Population and Fertility by Age and Sex for 195 Countries and Territories, 1950-2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress

Introducing New Vaccines in Developing Countries: Concepts and Approaches to Estimating Burden of Haemophilus influenzae Type b-associated Disease

In the past 30 years, great strides have been made in immunizing infants and children routinely in developing countries under the Expanded Programme on Immunization. Despite this, the introduction of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccines has progressed rather slowly compared to previously-introduced vaccines for infant immunizations. This slower uptake has been attributed partly to the need for data on the burden of invasive Hib disease. To understand this need, conceptual underpinnings and prerequisites were explored for Hib disease-burden studies. Methodological approaches were also reviewed for conducting Hib disease-burden studies that may be considered in developing countries. Potential studies span a range of designs that provide varying levels of clinical, laboratory and epidemiologic evidence of the burden of invasive Hib disease. Carefully-conducted studies can lay the foundation for complementary studies of long-term disability due to invasive Hib disease, national economic analysis, and field evaluations of vaccine. Studies done in collaboration with national agencies and clinical investigators will maximize study value and provide critical data for national decision- makers who make choices regarding the introduction of Hib vaccines

Ebola Virus Infection: Overview and Update on Prevention and Treatment

In 2014 and 2015, the largest Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in history affected large populations across West Africa. The goal of this report is to provide an update on the epidemic and review current progress in the development, evaluation and deployment of prevention and treatment strategies for EVD. Relevant information was identified through a comprehensive literature search using Medline, PubMed and CINAHL Complete and using the search terms Ebola, Ebola virus disease, Ebola hemorrhagic fever, West Africa outbreak, Ebola transmission, Ebola symptoms and signs, Ebola diagnosis, Ebola treatment, vaccines for Ebola and clinical trials on Ebola. Through 22 July 2015, a total of 27,741 EVD cases and 11,284 deaths were reported from all affected countries. Several therapeutic agents and novel vaccines for EVD have been developed and are now undergoing evaluation. Concurrent with active case investigation, contact tracing, surveillance and supportive care to patients and communities, there has been rapid progress in the development of new therapies and vaccines against EVD. Continued focus on strengthening clinical and public health infrastructure will have direct benefits in controlling the spread of EVD and will provide a strong foundation for deployment of new drugs and vaccines to affected countries when they become available. The unprecedented West Africa Ebola outbreak, response measures, and ensuing drug and vaccine development suggest that new tools for Ebola control may be available in the near future

Trends in Legionnaires\u27 Disease-Associated Hospitalizations, United States, 2006-2010

Background: Legionella pneumophila is a waterborne cause of both healthcare-associated and community-acquired pneumonia. Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 is responsible for 80% of infections. There is currently limited published disease burden data on Legionnaires\u27 disease-associated hospitalization in the United States. Methods: In this study, we estimated the annual incidence of Legionnaires\u27 disease-associated hospitalizations in United States and identified demographic, temporal, and regional characteristics of individuals hospitalized for Legionnaires\u27 disease. A retrospective study was conducted using the National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS) data from 2006 to 2010. The NHDS is a nationally representative US survey, which includes estimates of inpatient stays in short-stay hospitals in the United States, excluding federal, military, and Veterans Administration hospitals. All discharges assigned with the Legionnaires\u27 disease International Classification of Diseases 9th Clinical Modification discharge diagnostic code (482.84) were included in this study. Results: We observed the annual incidence and number of Legionnaires\u27 disease-associated hospitalizations (per 100 000 population) in the United States by year, age, sex, race, and region. Over a 5-year period, 14 574 individuals experienced Legionnaires\u27 disease-associated hospitalizations in the United States The annual population-adjusted incidence (per 100 000 population) of Legionnaires\u27 disease-associated hospitalizations was 5.37 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.12-5.64) in 2006, 7.06 (95% CI, 6.80-7.40) in 2007, 8.77 (95% CI, 8.44-9.11) in 2008, 17.07 (95% CI, 16.62-17.54) in 2009, and 9.66 (95% CI, 9.32-10.01) in 2010. A summer peak of Legionnaires\u27 disease-associated hospitalizations occurred from June through September in 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2010. Conclusions: Legionnaires\u27 disease-associated hospitalizations significantly increased over the 5-year study period. The increasing disease burden of Legionnaires\u27 disease suggests that large segments of the US population are at risk for exposure to this waterborne pathogen

Cross-Sectional Survey of Perceived Barriers Among Community Pharmacists Who Do Not Immunize, in Wayne County, Michigan

Introduction: The goal of the study was to identify perceived barriers to implementation of vaccination services encountered by independent and small-chain community pharmacies in an urban setting. Methods: Pharmacists in independent and small-chain pharmacies located in 29 Michigan ZIP codes were visited and asked to complete a 5- to 10-min semi-structured interview. Results: A total of 93 independent and 12 small-chain pharmacies participated (n = 105; 61%). The pharmacies filled an average of 700 prescriptions each week with 1.1 pharmacist full-time equivalents and 57 h of technician time. The most common services that participating pharmacies provided were dispensing outpatient medication (99%), medication therapy management (MTM, 65.7%), disease management or coaching (54.3%), point-of-care testing (34.3%), and dispensing medications to inpatient facilities (16.2%). Only seven pharmacies (6.7%) administered vaccinations. When pharmacists were asked to identify what it would take to start to administer vaccines, the most common responses were increased demand from patients (37.1%), adequate time (19%), appropriate space (17.1%), appropriate amount of staff (14.3%), change in attitudes or beliefs of the owner or pharmacists at that pharmacy (13.3%), increased profit related to vaccines (11.4%), and increased awareness among patients about the importance of vaccines (11.4%). The majority of pharmacies (65.3%) reported that only one factor would need to change to start to administer vaccines. Conclusion: Independent and small-chain community pharmacies in an urban, primarily low-income area identified several barriers that have prevented implementation of vaccination services. However, the majority of pharmacies reported that only one factor would need to change in order to begin to administer vaccines. Interventional efforts necessary to address commonly cited barriers may include providing education to pharmacists about the need for community pharmacy-based immunization programs in addition to services provided by physician offices, as well as the importance of proactively providing immunization-related recommendations to patients

Trends in Pneumonia and Influenza-associated Hospitalizations in South Korea, 2002-2005

Pneumonia and influenza are leading causes of morbidity and mortality across the globe. Korea has established the national health-insurance system to cover the entire Korean population since 1989. The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiologic trends in pneumonia and influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths using the Korean National Health Insurance databases and national vital statistics. During 2002-2005, 989,472 hospitalizations and 10,543 deaths due to pneumonia and influenza were recorded. Eighty-one percent of the hospitalizations were related to diagnoses with unspecified aetiology. The average annual rate of hospitalizations due to pneumonia and influenza was 5.2 per 1,000 people [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.2-5.3], and the hospitalization rate increased by 28% (from 4.5 to 5.8 per 1,000 people) during the four-year study period. In addition, deaths due to pneumonia and influenza increased by 48% (2,829 during 2003, 3,522 during 2004, and 4,192 during 2005). Overall, the national burden of hospitalizations and deaths due to pneumonia and influenza in Korea was high, and it increased for all age-groups during the study period. A comprehensive review of potential interventions by the government authorities should aim to reduce the burden of pneumonia and influenza

Prevalence of rotavirus diarrhea among hospitalized under-five children

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of rotavirus diarrhea among hospitalized children less than 5 years of age in Kerala State and to determine the circulating strains of rotavirus in Kerala. Desigh: Multicenter, cross-sectional study. Setting: Eight representative hospitals in Kunnathunadu Thaluk, Ernakulam district, Kerala. Participants: Children in the age group under 5 years. Methods: Hospitalized children admitted with acute diarrhea were examined and standardized case report form was used to collect demographic, clinical and health outcome. Stool specimens were collected and ELISA testing was done. ELISA rotavirus positive samples were tested by reverse transcription PCR for G and P typing (CMC Vellore). Results: Among the 1827 children, 648 (35.9%) were positive for rotavirus by the Rotaclone ELISA test. The prevalence of rotavirus diarrhea in infants less than 6 months of age was 24.7%; 6- 11 months 31.9%; 12- 23 months 41.9%; 24- 35 months 46.9%; and 33.3% in 36- 59 months. Rotavirus infections were most common during the dry months from January through May. G1P[8] (49.7%) was the most common strain identified followed by G9P[8] (26.4%), G2P[4] (5.5%), G9P[4] (2.6%) and G12P[6] (1.3%). Conclusions: The prevalence of rotavirus diarrhea among hospitalized children less than 5 years is high in Ernakulam district, Kerala State

Treatment Costs of Pneumonia, Meningitis, Sepsis, and Other Diseases among Hospitalized Children in Viet Nam

The aim of this study was to estimate the costs of treatment of children who present with the signs and symptoms of invasive bacterial diseases in Khanh Hoa province, Viet Nam. The study was an incidence-based cost-of-illness analysis from the health system perspective. The hospital costs included labour, materials and capital costs, both direct and indirect. Costs were determined for 980 children, with an average age of 12.67 months (standard deviation±11.38), who were enrolled in a prospective surveillance at the Khanh Hoa General Hospital during 2005-2006. Of them, 57% were male. By disease-category, 80% were suspected of having pneumonia, 8% meningitis, 3% very severe disease consistent with pneumococcal sepsis, and 9% other diseases. Treatment costs for suspected pneumonia, meningitis, very severe disease, and other diseases were US$31, US$ 57, US$73, and US$ 24 respectively. Costs ranged from US$24 to US$ 164 across different case-categories. Both type of disease and age of patient had statistically significant effects on treatment costs. The results showed that treatment costs for bacterial diseases in children were considerable and might differ by as much as seven times among invasive pneumococcal diseases. Changes in costs were sensitive to both age of patient and case-category. These cost-of-illness data will be an important component in the overall evidence base to guide the development of vaccine policy in Viet Nam

Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification Methods for Diagnosis of Bacterial Meningitis

The rapid, accurate, and efficient identification of an infectious disease is critical to ensure timely clinical treatment and prevention in public health settings. In 2015, meningitis caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Neisseria meningitidis was responsible for 379,200 (range: 322,700–444,700) deaths. Clinical features alone cannot determine whether bacterial meningitis is present; an analysis of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) is essential. Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) is a nucleic acid amplification method offering an alternative to polymerase chain reaction (PCR). LAMP-based assays for detection of three leading bacteria in CSF for diagnosis of meningitis have been established. The typing assays using LAMP for detection of meningococcal serogroups A, B, C, W, X, and Y as well as H. influenzae serotypes a, b, c, d, e, and f were launched. In comparative analysis of the meningitis pathogen assays, LAMP assays did not yield false negative results, and the detection rate of LAMP assays was superior compared with PCR or conventional culture methods. LAMP assays provide accurate and rapid test results to detect major bacterial meningitis pathogens. Accumulating evidence suggests that LAMP assays have the potential to provide urgently needed diagnostics for bacterial meningitis in resource-limited settings of both developed and developing countries

Who is exposed to smoke at home? A population-based cross-sectional survey in central Vietnam

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