How Natural is Nature? The Effect of Burning on Presettlement Vegetation in West-Central Illinois

When the first Euroamericans arrived in North America, they thought they were seeing a “wilderness,” unaltered by human hands. However, they were actually seeing highly managed environments. Kilburn and Brugam examine the impact of the burning of forests and prairies by Native Americans on the plant species in west-central Illinois

Randomised controlled trial of fish oil supplement to treat cancer cachexia

Patients with advanced cancer often suffer from cachexia, a debilitating and complex extreme weight loss syndrome which is also associated with shorter survival times. A pragmatic randomised controlled trial was conducted to determine whether an oral nutritional supplement containing the omega-3 fatty acid eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) was able to improve quality of life and survival times of patients with advanced solid tumour cancer in a mixed tumour cancer type population

The blue suns of 1831: was the eruption of Ferdinandea, near Sicily, one of the largest volcanic climate forcing events of we nineteenth century?

One of the largest climate forcing eruptions of the nineteenth century was, until recently, believed to have taken place at the Babuyan Claro volcano, in the Philippines, in 1831. However, a recent investigation found no reliable evidence of such an eruption, suggesting that the 1831 eruption must have taken place elsewhere. We here present our newly compiled dataset of reported observations of a blue, purple and green sun in August 1831, which we use to reconstruct the transport of a stratospheric aerosol plume from that eruption. The source of the aerosol plume is identified as the eruption of Ferdinandea, which took place about 50 km off the south-west coast of Sicily (37.1∘ N, 12.7∘ E), in July and August 1831. The modest magnitude of this eruption, assigned a volcanic explosivity index (VEI) of 3, has commonly caused it to be discounted or overlooked when identifying the likely source of the stratospheric sulfate aerosol in 1831. It is proposed, however, that convective instability in the troposphere contributed to aerosol reaching the stratosphere and that the aerosol load was enhanced by addition of a sedimentary sulfur component to the volcanic plume. Thus, one of the largest climate forcing volcanic eruptions of the nineteenth century would effectively have been hiding in plain sight, arguably “lowering the bar” for the types of eruptions capable of having a substantial climate forcing impact. Prior estimates of the mass of stratospheric sulfate aerosol responsible for the 1831 Greenland ice core sulfate deposition peaks which have assumed a source eruption at a low-latitude site will, therefore, have been overstated. The example presented in this paper serves as a useful reminder that VEI values were not intended to be reliably correlated with eruption sulfur yields unless supplemented with compositional analyses. It also underlines that eye-witness accounts of historical geophysical events should not be neglected as a source of valuable scientific data

Probabilistic approach to decision-making under uncertainty during volcanic crises: retrospective application to the El Hierro (Spain) 2011 volcanic crisis

© 2014, The Author(s). Understanding the potential evolution of a volcanic crisis is crucial for designing effective mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for volcanoes close to densely populated regions, where inappropriate decisions may trigger widespread loss of life, economic disruption, and public distress. An outstanding goal for improving the management of volcanic crises, therefore, is to develop objective, real-time methodologies for evaluating how an emergency will develop and how scientists communicate with decision-makers. Here, we present a new model Bayesian Decision Model (BADEMO) that applies a general and flexible, probabilistic approach to managing volcanic crises. The model combines the hazard and risk factors that decision-makers need for a holistic analysis of a volcanic crisis. These factors include eruption scenarios and their probabilities of occurrence, the vulnerability of populations and their activities, and the costs of false alarms and failed forecasts. The model can be implemented before an emergency, to identify actions for reducing the vulnerability of a district; during an emergency, to identify the optimum mitigating actions and how these may change as new information is obtained; and after an emergency, to assess the effectiveness of a mitigating response and, from the results, to improve strategies before another crisis occurs. As illustrated by a retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands, BADEMO provides the basis for quantifying the uncertainty associated with each recommended action as an emergency evolves and serves as a mechanism for improving communications between scientists and decision-makers.This research has been funded by the European Commission (FP7 Theme: ENV.2011.1.3.3-1; Grant 282759: VUELCO).Peer Reviewe

Fracture of andesite in the brittle and brittle-ductile transition regimes

see Abstract volum

Randomised controlled trial of fish oil supplement to treat cancer cachexia

This is the protocol for a review and there is no abstract. The objectives are as follows: Our overall aim is to provide an overview of interventions for preventing falls in older people by summarising the evidence from multiple Cochrane intervention reviews that evaluate the effects (primarily, rate of falls and number of fallers) of these interventions in different populations of older people, such as those defined by setting or by specific medical conditions. Fall prevention interventions will include those in the following categories: supervised or unsupervised exercises; medication; surgery; management of urinary incontinence; fluid or nutrition therapy; psychological; environment and assistive technologies; social environment; knowledge/education interventions and any other interventions that do not fall into one of these categories (Lamb 2007). Interventions tested may belong to one category ('single' intervention), or more than one category ('multiple' and 'multifactorial' interventions)

Literature searches and reviews related to the prevalence of food allergy in Europe

In 2011, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) received a mandate from the Food Safety Authority of Ireland (FSAI) to review the available scientific data on the prevalence of each food allergy in Europe, to derive threshold concentrations for each allergen in foods when possible, and to review the analytical methods available for the detection/quantification of food allergens. This report presents the findings of a series of systematic reviews of the literature related to these aims. Systematic searches of relevant bibliographic databases and the grey literature were conducted, studies were selected for inclusion according to pre-specified criteria, relevant data was extracted from all included studies, and the quality of included studies assessed. The first systematic review examined the literature on the prevalence of food allergy (IgE-mediated and non-IgE mediated) in different regions of the World and in individual European countries for different age groups in relation to each of the following food allergens: milk/dairy, eggs, cereals, peanuts, nuts, celery, crustaceans, fish, molluscs, soy, lupin, mustard and sesame. For each of these allergens changes in prevalence trends over time were also examined. Additionally, emerging food allergens in different European countries were identified. Of the 7333 articles identified by the searches, data from 92 studies was included, 52 of which reported on studies conducted within Europe. The second systematic review examined the effects of food processing on the allergenicity of foods in relation to each of the following food allergens: milk/dairy, eggs, cereals, peanuts, nuts, celery, crustaceans, fish, molluscs, soy, lupin, mustard and sesame. From 1040 articles identified by the searches, 25 studies were included in this review. The final systematic review examined the evidence regarding the new analytical methods available to analyse/detect the food allergens considered in the previous systematic reviews in processed foods. From 1475 articles identified by the searches, 84 studies were included

Tectonic stress and renewed uplift at Campi Flegrei caldera, southern Italy: New insights from caldera drilling

Deep drilling is a key tool for the investigation of active volcanoes in the modern Earth Sciences, as this provides the only means to obtain direct information on processes that occur at depth. Data acquired from drilling projects are fundamental to our understanding of volcano dynamics, and for mitigation of the hazards they pose for millions of people who live close to active volcanoes. We present here the first borehole measurement of the stress field in the crust of Campi Flegrei (southern Italy), a large active caldera, and one of the highest risk volcanoes worldwide. Measurements were performed to depths of ∼500 m during a pilot study for the Campi Flegrei Deep Drilling Project. These data indicate an extensional stress field, with a minimum horizontal stress of ca. 75% to 80% of the maximum horizontal stress, which is approximately equal to the vertical stress. The deviation from lithostatic conditions is consistent with a progressive increase in applied horizontal stress during episodes of unrest, since at least 1969. As the stress field is evolving with time, the outcome of renewed unrest cannot be assessed by analogy with previous episodes. Interpretations of future unrest must therefore accommodate the possibility that Campi Flegrei is approaching conditions that are more favourable to a volcanic eruption than has previously been the case. Such long-term accumulation of stress is not expected to be unique to Campi Flegrei, and so might provide a basis for improved forecasts of eruptions at large calderas elsewhere