Quo vadis, deficit? How high the tax level will be when the economic cycle reverses?

The economic recession dampened tax revenues, causing deterioration – partly temporary, partly permanent – in the general government balance. The fiscal position can be assessed realistically if we can determine the level of revenue and deficit in the medium run. In order to do this, we prepare estimates of the trends of the macroeconomic variables determining tax bases and of the elasticity between tax revenues and tax bases. Trends in macroeconomic variables can be determined in three ways. Results from the macroeconometric model are more reliable and consistent. The simple time series method (ECB) is acceptable if it relies on prior estimation – e.g. one derived from the model – of the trends of macroeconomic variables. The Multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter method (MVHP) only requires exogenously given potential GDP, and is thus suitable for simulation and for determining the uncertainty surrounding the estimate. Our model-based results show that the deficit for 2010 would be 2.8% lower if – over the medium term – there were convergence with the potential GDP forecast by the model. From 2011 this negative cyclical component will diminish by an annual 0.4-0.5%. If potential GDP is 1% lower, from 2011 tax revenues would approach a lower medium-term tax level 0.28-0.29% faster based on the MVHP method. If potential GDP is 1% higher, convergence to a higher tax level would be 0.30-0.31% slower.cyclically adjusted budget deficit, business cycles, constrained multi variate HP filter

A játék hendikepes rendszere

A dolgozat Bernard Suits nyomán hendikepes rendszerként határozza meg a játékot. Olyan tevékenységként, ahol triviális feladatokat oldunk meg nem hatékony módokon, különös kötelmek szerint. Az utóbbi kötelmeket a játék operatív szabályai rögzítik, melyek más, konstitutív és implicit szabályokkal kiegészülve hozzák létre a játék komplex élményét. A cikk amellett érvel, hogy a fenti módon valamennyi játék leírható, miközben egy a játékhoz és a létrejöttéhez közeli nézőpontot szorgalmaz

Severity Estimation of Depression Using Convolutional Neural Network

In the present study, we attempt to estimate the severity of depression using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). The method is special because an auto- and cross-correlation structure has been crafted rather than using an actual image for the input of the network. The importance to investigate the possibility of this research is that depression has become one of the leading mental disorders in the world. With its appearance, it can significantly reduce an individual's quality of life even at an early stage, and in severe cases, it may threaten with suicide. It is therefore important that the disorder be recognized as early as possible. Furthermore, it is also important to determine the disorder severity of the individual, so that a treatment order can be established. During the examination, speech acoustic features were obtained from recordings. Among the features, MFCC coefficients and formant frequencies were used based on preliminary studies. From its subsets, correlation structure was created. We applied this quadratic structure to the input of a convolutional network. Two models were crafted: single and double input versions. Altogether, the lowest RMSE value (10.797) was achieved using the two features, which has a moderate strength correlation of 0.61 (between estimated and original)

A John Company mechanikus retorikája = The Mechanical Rhetoric of John Company

A dolgozat a történelmi játék retorikájával foglalkozik Cole Wehrle John Company: Second Edition-je (2022) kapcsán. Wehrle társasjátéka a 19. századi nagyregény konvencióit a saját médiumára fordítja át, a mechanizmusain keresztül viszi színre a Brit Kelet-indiai Társaság felemelkedését és bukását. Történelmi tablója a Társaság működését, az indiai és a brit politika korabeli eseményeit és általában véve a társadalmi és gazdasági kontextust mutatja be, amelyben a cég létrejött és működött. Mindezt a játék mechanizmusain keresztül teszi, melyek hosszas, több éves iteratív folyamaton, variációkon keresztül alakultak ki és nyerték el végső formájukat. A dolgozat ez utóbbi folyamat néhány elemét idézi fel: mely megoldások, mechanizmusok mellett döntött végül Wehrle, és ezek mennyiben támasztják alá a tárgyával kapcsolatos argumentációját? | This paper explores the rhetorics of historical gaming in the context of Cole Wehrle’s John Company: Second Edition (2022). Wehrle’s board game translates the conventions of the 19th century novel into its own medium, using its mechanisms to stage the rise and fall of the British East India Company. Its historical tableau presents the workings of the Company, the events of Indian and British politics at the time, and the wider social and economic context in which it was established and operated. It does this through the mechanisms of the game, which evolved and took final form through a long iterative process over many years. The paper will recall some of the elements of the latter process: which solutions and mechanisms did Wehrle finally opt for, and to what extent do they support his argumentation on the subject

Myths and Maths: Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Adjustments in Hungary

In this paper we investigate the possible effects of fiscal tightening in Hungary from two perspectives. First, simulations in an estimated neo-Keynesian model are used to characterise the effects of different scenarios for fiscal consolidations. We show that the composition of fiscal shocks is important for both the economic outcome and monetary policy. These simulations suggest a modest output cost of fiscal consolidation. Then we take a closer look at the non-Keynesian effects and their relevance for Hungary in a qualitative way. In our review of non-Keynesian channels of fiscal adjustments we conclude that expansionary effects are likely to become evident only in the medium or long run, rather than immediately after measures are taken.Keynesian, non-Keynesian effects, expansionary fiscal adjustment, Monetary policy reactions, Model simulations.

Scanning Electron and Optical Microscopic Studies of the System of Porcine Zonular Fibres

The mechanical behaviour of the zonular apparatus greatly affects the accommodation process because it moves out from the ciliary muscle and runs into the lens capsule. The zonular fi bres convey the force between the ciliary body and the crystalline lens. For the measurement of the mechanical properties of zonular fi bres is necessary to know its geometry. In this paper we ana-lyzed the network of porcine zonular fi bres with scanning electron and optical microscope. We manifested that the porcine zonular fi bre system differs from human and monkey eyes. The thick-ness of the apparatus of intertwined zonular fi bres is approximately 45 m and the length from the origin to the insertion is about 1.5 mm. Based on these informations the input parameters of numerical modelling can be more precise to clarify the accommodation process