severity Patterns on a Semiarid River

In this research, I describe the use of false rings to reconstruct local histories of seasonal drought in riparian ecosystems in semiarid regions. In tree-ring analysis, false rings are boundary-like features often formed as a response to drought within the growing season. Drought can be a common feature in hydrologic regimes of dryland rivers but in recent decades drought has been intensifying due to climate change and increasing water use by cities, agriculture and industry. Identifying when and where water availability has decreased along the river course is critical for understanding, and therefore managing, these generally endangered ecosystems. The higher density of trees compared to instrumental data make them ideal candidates for reconstructing site-specific drought patterns.The first part of this dissertation is an observational study conducted on the San Pedro River in southeastern Arizona during 2002. I used dendrometer data and local hydrological data to show that a period of negligible radial growth in cottonwood during the middle of the growing season coincided with a channel drying event. Tree-ring core samples confirmed that false-rings had formed in each of the instrumented trees. The second part of this dissertation is an experimental study designed to evaluate the effect of different levels of water stress on false-ring formation in cottonwood and willow. I showed that experimental decreases in water availability for periods as short as ten days were enough to induce false-ring formation in willow. Longer periods of reduced water availability were generally required to induce false-ring formation in cottonwood. In the final part of this dissertation, I reconstructed false-ring occurrence in Fremont cottonwoods at three sites along the San Pedro River. I infer from false-ring frequencies that the severity of summer drought has been increasing over the last four to six decades but that the drought severity varies along a hydrological gradient. Overall, the findings in this body of research confirm that false rings in riparian tree species can be used as indicators of seasonal drought and underscore the importance of identifying site-specific responses to reduced water availability along the riparian corridor

Reconstruction and Interpretation of Historical Patterns of Fire Occurence in the Organ Mountains, New Mexico

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The canonical smooth muscle cell marker TAGLN is present in endothelial cells and is involved in angiogenesis

Elongation of vascular endothelial cells (ECs) is an important process in angiogenesis; however, the molecular mechanisms remain unknown. The actin-crosslinking protein TAGLN (transgelin, also known as SM22 or SM22α) is abundantly expressed in smooth muscle cells (SMCs) and is widely used as a canonical marker for this cell type. In the course of studies using mouse embryonic stem cells (ESCs) carrying an Tagln promoter-driven fluorescence marker, we noticed activation of the Tagln promoter during EC elongation. Tagln promoter activation co-occurred with EC elongation in response to vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGF-A). Inhibition of phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K)–Akt signaling and mTORC1 also induced EC elongation and Tagln promoter activation. Human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) elongated, activated the TAGLN promoter and increased TAGLN transcripts in an angiogenesis model. Genetic disruption of TAGLN augmented angiogenic behaviors of HUVECs, as did the disruption of TAGLN2 and TAGLN3 genes. Tagln expression was found in ECs in mouse embryos. Our results identify TAGLN as a putative regulator of angiogenesis whose expression is activated in elongating ECs. This finding provides insight into the cytoskeletal regulation of EC elongation and an improved understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying the regulation of angiogenesis

The role of research and development in drought adaptation on the Colorado River Basin

Introduction Over the past several decades, research and development has played an important role in water management on the Colorado River Basin (CRB). In the early 1970s, a federal study called into question the ability of the Colorado River system to meet demand within the basin (USDOI, 1974). In 1976, evidence that the Colorado River may have been over-allocated was provided in the form of a tree-ring reconstruction of Colorado River streamflow (Stockton and Jacoby, 1976). Researchers identified the early 1920s, when the river was apportioned, as a particularly wet period within the 450-year reconstructed record. The paleo-record also revealed historical periods of low flow with longer duration and greater magnitude than those seen in the gauged record. As a result of these observations, the extensive ‘Severe and Sustained Drought Study’ was undertaken by a consortium of universities and consultants in the early 1990s. It was funded by the Department of the Interior and other federal, regional, and state agencies. The final report and numerous papers published in 1995 assessed the hydrological, social, economic and environmental impacts of a severe and sustained drought, as well as policy options for mitigating these impacts. High river flows in the 1990s delayed further discussion and action, but drought in the early 2000s, with 2010 marking the lowest 11-year period in almost a century, served as a ‘focusing event’ (Pulwarty and Melis, 2001) and revived efforts to plan for and adapt to drought

An Empirical Algorithm for Estimating Agricultural and Riparian Evapotranspiration Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index and Ground Measurements of ET. II. Application to the Lower Colorado River, U.S.

Abstract: Large quantities of water are consumed by irrigated crops and riparian vegetation in western U.S. irrigation districts. Remote sensing methods for estimating evaporative water losses by soil and vegetation (evapotranspiration, ET) over wide river stretches are needed to allocate water for agricultural and environmental needs. We used the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from MODIS sensors on the Terra satellite to scale ET over agricultural and riparian areas along the Lower Colorado River in the southwestern U.S., using a linear regression equation between ET of riparian plants and alfalfa measured on the ground, and meteorological and remote sensing data, with an error or uncertainty of about 20%. The algorithm was applied to irrigation districts and riparian areas from Lake Mead to the U.S./Mexico border. The results for agricultural crops were similar to results produced by crop coefficients developed for the irrigation districts along the river. However, riparian ET was only half as great as crop coefficient estimates set by expert opinion, equal to about 40 % of reference crop evapotranspiration. Based on reported acreages in 2007, agricultural crops (146,473 ha) consumed 2.2 × 10 9 m 3 yr −1 of water. All riparian shrubs and trees (47,014 ha) consumed 3.8 × 10 8 m 3 yr −1, of which saltcedar, th

An Empirical Algorithm for Estimating Agricultural and Riparian Evapotranspiration Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index and Ground Measurements of ET. I. Description of Method

We used the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from MODIS to scale evapotranspiration (ETactual) over agricultural and riparian areas along the Lower Colorado River in the southwestern US. Ground measurements of ETactual by alfalfa, saltcedar, cottonwood and arrowweed were expressed as fraction of potential (reference crop) ETo (EToF) then regressed against EVI scaled between bare soil (0) and full vegetation cover (1.0) (EVI*). EVI* values were calculated based on maximum and minimum EVI values from a large set of riparian values in a previous study. A satisfactory relationship was found between crop and riparian plant EToF and EVI*, with an error or uncertainty of about 20% in the mean estimate (mean ETactual = 6.2 mm d−1, RMSE = 1.2 mm d−1). The equation for ETactual was: ETactual = 1.22 × ETo-BC × EVI*, where ETo-BC is the Blaney Criddle formula for ETo. This single algorithm applies to all the vegetation types in the study, and offers an alternative to ETactual estimates that use crop coefficients set by expert opinion, by using an algorithm based on the actual state of the canopy as determined by time-series satellite images

An Empirical Algorithm for Estimating Agricultural and Riparian Evapotranspiration Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index and Ground Measurements of ET. I. Description of Method

We used the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from MODIS to scale evapotranspiration (ETactual) over agricultural and riparian areas along the Lower Colorado River in the southwestern US. Ground measurements of ETactual by alfalfa, saltcedar, cottonwood and arrowweed were expressed as fraction of potential (reference crop) ETo (EToF) then regressed against EVI scaled between bare soil (0) and full vegetation cover (1.0) (EVI*). EVI* values were calculated based on maximum and minimum EVI values from a large set of riparian values in a previous study. A satisfactory relationship was found between crop and riparian plant EToF and EVI*, with an error or uncertainty of about 20% in the mean estimate (mean ETactual = 6.2 mm d−1, RMSE = 1.2 mm d−1). The equation for ETactual was: ETactual = 1.22 × ETo-BC × EVI*, where ETo-BC is the Blaney Criddle formula for ETo. This single algorithm applies to all the vegetation types in the study, and offers an alternative to ETactual estimates that use crop coefficients set by expert opinion, by using an algorithm based on the actual state of the canopy as determined by time-series satellite images