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The influence of land-use activities and regional drought on historical fire regimes of Buryatia, Siberia
Every year, millions of hectares burn across Siberia, driven by a combination of warming temperatures, regional drought and human-caused ignitions. Dendrochronology provides a long-term context to evaluate recent trends in fire activity and interpret the relative influence of humans and climate drivers on fire regimes. We developed a 400 year record of fire-scarred trees from 17 sites in pine-dominated forests located southeast of Lake Baikal. Site-level mean fire return intervals (MFIs) ranged from 4 to 27 years for all fires and 8 to 35 years for widespread fires within sites. Sites with the lowest MFI values were located within 1 km of agricultural fields in grassland valleys, suggesting that agricultural burning influenced MFIs at nearby sites. Fire frequency varied over the record, with significantly high values around 1790, from 1865 to 1880, 1948 to 1955 and 1995 to 2005. The increased fire activity corresponded with migration waves to the region and major socio-economic change connected with the establishment and breakdown of the Soviet Union. At broader scales, superposed epoch analysis showed that synchronous fire years were associated with regional drought and precipitation deficits. Wet conditions for 2–3 years prior to the event year were also significant, suggesting that increased moisture promoted growth of understory fine fuels to support more extensive fires across the study area. Although fire frequencies increased during the 20th century, fire–climate relationships weakened, suggesting increased human-caused ignitions may override regional climate drivers. Our dataset presents a continuous record of frequent surface fires over the past 400 years, providing a valuable opportunity to compare dendrochronology-based reconstructions with satellite and documentary records.
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ΠΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ΄Π° ΠΊΡΡΠΏΠ½ΡΡ ΠΏΠΎΠΆΠ°ΡΠΎΠ² Π² ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Π·ΠΎΠ½Π°Ρ ΡΠ°ΠΉΠ³ΠΈ Π¦Π΅Π½ΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π‘ΠΈΠ±ΠΈΡΠΈ
The work deals with the nature of large wildfires, conditions of their occurrence and distribution in the
taiga of Central Siberia. The large fires in this region occur during periods of prolonged and intense
drought, with precipitation deficit more than 60 % of the norm. Vegetation and climate conditions of
large fires are identified and map of their distribution is compiled using satellite information. Fire
seasons scenarios are examined, and an iterative model for short-term forecasting of extreme fire
situations is proposed. Methodology for short-term forecasting of large wildfires risk is offered based
on satellite data simultaneously on the whole territory of Central SiberiaΠ ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠ΅ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΌΠ°ΡΡΠΈΠ²Π°ΡΡΡΡ Π²ΠΎΠΏΡΠΎΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ΄Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠΆΠ°ΡΠΎΠ², ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ ΠΈΡ
Π²ΠΎΠ·Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈ
ΡΠ°ΡΠΏΡΠΎΡΡΡΠ°Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π² ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Π·ΠΎΠ½Π°Ρ
ΡΠ°ΠΉΠ³ΠΈ Π¦Π΅Π½ΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π‘ΠΈΠ±ΠΈΡΠΈ. Π£ΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΎ, ΡΡΠΎ ΠΊΡΡΠΏΠ½ΡΠ΅ ΠΏΠΎΠΆΠ°ΡΡ Π²
ΡΡΠΎΠΌ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π΅ Π²ΠΎΠ·Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΡ Π² ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠΈΠΎΠ΄Ρ Π΄Π»ΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΈ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π½ΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΡΡ
Π·Π°ΡΡΡ
Ρ Π½Π΅Π΄ΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡΠΎΠΌ ΠΎΡΠ°Π΄ΠΊΠΎΠ² Π±ΠΎΠ»Π΅Π΅
60 % ΠΎΡ Π½ΠΎΡΠΌΡ. ΠΡΡΠ²Π»Π΅Π½Ρ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅ ΠΈ ΠΊΠ»ΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠ΅ ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ ΡΠ°ΡΠΏΡΠΎΡΡΡΠ°Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΊΡΡΠΏΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΆΠ°ΡΠΎΠ² ΠΈ ΡΠΎΡΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½Π° ΠΊΠ°ΡΡΠ° ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ°ΡΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΏΠΎ ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΎΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΏΠΎ ΠΊΠΎΡΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ.
Π Π°ΡΡΠΌΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π½Ρ ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΡΠΈΡ ΠΏΠΎΠΆΠ°ΡΠΎΠΎΠΏΠ°ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΡΠ΅Π·ΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ², ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½Ρ ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½Π°Ρ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ
ΠΊΡΠ°ΡΠΊΠΎΡΡΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠΊΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΠΆΠ°ΡΠΎΠΎΠΏΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΎΠ±ΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΊΠΈ ΠΈ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°
ΠΊΡΠ°ΡΠΊΠΎΡΡΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·Π° ΠΎΠΏΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Π²ΠΎΠ·Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π»Π°Π½Π΄ΡΠ°ΡΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΆΠ°ΡΠΎΠ² ΠΏΠΎ ΡΠΏΡΡΠ½ΠΈΠΊΠΎΠ²ΡΠΌ
Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΠΌ ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΠΎΠ²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎ Π½Π° Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΎΡΠΈΠΈ Π¦Π΅Π½ΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π‘ΠΈΠ±ΠΈΡ
ΠΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ΄Π° ΠΊΡΡΠΏΠ½ΡΡ ΠΏΠΎΠΆΠ°ΡΠΎΠ² Π² ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Π·ΠΎΠ½Π°Ρ ΡΠ°ΠΉΠ³ΠΈ Π¦Π΅Π½ΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π‘ΠΈΠ±ΠΈΡΠΈ
The work deals with the nature of large wildfires, conditions of their occurrence and distribution in the
taiga of Central Siberia. The large fires in this region occur during periods of prolonged and intense
drought, with precipitation deficit more than 60 % of the norm. Vegetation and climate conditions of
large fires are identified and map of their distribution is compiled using satellite information. Fire
seasons scenarios are examined, and an iterative model for short-term forecasting of extreme fire
situations is proposed. Methodology for short-term forecasting of large wildfires risk is offered based
on satellite data simultaneously on the whole territory of Central SiberiaΠ ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠ΅ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΌΠ°ΡΡΠΈΠ²Π°ΡΡΡΡ Π²ΠΎΠΏΡΠΎΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ΄Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠΆΠ°ΡΠΎΠ², ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ ΠΈΡ
Π²ΠΎΠ·Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈ
ΡΠ°ΡΠΏΡΠΎΡΡΡΠ°Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π² ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Π·ΠΎΠ½Π°Ρ
ΡΠ°ΠΉΠ³ΠΈ Π¦Π΅Π½ΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π‘ΠΈΠ±ΠΈΡΠΈ. Π£ΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΎ, ΡΡΠΎ ΠΊΡΡΠΏΠ½ΡΠ΅ ΠΏΠΎΠΆΠ°ΡΡ Π²
ΡΡΠΎΠΌ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π΅ Π²ΠΎΠ·Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΡ Π² ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠΈΠΎΠ΄Ρ Π΄Π»ΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΈ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π½ΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΡΡ
Π·Π°ΡΡΡ
Ρ Π½Π΅Π΄ΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡΠΎΠΌ ΠΎΡΠ°Π΄ΠΊΠΎΠ² Π±ΠΎΠ»Π΅Π΅
60 % ΠΎΡ Π½ΠΎΡΠΌΡ. ΠΡΡΠ²Π»Π΅Π½Ρ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅ ΠΈ ΠΊΠ»ΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠ΅ ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ ΡΠ°ΡΠΏΡΠΎΡΡΡΠ°Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΊΡΡΠΏΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΆΠ°ΡΠΎΠ² ΠΈ ΡΠΎΡΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½Π° ΠΊΠ°ΡΡΠ° ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ°ΡΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΏΠΎ ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΎΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΏΠΎ ΠΊΠΎΡΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ.
Π Π°ΡΡΠΌΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π½Ρ ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΡΠ°Π·Π²ΠΈΡΠΈΡ ΠΏΠΎΠΆΠ°ΡΠΎΠΎΠΏΠ°ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΡΠ΅Π·ΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ², ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½Ρ ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½Π°Ρ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Ρ
ΠΊΡΠ°ΡΠΊΠΎΡΡΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠΊΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΠΆΠ°ΡΠΎΠΎΠΏΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΎΠ±ΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΊΠΈ ΠΈ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°
ΠΊΡΠ°ΡΠΊΠΎΡΡΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·Π° ΠΎΠΏΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Π²ΠΎΠ·Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π»Π°Π½Π΄ΡΠ°ΡΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΆΠ°ΡΠΎΠ² ΠΏΠΎ ΡΠΏΡΡΠ½ΠΈΠΊΠΎΠ²ΡΠΌ
Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΠΌ ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΠΎΠ²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎ Π½Π° Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΎΡΠΈΠΈ Π¦Π΅Π½ΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π‘ΠΈΠ±ΠΈΡ