Using Bayesian Models To Forecast International Arrivals And Departures By Age, Sex, And Region In New Zealand

Statistics New Zealand prepares regular population projections at the subnational level. Like other statistical agencies, Statistics NZ currently uses a deterministic approach to subnational projections. However, we are currently developing an alternative, more statistical, approach. In this paper, we describe two Bayesian hierarchical models for estimating and forecasting international in-migration and out-migration rates, disaggregated by age, sex, and territorial authority. The model uses international arrivals and departures data for 1991-2013, and produces forecasts for 2014-2039. Special attention is given to the ability of the model to estimate migration rates for small population domains. The modelled approach provides a coherent and integrated measure of uncertainty at the detailed demographic level. Examples of estimated and forecasted migration rates are presented. We conclude with a discussion of the challenges and limitations of the data and model, and directions for future developments

Using Bayesian Models To Forecast International Arrivals And Departures By Age, Sex, And Region In New Zealand

Statistics New Zealand prepares regular population projections at the subnational level. Like other statistical agencies, Statistics NZ currently uses a deterministic approach to subnational projections. However, we are currently developing an alternative, more statistical, approach. In this paper, we describe two Bayesian hierarchical models for estimating and forecasting international in-migration and out-migration rates, disaggregated by age, sex, and territorial authority. The model uses international arrivals and departures data for 1991-2013, and produces forecasts for 2014-2039. Special attention is given to the ability of the model to estimate migration rates for small population domains. The modelled approach provides a coherent and integrated measure of uncertainty at the detailed demographic level. Examples of estimated and forecasted migration rates are presented. We conclude with a discussion of the challenges and limitations of the data and model, and directions for future developments

KRAS Mutant Pancreatic Cancer: No Lone Path to an Effective Treatment

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is among the deadliest cancers with a dismal 7% 5-year survival rate and is projected to become the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths by 2020. KRAS is mutated in 95% of PDACs and is a well-validated driver of PDAC growth and maintenance. However, despite comprehensive efforts, an effective anti-RAS drug has yet to reach the clinic. Different paths to inhibiting RAS signaling are currently under investigation in the hope of finding a successful treatment. Recently, direct RAS binding molecules have been discovered, challenging the perception that RAS is an “undruggable” protein. Other strategies currently being pursued take an indirect approach, targeting proteins that facilitate RAS membrane association or downstream effector signaling. Unbiased genetic screens have identified synthetic lethal interactors of mutant RAS. Most recently, metabolic targets in pathways related to glycolytic signaling, glutamine utilization, autophagy, and macropinocytosis are also being explored. Harnessing the patient’s immune system to fight their cancer is an additional exciting route that is being considered. The “best” path to inhibiting KRAS has yet to be determined, with each having promise as well as potential pitfalls. We will summarize the state-of-the-art for each direction, focusing on efforts directed toward the development of therapeutics for pancreatic cancer patients with mutated KRAS

A novel fluorescence-based biosynthetic trafficking method provides pharmacologic evidence that PI4-kinase IIIα is important for protein trafficking from the endoplasmic reticulum to the plasma membrane

Abstract Background Biosynthetic trafficking of receptors and other membrane-associated proteins from the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) to the plasma membrane (PM) underlies the capacity of these proteins to participate in crucial cellular roles. Phosphoinositides have been shown to mediate distinct biological functions in cells, and phosphatidylinositol 4-phosphate (PI4P), in particular, has emerged as a key regulator of biosynthetic trafficking. Results To investigate the source of PI4P that orchestrates trafficking events, we developed a novel flow cytometry based method to monitor biosynthetic trafficking of transiently transfected proteins. We demonstrated that our method can be used to assess the trafficking of both type-1 transmembrane and GPI-linked proteins, and that it can accurately monitor the pharmacological disruption of biosynthetic trafficking with brefeldin A, a well-documented inhibitor of early biosynthetic trafficking. Furthermore, utilizing our newly developed method, we applied pharmacological inhibition of different isoforms of PI 4-kinase to reveal a role for a distinct pool of PI4P, synthesized by PI4KIIIα, in ER-to-PM trafficking. Conclusions Taken together, these findings provide evidence that a specific pool of PI4P plays a role in biosynthetic trafficking of two different classes of proteins from the ER to the Golgi complex. Furthermore, our simple, flow cytometry-based biosynthetic trafficking assay can be widely applied to the study of multiple classes of proteins and varied pharmacological and genetic perturbations

Transparent and feasible uncertainty assessment adds value to applied ecosystem services modeling

We introduce a special issue that aims to simultaneously motivate interest in uncertainty assessment (UA) and reduce the barriers practitioners face in conducting it. The issue, “Demonstrating transparent, feasible, and useful uncertainty assessment in ecosystem services modeling,” responds to findings from a 2016 workshop of academics and practitioners that identified challenges and potential solutions to enhance the practice of uncertainty assessment in the ES community. Participants identified that one important gap was the lack of a compelling set of cases showing that UA can be feasibly conducted at varying levels of sophistication, and that such assessment can usefully inform decision-relevant modeling conclusions. This article orients the reader to the 11 other articles that comprise the special issue, and which span multiple methods and application domains, all with an explicit consideration of uncertainty. We highlight the value of UA demonstrated in the articles, including changing decisions, facilitating transparency, and clarifying the nature of evidence. We conclude by suggesting ways to promote further adoption of uncertainty analysis in ecosystem service assessments. These include: Easing the analytic workflows involved in UA while guarding against rote analyses, applying multiple models to the same problem, and learning about the conduct and value of UA from other disciplines

KRAS: feeding pancreatic cancer proliferation

Oncogenic KRAS mutation is the signature genetic event in the progression and growth of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), an almost universally fatal disease. Although it has been appreciated for some time that nearly 95% of PDAC harbor mutationally activated KRAS, to date no effective treatments that target this mutant protein have reached the clinic. A number of studies have shown that oncogenic KRAS plays a central role in controlling tumor metabolism by orchestrating multiple metabolic changes including stimulation of glucose uptake, differential channeling of glucose intermediates, reprogrammed glutamine metabolism, increased autophagy, and macropinocytosis. Here we review these recent findings and address how they may be applied to develop new PDAC treatments

"On the Spot": travelling artists and Abolitionism, 1770-1830

Until recently the visual culture of Atlantic slavery has rarely been critically scrutinised. Yet in the first decades of the nineteenth century slavery was frequently represented by European travelling artists, often in the most graphic, sometimes voyeuristic, detail. This paper examines the work of several itinerant artists, in particular Augustus Earle (1793-1838) and Agostino Brunias (1730–1796), whose very mobility along the edges of empire was part of a much larger circulatory system of exchange (people, goods and ideas) and diplomacy that characterised Europe’s Age of Expansion. It focuses on the role of the travelling artist, and visual culture more generally, in the development of British abolitionism between 1770 and 1830. It discusses the broad circulation of slave imagery within European culture and argues for greater recognition of the role of such imagery in the abolitionist debates that divided Britain. Furthermore, it suggests that the epistemological authority conferred on the travelling artist—the quintessential eyewitness—was key to the rhetorical power of his (rarely her) images. Artists such as Earle viewed the New World as a boundless source of fresh material that could potentially propel them to fame and fortune. Johann Moritz Rugendas (1802-1858), on the other hand, was conscious of contributing to a global scientific mission, a Humboldtian imperative that by the 1820s propelled him and others to travel beyond the traditional itinerary of the Grand Tour. Some artists were implicated in the very fabric of slavery itself, particularly those in the British West Indies such as William Clark (working 1820s) and Richard Bridgens (1785-1846); others, particularly those in Brazil, expressed strong abolitionist sentiments. Fuelled by evangelical zeal to record all aspects of the New World, these artists recognised the importance of representing the harsh realities of slave life. Unlike those in the metropole who depicted slavery (most often in caustic satirical drawings), many travelling artists believed strongly in the evidential value of their images, a value attributed to their global mobility. The paper examines the varied and complex means by which visual culture played a significant and often overlooked role in the political struggles that beset the period

Concurrent Inhibition of IGF1R and ERK Increases Pancreatic Cancer Sensitivity to Autophagy Inhibitors

The aggressive nature of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) mandates the development of improved therapies. As KRAS mutations are found in 95% of PDAC and are critical for tumor maintenance, one promising strategy involves exploiting KRAS-dependent metabolic perturbations. The macrometabolic process of autophagy is upregulated in KRAS-mutant PDAC, and PDAC growth is reliant on autophagy. However, inhibition of autophagy as monotherapy using the lysosomal inhibitor hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) has shown limited clinical efficacy. To identify strategies that can improve PDAC sensitivity to HCQ, we applied a CRISPR-Cas9 loss-of-function screen and found that a top sensitizer was the receptor tyrosine kinase (RTK) insulin-like growth factor 1 receptor (IGF1R). Additionally, reverse phase protein array pathway activation mapping profiled the signaling pathways altered by chloroquine (CQ) treatment. Activating phosphorylation of RTKs, including IGF1R, was a common compensatory increase in response to CQ. Inhibition of IGF1R increased autophagic flux and sensitivity to CQ-mediated growth suppression both in vitro and in vivo. Cotargeting both IGF1R and pathways that antagonize autophagy, such as ERK-MAPK axis, was strongly synergistic. IGF1R and ERK inhibition converged on suppression of glycolysis, leading to enhanced dependence on autophagy. Accordingly, concurrent inhibition of IGF1R, ERK, and autophagy induced cytotoxicity in PDAC cell lines and decreased viability in human PDAC organoids. In conclusion, targeting IGF1R together with ERK enhances the effectiveness of autophagy inhibitors in PDAC. Significance: Compensatory upregulation of IGF1R and ERK- MAPK signaling limits the efficacy of autophagy inhibitors chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, and their concurrent inhibition synergistically increases autophagy dependence and chloroquine sensitivity in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.Peer reviewe

Long-Term ERK Inhibition in

Induction of compensatory mechanisms and ERK reactivation has limited the effectiveness of Raf and MEK inhibitors in -mutant cancers. We determined that direct pharmacologic inhibition of ERK suppressed the growth of a subset of -mutant pancreatic cancer cell lines and that concurrent phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K) inhibition caused synergistic cell death. Additional combinations that enhanced ERK inhibitor action were also identified. Unexpectedly, long-term treatment of sensitive cell lines caused senescence, mediated in part by MYC degradation and p16 reactivation. Enhanced basal PI3K-AKT-mTOR signaling was associated with de novo resistance to ERK inhibitor, as were other protein kinases identified by kinome-wide siRNA screening and a genetic gain-of-function screen. Our findings reveal distinct consequences of inhibiting this kinase cascade at the level of ERK

Decadal changes in fire frequencies shift tree communities and functional traits

Global change has resulted in chronic shifts in fire regimes. Variability in the sensitivity of tree communities to multi-decadal changes in fire regimes is critical to anticipating shifts in ecosystem structure and function, yet remains poorly understood. Here, we address the overall effects of fire on tree communities and the factors controlling their sensitivity in 29 sites that experienced multi-decadal alterations in fire frequencies in savanna and forest ecosystems across tropical and temperate regions. Fire had a strong overall effect on tree communities, with an average fire frequency (one fire every three years) reducing stem density by 48% and basal area by 53% after 50 years, relative to unburned plots. The largest changes occurred in savanna ecosystems and in sites with strong wet seasons or strong dry seasons, pointing to fire characteristics and species composition as important. Analyses of functional traits highlighted the impact of fire-driven changes in soil nutrients because frequent burning favoured trees with low biomass nitrogen and phosphorus content, and with more efficient nitrogen acquisition through ectomycorrhizal symbioses. Taken together, the response of trees to altered fire frequencies depends both on climatic and vegetation determinants of fire behaviour and tree growth, and the coupling between fire-driven nutrient losses and plant traits