A Bayesian Model for Cluster Detection

The detection of areas in which the risk of a particular disease is significantly elevated, leading to an excess of cases, is an important enterprise in spatial epidemiology. Various frequentist approaches have been suggested for the detection of “clusters” within a hypothesis testing framework. Unfortunately, these suffer from a number of drawbacks including the difficulty in specifying a p-value threshold at which to call significance, the inherent multiplicity problem, and the possibility of multiple clusters. In this paper, we suggest a Bayesian approach to detecting “areas of clustering” in which the study region is partitioned into, possibly multiple, “zones” within which the risk is either at a null, or non-null, level. Computation is carried out using Markov chain Monte Carlo, tuned to the model that we develop. The method is applied to leukemia data in upstate New York

Assimilation of Perimeter Data and Coupling with Fuel Moisture in a Wildland Fire - Atmosphere DDDAS

We present a methodology to change the state of the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the fire spread code SFIRE, based on Rothermel's formula and the level set method, and with a fuel moisture model. The fire perimeter in the model changes in response to data while the model is running. However, the atmosphere state takes time to develop in response to the forcing by the heat flux from the fire. Therefore, an artificial fire history is created from an earlier fire perimeter to the new perimeter, and replayed with the proper heat fluxes to allow the atmosphere state to adjust. The method is an extension of an earlier method to start the coupled fire model from a developed fire perimeter rather than an ignition point. The level set method is also used to identify parameters of the simulation, such as the spread rate and the fuel moisture. The coupled model is available from openwfm.org, and it extends the WRF-Fire code in WRF release.Comment: ICCS 2012, 10 pages; corrected some DOI typesetting in the reference

Rapid Oscillations in Cataclysmic Variables. XVI. DW Cancri

We report photometry and spectroscopy of the novalike variable DW Cancri. The spectra show the usual broad H and He emission lines, with an excitation and continuum slope characteristic of a moderately high accretion rate. A radial-velocity search yields strong detections at two periods, 86.1015(3) min and 38.58377(6) min. We interpret these as respectively the orbital period P_orb of the binary, and the spin period P_spin of a magnetic white dwarf. The light curve also shows the spin period, plus an additional strong signal at 69.9133(10) min, which coincides with the difference frequency 1/P_spin-1/P_orb. These periods are stable over the 1 year baseline of measurement. This triply-periodic structure mimics the behavior of several well-credentialed members of the "DQ Herculis" (intermediate polar) class of cataclysmic variables. DQ Her membership is also suggested by the mysteriously strong sideband signal (at nu_spin-nu_orb), attesting to a strong pulsed flux at X-ray/EUV/UV wavelengths. DW Cnc is a new member of this class, and would be an excellent target for extended observation at these wavelengths.Comment: PDF, 28 pages, 6 tables, 9 figures; accepted, in press, to appear June 2004, PASP; more info at http://cba.phys.columbia.edu

Giant cell arteritis: immune and vascular aging as disease risk factors

Susceptibility for giant cell arteritis increases with chronological age, in parallel with age-related restructuring of the immune system and age-induced remodeling of the vascular wall. Immunosenescence results in shrinkage of the naïve T-cell pool, contraction of T-cell diversity, and impairment of innate immunity. Aging of immunocompetent cells forces the host to take alternative routes for protective immunity and confers risk for pathogenic immunity that causes chronic inflammatory tissue damage. Dwindling immunocompetence is particularly relevant as the aging host is forced to cope with an ever growing infectious load. Immunosenescence coincides with vascular aging during which the arterial wall undergoes dramatic structural changes and medium and large arteries lose their pliability and elasticity. On the molecular level, elastic fibers deteriorate and matrix proteins accumulate biochemical modifications. Thus, the aging process impacts the two major biologic systems that liaise to promote giant cell arteritis; the immune system and the vessel wall niche

Evaluating User Satisfaction and Organisational Benefits of Electronic Medication Management System in an Australian Hospital

In this conceptual paper, we speculate on the possibility that a PhD by Artefact and Exegesis (A&E) may be legitimate in the Information Systems (IS) discipline. Research, as creative process and product with the intention of yielding new knowledge, takes many forms across the spectrum of academic disciplines. Other disciplines, particularly in the humanities’ fields of arts and design, have artefacts as a discrete part of their PhD product accompanied by an exegesis of one form or another. It may be that some research in the IS discipline lends itself to the A&E approach. This paper considers A&E PhDs in Humanities and how practice-based research is presented. We explore how A&E might apply to IS research, through comparison with the design science approach. We suggest tentative impacts on candidates, supervisors and examiners then conclude with the issues and open questions raised by our investigations

Neutrino Parameters, Abelian Flavor Symmetries, and Charged Lepton Flavor Violation

Neutrino masses and mixings have important implications for models of fermion masses, and, most directly, for the charged lepton sector. We consider supersymmetric Abelian flavor models, where neutrino mass parameters are related to those of charged leptons and sleptons. We show that processes such as \tau to \mu\gamma, \mu to e\gamma and \mu-e conversion provide interesting probes. In particular, some existing models are excluded by current bounds, while many others predict rates within reach of proposed near future experiments. We also construct models in which the predicted rates for charged lepton flavor violation are below even the proposed experimental sensitivities, but argue that such models necessarily involve loss of predictive power.Comment: 27 pages, refs added, published versio

Chiral phase transitions and quantum critical points of the D3/D7(D5) system with mutually perpendicular E and B fields at finite temperature and density

We study chiral symmetry restoration with increasing temperature and density in gauge theories subject to mutually perpendicular electric and magnetic fields using holography. We determine the chiral symmetry breaking phase structure of the D3/D7 and D3/D5 systems in the temperature-density-electric field directions. A magnetic field may break the chiral symmetry and an additional electric field induces Ohm and Hall currents as well as restoring the chiral symmetry. At zero temperature the D3/D5 system displays a line of holographic BKT phase transitions in the density-electric field plane, while the D3/D7 system shows a mean-field phase transition. At intermediate temperatures, the transitions in the density-electric field plane are of first order at low density, transforming to second order at critical points as density rises. At high temperature the transition is only ever first order.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures, v2: Added a referenc

Improving Refrigerant Flammability Limit Test Methods Based on ASTM E681

An improved test method for refrigerant flammability limit measurements is presented. Such measurements are essential for determining the lower flammability limits of refrigerants, and thus their safety classifications. Predicated on expert interviews and experiments, several changes to ASTM E681 and related standards are recommended, as follows. The 12 L glass vessel should be replaced with transparent polycarbonate (or other transparent plastic) to eliminate etching by HF and to facilitate vessel penetrations. The orientation of the electrode supports and the temperature probe should be changed from vertical to horizontal to prevent flame quenching. Venting should not occur before the flame stops propagating near the vessel wall. All penetrations should be removed from the rubber stopper, it should be weighted for a total mass of 2.5 kg, and the initial pressure should be 90 kPa absolute. The flame angle should be plotted versus refrigerant concentration, whereby a least-squares line determines the flammability limit at a flame angle of 90°. Finally, the vessel pressure should be measured during each test to evaluate the pressure rise during flame propagation and to help identify the onset of venting. These changes are relatively easy to implement and they improve the test precision and reproducibility without significantly changing previously established flammability limits