Probabilistic studies with Eject! for Matlab

The program "Eject!" calculates the trajectories of ballistic projectiles from volcanic eruptions (Mastin, 2001; 2011). The code was originally written in Visual Basic, which we have now translated into an editable Matlab procedure (Strehlow et al., 2017). Input parameters used here are exemplary for the case of Ruapehu volcano, but can be adapted to any specific case. Additionally, we have written a short script that compares the flight trajectory to the topography of the volcano to determine the flight distance

Eject! for Matlab

The program "Eject!" calculates the trajectories of ballistic projectiles from volcanic eruptions (Mastin, 2001; 2011). The code was originally written in Visual Basic, which we have now translated into an editable Matlab procedure (Strehlow et al., 2017). Input parameters used here are exemplary for the case of Ruapehu volcano, but can be adapted to any specific case. Additionally, we have written a short script that compares the flight trajectory to the topography of the volcano to determine the flight distance

Understanding Degassing Pathways Along the 1886 Tarawera (New Zealand) Volcanic Fissure by Combining Soil and Lake CO₂ Fluxes

CO₂ flux measurements are often used to monitor volcanic systems, understand the cause of volcanic unrest, and map sub-surface structures. Currently, such measurements are incomplete at Tarawera (New Zealand), which erupted with little warning in 1886 and produced a ∼17 km long fissure. We combine new soil CO₂ flux and C isotope measurements of Tarawera with previous data from Rotomahana and Waimangu (regions also along the 1886 fissure) to fingerprint the CO₂ source, understand the current pathways for degassing, quantify the CO₂ released along the entire fissure, and provide a baseline survey. The total CO₂ emissions from the fissure are 1227 t⋅d⁻¹ (742–3398 t⋅d⁻¹ 90 % confidence interval), similar to other regions in the Taupō Volcanic Zone. The CO₂ flux from Waimangu and Rotomahana is far higher than from Tarawera (>549 vs. ∼4 t⋅d⁻¹ CO₂), likely influenced by a shallow silicic body at depth and Okataina caldera rim faults increasing permeability at the southern end of the fissure. Highly localized regions of elevated CO2 flux occur along the fissure and are likely caused by cross-cutting faults that focus the flow. One of these areas occurs on Tarawera, which is emitting ∼1 t⋅d⁻¹ CO₂ with a δ¹³CO₂ of −5.5 ± 0.5 ‰, and comparison with previous observations shows that activity is declining over time. This region highlights the spatial and temporal complexity of degassing pathways at volcanoes and that sub-surface structures exert a primary control on the magnitude of CO₂ flux in comparison to the surface mechanism (i.e., CO₂ released through the soil or lake surface)

The microanalysis of iron and sulphur oxidation states in silicate glass - Understanding the effects of beam damage

Quantifying the oxidation state of multivalent elements in silicate melts (e.g., Fe²⁺ versus Fe³⁺ or S²⁻ versus S⁶⁺) is fundamental for constraining oxygen fugacity. Oxygen fugacity is a key thermodynamic parameter in understanding melt chemical history from the Earth's mantle through the crust to the surface. To make these measurements, analyses are typically performed on small (<100 µm diameter) regions of quenched volcanic melt (now silicate glass) forming the matrix between crystals or as trapped inclusions. Such small volumes require microanalysis, with multiple techniques often applied to the same area of glass to extract the full range of information that will shed light on volcanic and magmatic processes. This can be problematic as silicate glasses are often unstable under the electron and photon beams used for this range of analyses. It is therefore important to understand any compositional and structural changes induced within the silicate glass during analysis, not only to ensure accurate measurements (and interpretations), but also that subsequent analyses are not compromised. Here, we review techniques commonly used for measuring the Fe and S oxidation state in silicate glass and explain how silicate glass of different compositions responds to electron and photon beam irradiation

Phreatic eruptions at crater lakes: occurrence statistics and probabilistic hazard forecast

Phreatic eruptions, although posing a serious threat to people in crater proximity, are often underestimated and have been comparatively understudied. The detailed eruption catalogue for Ruapehu Volcano (New Zealand) provides an exceptional opportunity to study the statistics of recurring phreatic explosions at a crater lake volcano. We performed a statistical analysis on this phreatic eruption database, which suggests that phreatic events at Ruapehu do not follow a Poisson process. Instead they tend to cluster, which is possibly linked to an increased heat flow during periods of a more shallow-seated magma column. Larger explosions are more likely to follow shortly after smaller events, as opposed to longer periods of quiescence. The absolute probability for a phreatic explosion to occur at Ruapehu within the next month is about 10%, when averaging over the last 70 years of recording. However, the frequency of phreatic explosions is significantly higher than the background level in years prior to magmatic episodes. Combining clast ejection simulations with a Bayesian event tree tool (PyBetVH) we perform a probabilistic assessment of the hazard due to ballistic ejecta in the summit area of Ruapehu, which is frequently visited by hikers. Resulting hazard maps show that the absolute probability for the summit to be affected by ballistics within the next month is up to 6%. The hazard is especially high on the northern lakeshore, where there is a mountain refuge. Our results contribute to the local hazard assessment as well as the general perception of hazards due to steam-driven explosions

High spatial resolution analysis of the iron oxidation state in silicate glasses using the electron probe

The iron oxidation state in silicate melts is important for understanding their physical properties, although it is most often used to estimate the oxygen fugacity of magmatic systems. Often high spatial resolution analyses are required, yet the available techniques, such as μXANES and μMössbauer, require synchrotron access. The flank method is an electron probe technique with the potential to measure Fe oxidation state at high spatial resolution but requires careful method development to reduce errors related to sample damage, especially for hydrous glasses. The intensity ratios derived from measurements on the flanks of FeLα and FeLβ X-rays (FeLβf/FeLαf) over a time interval (time-dependent ratio flank method) can be extrapolated to their initial values at the onset of analysis. We have developed and calibrated this new method using silicate glasses with a wide range of compositions (43–78 wt% SiO2, 0–10 wt% H2O, and 2–18 wt% FeOT, which is all Fe reported as FeO), including 68 glasses with known Fe oxidation state. The Fe oxidation state (Fe2+/FeT) of hydrous (0–4 wt% H2O) basaltic (43–56 wt% SiO2) and peralkaline (70–76 wt% SiO2) glasses with FeOT > 5 wt% can be quantified with a precision of ±0.03 (10 wt% FeOT and 0.5 Fe2+/FeT) and accuracy of ±0.1. We find basaltic and peralkaline glasses each require a different calibration curve and analysis at different spatial resolutions (∼20 and ∼60 μm diameter regions, respectively). A further 49 synthetic glasses were used to investigate the compositional controls on redox changes during electron beam irradiation, where we found that the direction of redox change is sensitive to glass composition. Anhydrous alkali-poor glasses become reduced during analysis, while hydrous and/or alkali-rich glasses become oxidized by the formation of magnetite nanolites identified using Raman spectroscopy. The rate of reduction is controlled by the initial oxidation state, whereas the rate of oxidation is controlled by SiO2, Fe, and H2O content