Generating Similar Graphs From Spherical Features

We propose a novel model for generating graphs similar to a given example graph. Unlike standard approaches that compute features of graphs in Euclidean space, our approach obtains features on a surface of a hypersphere. We then utilize a von Mises-Fisher distribution, an exponential family distribution on the surface of a hypersphere, to define a model over possible feature values. While our approach bears similarity to a popular exponential random graph model (ERGM), unlike ERGMs, it does not suffer from degeneracy, a situation when a significant probability mass is placed on unrealistic graphs. We propose a parameter estimation approach for our model, and a procedure for drawing samples from the distribution. We evaluate the performance of our approach both on the small domain of all 8-node graphs as well as larger real-world social networks.Comment: 29 pages, 14 figures, 1 tabl

Analysis of Indian monsoon daily rainfall on subseasonal to multidecadal time-scales using a hidden Markov model

A 70-year record of daily monsoon-season rainfall at a network of 13 stations in central western India is analyzed using a 4-state homogeneous hidden Markov model. The diagnosed states are seen to play distinct roles in the seasonal march of the monsoon, can be associated with 'active' and 'break' monsoon phases and capture the northward propagation of convective disturbances associated with the intraseasonal oscillation. Interannual variations in station rainfall are found to be associated with the alternation, from year to year, in the frequency of occurrence of wet and dry states; this mode of variability is well correlated with both all-India monsoon rainfall and an index characterizing the strength of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Analysis of low-passed time series suggests that variations in state frequency are responsible for the modulation of monsoon rainfall on multidecadal time-scales as well

Probabilistic Assessment of Drought Characteristics using a Hidden Markov Model

Droughts are evaluated using drought indices that measure the departure of meteorological and hydrological variables such as precipitation and stream flow from their long-term averages. While there are many drought indices proposed in the literature, most of them use pre-defined thresholds for identifying drought classes ignoring the inherent uncertainties in characterizing droughts. In this study, a hidden Markov model (HMM) [1] is developed for probabilistic classification of drought states. The HMM captures space and time dependence in the data. The proposed model is applied to assess drought characteristics in Indiana using monthly precipitation and stream flow data. The comparison of HMM based drought index with standard precipitation index (SPI) [2] suggests that the HMM index provides more intuitive results

Learning mixed kronecker product graph models with simulated method of moments

ABSTRACT There has recently been a great deal of work focused on developing statistical models of graph structure-with the goal of modeling probability distributions over graphs from which new, similar graphs can be generated by sampling from the estimated distributions. Although current graph models can capture several important characteristics of social network graphs (e.g., degree, path lengths), many of them do not generate graphs with sufficient variation to reflect the natural variability in real world graph domains. One exception is the mixed Kronecker Product Graph Model (mKPGM), a generalization of the Kronecker Product Graph Model, which uses parameter tying to capture variance in the underlying distribution In this work, we present the first learning algorithm for mKPGMs. The O(|E|) algorithm searches over the continuous parameter space using constrained line search and is based on simulated method of moments, where the objective function minimizes the distance between the observed moments in the training graph and the empirically estimated moments of the model. We evaluate the mKPGM learning algorithm by comparing it to several different graph models, including KPGMs. We use multi-dimensional KS distance to compare the generated graphs to the observed graphs and the results show mKPGMs are able to produce a closer match to real-world graphs (10-90% reduction in KS distance), while still providing natural variation in the generated graphs

Learning mixed kronecker product graph models with simulated method of moments

ABSTRACT There has recently been a great deal of work focused on developing statistical models of graph structure-with the goal of modeling probability distributions over graphs from which new, similar graphs can be generated by sampling from the estimated distributions. Although current graph models can capture several important characteristics of social network graphs (e.g., degree, path lengths), many of them do not generate graphs with sufficient variation to reflect the natural variability in real world graph domains. One exception is the mixed Kronecker Product Graph Model (mKPGM), a generalization of the Kronecker Product Graph Model, which uses parameter tying to capture variance in the underlying distribution In this work, we present the first learning algorithm for mKPGMs. The O(|E|) algorithm searches over the continuous parameter space using constrained line search and is based on simulated method of moments, where the objective function minimizes the distance between the observed moments in the training graph and the empirically estimated moments of the model. We evaluate the mKPGM learning algorithm by comparing it to several different graph models, including KPGMs. We use multi-dimensional KS distance to compare the generated graphs to the observed graphs and the results show mKPGMs are able to produce a closer match to real-world graphs (10-90% reduction in KS distance), while still providing natural variation in the generated graphs

Subseasonal-to-interdecadal variability of the Australian monsoon over North Queensland

Daily rainfall occurrence and amount at 11 stations over North Queensland are examined for summers 1958–1998, using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Daily rainfall variability is described in terms of the occurrence of five discrete ‘weather states’, identified by the HMM. Three states are characterized respectively by very wet, moderately wet, and dry conditions at most stations; two states have enhanced rainfall along the coast and dry conditions inland. Each HMM rainfall state is associated with a distinct atmospheric circulation regime. The two wet states are accompanied by monsoonal circulation patterns with large-scale ascent, low-level inflow from the north-west, and a phase reversal with height; the dry state is characterized by circulation anomalies of the opposite sense. Two of the states show significant associations with midlatitude synoptic waves. Variability of the monsoon on time-scales from subseasonal to interdecadal is interpreted in terms of changes in the frequency of occurrence of the five HMM rainfall states. Large subseasonal variability is identified in terms of active and break phases, and a highly variable monsoon onset date. The occurrence of the very wet and dry states is somewhat modulated by the Madden–Julian oscillation. On interannual time-scales, there are clear relationships with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Interdecadal monsoonal variability is characterized by stronger monsoons during the 1970s, and weaker monsoons plus an increased prevalence of drier states in the later part of the record. Stochastic simulations of daily rainfall occurrence and amount at the 11 stations are generated by introducing predictors based on large-scale precipitation from (a) reanalysis data, (b) an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) run with observed SST forcing and (c) antecedent June–August Pacific SST anomalies. The reanalysis large-scale precipitation yields relatively accurate station-level simulations of the interannual variability of daily rainfall amount and occurrence, with rainfall intensity less well simulated. At some stations, interannual variations in 10-day dry-spell frequency are also simulated reasonably well. The interannual quality of the simulations is markedly degraded when the GCM simulations are used as inputs, while antecedent Pacific SST inputs yield an anomaly correlation skill comparable to that of the GCM

Subseasonal-to-interdecadal variability of the Australian monsoon over North Queensland

Daily rainfall occurrence and amount at 11 stations over North Queensland are examined for summers 1958–1998, using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Daily rainfall variability is described in terms of the occurrence of five discrete ‘weather states’, identified by the HMM. Three states are characterized respectively by very wet, moderately wet, and dry conditions at most stations; two states have enhanced rainfall along the coast and dry conditions inland. Each HMM rainfall state is associated with a distinct atmospheric circulation regime. The two wet states are accompanied by monsoonal circulation patterns with large-scale ascent, low-level inflow from the north-west, and a phase reversal with height; the dry state is characterized by circulation anomalies of the opposite sense. Two of the states show significant associations with midlatitude synoptic waves. Variability of the monsoon on time-scales from subseasonal to interdecadal is interpreted in terms of changes in the frequency of occurrence of the five HMM rainfall states. Large subseasonal variability is identified in terms of active and break phases, and a highly variable monsoon onset date. The occurrence of the very wet and dry states is somewhat modulated by the Madden–Julian oscillation. On interannual time-scales, there are clear relationships with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Interdecadal monsoonal variability is characterized by stronger monsoons during the 1970s, and weaker monsoons plus an increased prevalence of drier states in the later part of the record. Stochastic simulations of daily rainfall occurrence and amount at the 11 stations are generated by introducing predictors based on large-scale precipitation from (a) reanalysis data, (b) an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) run with observed SST forcing and (c) antecedent June–August Pacific SST anomalies. The reanalysis large-scale precipitation yields relatively accurate station-level simulations of the interannual variability of daily rainfall amount and occurrence, with rainfall intensity less well simulated. At some stations, interannual variations in 10-day dry-spell frequency are also simulated reasonably well. The interannual quality of the simulations is markedly degraded when the GCM simulations are used as inputs, while antecedent Pacific SST inputs yield an anomaly correlation skill comparable to that of the GCM