Fixed versus Flexible: Lessons from EMS Order Flow

This paper addresses the puzzle of regime-dependent volatility in foreign exchange. We extend the literature in two ways. First, our microstructural model provides a qualitatively new explanation for the puzzle. Second, we test implications of our model using Europe's recent shift to rigidly fixed rates (EMS to EMU). In the model, shocks to order flow induce volatility under flexible rates because they have portfolio-balance effects on price, whereas under fixed rates the same shocks do not have portfolio-balance effects. These effects arise in one regime and not the other because the elasticity of speculative demand for foreign exchange is (endogenously) regime-dependent: low elasticity under flexible rates magnifies portfolio-balance effects; under credibly fixed rates, elasticity of speculative demand is infinite, eliminating portfolio-balance effects. New data on FF/DM transactions show that order flow had persistent effects on the exchange rate before EMU parities were announced. After announcement, determination of the FF/DM rate was decoupled from order flow, as predicted by the model.

Men and women from the STRIDE clinical trial: An assessment of stimulant abstinence symptom severity at residential treatment entry

Background and Objectives Gender‐specific factors associated with stimulant abstinence severity were examined in a stimulant abusing or dependent residential treatment sample (N = 302). Method Bivariate statistics tested gender differences in stimulant abstinence symptoms, measured by participant‐reported experiences of early withdrawal. Multivariate linear regression examined gender and other predictors of stimulant abstinence symptom severity. Results Women compared to men reported greater stimulant abstinence symptom severity. Anxiety disorders and individual anxiety‐related abstinence symptoms accounted for this difference. African American race/ethnicity was predictive of lower stimulant abstinence severity. Discussion and Conclusions Women were more sensitive to anxiety‐related stimulant withdrawal symptoms. Scientific Significance Clinics that address anxiety‐related abstinence symptoms, which more commonly occur in women, may improve treatment outcome. (Am J Addict 2015;XX:XX –XX

Paying the forest for electricity: A modelling framework to market forest conservation as payment for ecosystem services benefiting hydropower generation

Published in PESC Special issue: Payments for ecosystem services in conservation: performance and prospectsThe operation and longevity of hydropower dams are often negatively impacted by sedimentation. Forest conservation can reduce soil erosion, and therefore efforts to maintain upstream forest cover within a watershed contribute to the economic life span of a hydropower facility. The cost of forest conservation can be viewed as an investment in hydropower and be financed via a payment for ecosystem services (PES) scheme. A novel modelling framework is used to estimate payments for forest conservation consisting of: (1) land-use change projection; (2)watershed erosion modelling; (3) reservoir sedimentation estimation; (4) power generation loss calculation; and (5) PES scheme design. The framework was applied to a proposed dam in Cambodia (Pursat 1). The estimated net present value of forest conservation was US$4.7 million when using average annual climate values over 100 years, or US$ 6.4 million when considering droughts every eight years. This can be remunerated with annual payments ofUS$4.26ha-1 or US$ 5.78ha-1, respectively, covering forest protection costs estimated at US$ 0.9 ha-1 yr-1. The application of this type of PES represents a rational option that allows for conservation and development of hydropower watersheds susceptible to erosion and sedimentation

Paying the forest for electricity: A modelling framework to market forest conservation as payment for ecosystem services benefiting hydropower generation

Published in PESC Special issue: Payments for ecosystem services in conservation: performance and prospectsThe operation and longevity of hydropower dams are often negatively impacted by sedimentation. Forest conservation can reduce soil erosion, and therefore efforts to maintain upstream forest cover within a watershed contribute to the economic life span of a hydropower facility. The cost of forest conservation can be viewed as an investment in hydropower and be financed via a payment for ecosystem services (PES) scheme. A novel modelling framework is used to estimate payments for forest conservation consisting of: (1) land-use change projection; (2)watershed erosion modelling; (3) reservoir sedimentation estimation; (4) power generation loss calculation; and (5) PES scheme design. The framework was applied to a proposed dam in Cambodia (Pursat 1). The estimated net present value of forest conservation was US$4.7 million when using average annual climate values over 100 years, or US$ 6.4 million when considering droughts every eight years. This can be remunerated with annual payments ofUS$4.26ha-1 or US$ 5.78ha-1, respectively, covering forest protection costs estimated at US$ 0.9 ha-1 yr-1. The application of this type of PES represents a rational option that allows for conservation and development of hydropower watersheds susceptible to erosion and sedimentation

RFID in the production line for work flow improvement

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology can be used in many different applications. There are numerous instances of RFID being used in everyday life. For instance, anyone who works in a secure office, goes to university, drives a car with an immobiliser or parks in a secure car park. Other scenarios include the tracking of animals in the farming industry when cattle and sheep need to be identified by the farmer. Another instance where RFID can be used, is in the manufacturing industry. Tags can be attached to items that are moving through the factory on conveyer belts or being moved around by staff on trucks or forklifts. As the tags move around the factory floor or the warehouse they pass by readers and the tags can be then tracked using intelligent software and database application. In fact, radio Frequency Identification systems are becoming more and more embedded in the supply chain. Tracking goods in the work place has been identified as one area where production can be improved. In fact, in almost all non “green field ” modern manufacturing facilities, there are work flow process systems that can be improved to reduce the overall work load and increase the total work throughput. This project will look at a “real life ” manufacturing facility, assess its current work flow process, evaluate them against industries best practices and seek to integrate RFID to help stream line work flow. After assessment, the RFID solution will be implemented to tackle the highlighted areas. This will be achieved by understanding the client‟s current situation, industrial best practices and how RFID technology can be implemented now and modified in the future to continue to maximize efficiency. The expected outcome o

Eliminating Malaria Vectors.

Malaria vectors which predominantly feed indoors upon humans have been locally eliminated from several settings with insecticide treated nets (ITNs), indoor residual spraying or larval source management. Recent dramatic declines of An. gambiae in east Africa with imperfect ITN coverage suggest mosquito populations can rapidly collapse when forced below realistically achievable, non-zero thresholds of density and supporting resource availability. Here we explain why insecticide-based mosquito elimination strategies are feasible, desirable and can be extended to a wider variety of species by expanding the vector control arsenal to cover a broader spectrum of the resources they need to survive. The greatest advantage of eliminating mosquitoes, rather than merely controlling them, is that this precludes local selection for behavioural or physiological resistance traits. The greatest challenges are therefore to achieve high biological coverage of targeted resources rapidly enough to prevent local emergence of resistance and to then continually exclude, monitor for and respond to re-invasion from external populations

Target product profiles for protecting against outdoor malaria transmission.

BACKGROUND\ud \ud Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual sprays (IRS) have decimated malaria transmission by killing indoor-feeding mosquitoes. However, complete elimination of malaria transmission with these proven methods is confounded by vectors that evade pesticide contact by feeding outdoors.\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud For any assumed level of indoor coverage and personal protective efficacy with insecticidal products, process-explicit malaria transmission models suggest that insecticides that repel mosquitoes will achieve less impact upon transmission than those that kill them outright. Here such models are extended to explore how outdoor use of products containing either contact toxins or spatial repellents might augment or attenuate impact of high indoor coverage of LLINs relying primarily upon contact toxicity.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud LLIN impact could be dramatically enhanced by high coverage with spatial repellents conferring near-complete personal protection, but only if combined indoor use of both measures can be avoided where vectors persist that prefer feeding indoors upon humans. While very high levels of coverage and efficacy will be required for spatial repellents to substantially augment the impact of LLINs or IRS, these ambitious targets may well be at least as practically achievable as the lower requirements for equivalent impact using contact insecticides.\ud \ud CONCLUSIONS\ud \ud Vapour-phase repellents may be more acceptable, practical and effective than contact insecticides for preventing outdoor malaria transmission because they need not be applied to skin or clothing and may protect multiple occupants of spaces outside of treatable structures such as nets or houses

The importance of considering community-level effects when selecting insecticidal malaria vector products

BACKGROUND\ud \ud Insecticide treatment of nets, curtains or walls and ceilings of houses represent the primary means for malaria prevention worldwide. Direct personal protection of individuals and households arises from deterrent and insecticidal activities which divert or kill mosquitoes before they can feed. However, at high coverage, community-level reductions of mosquito density and survival prevent more transmission exposure than the personal protection acquired by using a net or living in a sprayed house.\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud A process-explicit simulation of malaria transmission was applied to results of 4 recent Phase II experimental hut trials comparing a new mosaic long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) which combines deltamethrin and piperonyl butoxide with another LLIN product by the same manufacturer relying on deltamethrin alone.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud Direct estimates of mean personal protection against insecticide-resistant vectors in Vietnam, Cameroon, Burkina Faso and Benin revealed no clear advantage for combination LLINs over deltamethrin-only LLINs (P = 0.973) unless both types of nets were extensively washed (Relative mean entomologic inoculation rate (EIR) ± standard error of the mean (SEM) for users of combination nets compared to users of deltamethrin only nets = 0.853 ± 0.056, P = 0.008). However, simulations of impact at high coverage (80% use) predicted consistently better impact for the combination net across all four sites (Relative mean EIR ± SEM in communities with combination nets, compared with those using deltamethrin only nets = 0.613 ± 0.076, P < 0.001), regardless of whether the nets were washed or not (P = 0.467). Nevertheless, the degree of advantage obtained with the combination varied substantially between sites and their associated resistant vector populations.\ud \ud CONCLUSION\ud \ud Process-explicit simulations of community-level protection, parameterized using locally-relevant experimental hut studies, should be explicitly considered when choosing vector control products for large-scale epidemiological trials or public health programme procurement, particularly as growing insecticide resistance necessitates the use of multiple active ingredients

An affordable, quality-assured community-based system for high-resolution entomological surveillance of vector mosquitoes that reflects human malaria infection risk patterns.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: More sensitive and scalable entomological surveillance tools are required to monitor low levels of transmission that are increasingly common across the tropics, particularly where vector control has been successful. A large-scale larviciding programme in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania is supported by a community-based (CB) system for trapping adult mosquito densities to monitor programme performance. Methodology An intensive and extensive CB system for routine, longitudinal, programmatic surveillance of malaria vectors and other mosquitoes using the Ifakara Tent Trap (ITT-C) was developed in Urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and validated by comparison with quality assurance (QA) surveys using either ITT-C or human landing catches (HLC), as well as a cross-sectional survey of malaria parasite prevalence in the same housing compounds. RESULTS: Community-based ITT-C had much lower sensitivity per person-night of sampling than HLC (Relative Rate (RR) [95% Confidence Interval (CI)] = 0.079 [0.051, 0.121], P < 0.001 for Anopheles gambiae s.l. and 0.153 [0.137, 0.171], P < 0.001 for Culicines) but only moderately differed from QA surveys with the same trap (0.536 [0.406,0.617], P = 0.001 and 0.747 [0.677,0.824], P < 0.001, for An. gambiae or Culex respectively). Despite the poor sensitivity of the ITT per night of sampling, when CB-ITT was compared with QA-HLC, it proved at least comparably sensitive in absolute terms (171 versus 169 primary vectors caught) and cost-effective (153US$versus 187US$ per An. gambiae caught) because it allowed more spatially extensive and temporally intensive sampling (4284 versus 335 trap nights distributed over 615 versus 240 locations with a mean number of samples per year of 143 versus 141). Despite the very low vectors densities (Annual estimate of about 170 An gambiae s.l bites per person per year), CB-ITT was the only entomological predictor of parasite infection risk (Odds Ratio [95% CI] = 4.43[3.027,7. 454] per An. gambiae or Anopheles funestus caught per night, P =0.0373). Discussion and conclusion CB trapping approaches could be improved with more sensitive traps, but already offer a practical, safe and affordable system for routine programmatic mosquito surveillance and clusters could be distributed across entire countries by adapting the sample submission and quality assurance procedures accordingly

HI absorption in radio galaxies: effect of orientation or interstellar medium?

A search for HI absorption has been made in 23 radio galaxies using the ATCA, the VLA and the WSRT. In five galaxies HI absorption was detected. We investigate how the detection rate is distributed among galaxies with different radio and optical properties. Among the Fanaroff-Riley (FR) type I radio galaxies, only one object (10% of total) was detected. The HI absorption in these objects is likely to come from a nuclear disk, as found for other galaxies of this type. The low detection rate is consistent with the hypothesis (as suggested by optical and X-ray data) that the ``standard'' pc scale, geometrically thick torus is not required in low-luminosity radio galaxies. In the case of FR type-II powerful radio galaxies, no HI absorption has been detected in broad line radio galaxies, while three out of four narrow-line radio galaxies have been detected (the one non-detection having quite a high upper limit). All these are compact or small radio galaxies. To first order this is consistent with the predictions of the unified schemes, assuming that the HI absorption is due to an obscuring torus. However, the indications of this being the only cause of the absorption are not very strong. In particular, we find that in two of the three detected objects that the HI is blueshifted compared to the systemic velocity. In the third galaxy (PKS 1549-79) two redshift systems (from the optical lines) are found. The uncertainty in the systemic velocity derived from optical lines is discussed. Finally, we find a tendency for radio galaxies with a strong component of young stellar population and far-IR emission to show HI absorption. The overall richer ISM that is likely to be present in these galaxies may be a factor in producing the absorption