Probability matching priors for some parameters of the bivariate normal distribution

This paper develops some objective priors for certain parameters of the bivariate normal distribution. The parameters considered are the regression coefficient, the generalized variance, and the ratio of the conditional variance of one variable given the other to the marginal variance of the other variable. The criterion used is the asymptotic matching of coverage probabilities of Bayesian credible intervals with the corresponding frequentist coverage probabilities. The paper uses various matching criteria, namely, quantile matching, matching of distribution functions, highest posterior density matching, and matching via inversion of test statistics. One particular prior is found which meets all the matching criteria individually for all the parameters of interest.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/074921708000000066 the IMS Collections (http://www.imstat.org/publications/imscollections.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Prediction of overall survival for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer : development of a prognostic model through a crowdsourced challenge with open clinical trial data

Background Improvements to prognostic models in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer have the potential to augment clinical trial design and guide treatment strategies. In partnership with Project Data Sphere, a not-for-profit initiative allowing data from cancer clinical trials to be shared broadly with researchers, we designed an open-data, crowdsourced, DREAM (Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods) challenge to not only identify a better prognostic model for prediction of survival in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer but also engage a community of international data scientists to study this disease. Methods Data from the comparator arms of four phase 3 clinical trials in first-line metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were obtained from Project Data Sphere, comprising 476 patients treated with docetaxel and prednisone from the ASCENT2 trial, 526 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone, and placebo in the MAINSAIL trial, 598 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone or prednisolone, and placebo in the VENICE trial, and 470 patients treated with docetaxel and placebo in the ENTHUSE 33 trial. Datasets consisting of more than 150 clinical variables were curated centrally, including demographics, laboratory values, medical history, lesion sites, and previous treatments. Data from ASCENT2, MAINSAIL, and VENICE were released publicly to be used as training data to predict the outcome of interest-namely, overall survival. Clinical data were also released for ENTHUSE 33, but data for outcome variables (overall survival and event status) were hidden from the challenge participants so that ENTHUSE 33 could be used for independent validation. Methods were evaluated using the integrated time-dependent area under the curve (iAUC). The reference model, based on eight clinical variables and a penalised Cox proportional-hazards model, was used to compare method performance. Further validation was done using data from a fifth trial-ENTHUSE M1-in which 266 patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were treated with placebo alone. Findings 50 independent methods were developed to predict overall survival and were evaluated through the DREAM challenge. The top performer was based on an ensemble of penalised Cox regression models (ePCR), which uniquely identified predictive interaction effects with immune biomarkers and markers of hepatic and renal function. Overall, ePCR outperformed all other methods (iAUC 0.791; Bayes factor >5) and surpassed the reference model (iAUC 0.743; Bayes factor >20). Both the ePCR model and reference models stratified patients in the ENTHUSE 33 trial into high-risk and low-risk groups with significantly different overall survival (ePCR: hazard ratio 3.32, 95% CI 2.39-4.62, p Interpretation Novel prognostic factors were delineated, and the assessment of 50 methods developed by independent international teams establishes a benchmark for development of methods in the future. The results of this effort show that data-sharing, when combined with a crowdsourced challenge, is a robust and powerful framework to develop new prognostic models in advanced prostate cancer.Peer reviewe

Likelihood-based Inference for the Ratios of Regression Coefficients in Linear Models

Adjusted profile likelihood, Adjustments to profile likelihood, Conditional profile likelihood, Expected length of confidence interval, Integrated likelihood, Orthogonal transformation, Profile likelihood,

Mass Spectrometric Screening of Ovarian Cancer with Serum Glycans

Changes of glycosylation pattern in serum proteins have been linked to various diseases including cancer, suggesting possible development of novel biomarkers based on the glycomic analysis. In this study, N-linked glycans from human serum were quantitatively profiled by matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry (MS) and compared between healthy controls and ovarian cancer patients. A training set consisting of 40 healthy controls and 40 ovarian cancer cases demonstrated an inverse correlation between P value of ANOVA and area under the curve (AUC) of each candidate biomarker peak from MALDI-TOF MS, providing standards for the classification. A multibiomarker panel composed of 15 MALDI-TOF MS peaks resulted in AUC of 0.89, 80~90% sensitivity, and 70~83% specificity in the training set. The performance of the biomarker panel was validated in a separate blind test set composed of 23 healthy controls and 37 ovarian cancer patients, leading to 81~84% sensitivity and 83% specificity with cut-off values determined by the training set. Sensitivity of CA-125, the most widely used ovarian cancer marker, was 74% in the training set and 78% in the test set, respectively. These results indicate that MALDI-TOF MS-mediated serum N-glycan analysis could provide critical information for the screening of ovarian cancer

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